{"publisher":{"name":"MediaBias News","url":"https://mediabias.news","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology","editorialPrinciples":"https://mediabias.news/editorial-principles","corrections":"https://mediabias.news/corrections"},"scoreGuide":{"trust":"How well corroborated and evidenced the source reporting is. 0-100, higher is better.","critic":"Craft quality of the source journalism: context, balance, fact vs comment. 0-100, higher is better.","hype":"How far the source presentation runs ahead of substance. 0-100, LOWER IS BETTER.","scope":"Scores assess the original reporting this article was written from, not the truth of the underlying event and not the quality of this write-up."},"assessmentGuide":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"story":{"id":"https://mediabias.news/business/152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds","slug":"152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds","url":"https://mediabias.news/business/152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds","title":"152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds","subtitle":"A study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified wallets with a near-perfect win rate betting on military events.","excerpt":"Research by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that 152 Polymarket wallets traded on inside information about US military operations, with an average win rate of 97.2%. The activity has raised national security concerns and prompted calls for tighter regulation of prediction markets.","category":"Business & Economy","area":"United States","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T15:06:07.765Z","sourceReportedAt":"2026-08-20T14:24:09.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-20T15:06:07.765Z","readTime":"4 min read","scores":{"trust":78,"critic":65,"hype":25,"notes":{"trust":"11 digests corroborate Reuters' central claim; Devdiscourse adds named source and figures.","critic":"Reuters report quotes affected party and names next steps; others lack depth.","hype":"Headlines use 'raises alarm' and 'revealing secrets' but body stays measured."}},"tags":["#PredictionMarkets","#InsiderTrading","#USMilitary","#NationalSecurity","#Polymarket"],"entities":["Anti-Corruption Data Collective","Polymarket International","US military","Reuters","Devdiscourse"],"body":[{"type":"key_takeaways","items":["The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 Polymarket wallets that bet on US military events with an average win rate of 97.2%.","The wallets generated $8 million in profits, according to Moneycontrol, raising concerns about insider trading and national security.","The study suggests foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades, despite Polymarket’s monitoring efforts.","Calls for tighter regulation of prediction markets have followed, with experts warning that law enforcement alone is insufficient."]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"A study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that 152 wallets on the Polymarket International platform traded on inside information about US military operations. The wallets achieved an average win rate of 97.2%, as reported by Devdiscourse. The research, published on 20 August 2026, raises concerns that foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The wallets generated $8 million in profits, according to Moneycontrol. The study also noted that copycat trades by bots and wealthy investors may have amplified the signals, as reported by Devdiscourse. Polymarket’s public ledger makes it easier to detect unusual betting patterns, but experts argue that current monitoring measures are inadequate."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The Anti-Corruption Data Collective called for tighter regulation of prediction markets, including banning markets susceptible to insider trading. The study was partly driven by a case involving a US soldier accused of using classified information to bet on political events, as detailed in the full report by Devdiscourse."},{"type":"heading","text":"What the coverage left out"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"None of the right-rated digests mentioned the 97.2% win rate reported by Devdiscourse. The left-rated digest from Al-Monitor did not include the $8 million profit figure reported by Moneycontrol. The centre-rated digests from Benzinga and WTVB did not detail the role of copycat trades or the calls for tighter regulation."}],"basedOn":[{"sourceName":"NDTV","url":"https://ndtv.com/world-news/inside-orcas-how-150-traders-made-millions-betting-on-us-military-moves-11936898","headline":"Inside \"Orcas\": How 150 Traders Made Millions Betting On US Military Moves","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T14:24:09.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Sapo","url":"https://pplware.sapo.pt/internet/apostas-na-polymarket-podem-estar-a-revelar-segredos-militares-dos-eua","headline":"Betting at Polymarket May Be Revealing U.S. Military Secrets","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T13:51:06.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Benzinga","url":"https://benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/08/61328731/polymarket-faces-fresh-insider-trading-scrutiny-after-152-wallets-allegedly-made-8-million-betting-on-us-military-markets-report","headline":"Polymarket Bets Raise Red Flags as 150+ Wallets Flagged For US Military Information Leaks - JPMorgan Chas","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T13:34:46.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Publico","url":"https://publico.pt/2026/08/20/mundo/noticia/utilizadores-polymarket-poderao-estar-apostar-base-segredos-militares-2185587","headline":"Polymarket Users May Be Betting Based on Military Secrets.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T13:34:40.445Z"},{"sourceName":"Devdiscourse","url":"https://devdiscourse.com/article/business/3965893-insider-trading-in-prediction-markets-raises-national-security-concerns","headline":"Insider Trading in Prediction Markets Raises National Security Concerns","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T12:58:17.100Z"},{"sourceName":"Seeking Alpha","url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4635340-research-calls-for-probe-of-potential-insider-bets-on-military-information-on-polymarket","headline":"Research group calls for probe of potential insider bets on military information on Polymarket","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T11:59:18.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Moneycontrol","url":"https://moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/polymarket-war-bets-raise-alarm-as-152-wallets-post-97-win-rate-make-8-million-14011568.html","headline":"Polymarket war bets raise alarm as 152 wallets post 97% win rate, make $8 million","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T10:50:14.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Straits Times","url":"https://straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-on-military-secrets-research-finds","headline":"More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T10:17:10.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Internazionale","url":"https://internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/08/20/exclusive-more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-on-military-secrets-research-finds","headline":"Exclusive-More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T10:15:21.000Z"},{"sourceName":"WTVB","url":"https://wtvbam.com/2026/08/20/exclusive-more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-on-military-secrets-research-finds","headline":"Exclusive-More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T10:15:03.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Reuters","url":"https://reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20","headline":"EXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T10:06:16.026Z"},{"sourceName":"Al-Monitor","url":"https://al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/exclusive-more-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research","headline":"Exclusive-More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T06:15:21.000Z"}],"analysis":{"distribution":{"percent":{"left":10,"centre":40,"right":50},"count":{"left":1,"centre":4,"right":5},"totalSources":12,"untracked":2,"rated":10,"observedAt":"2026-08-20T16:00:17.971963+00:00"},"lifecycle":{"state":"developing","lastCheckedAt":"2026-08-20T16:30:27.733Z","closedAt":null,"checks":6,"changes":0,"reopened":false},"framing":{"left":["The left-rated digest from Al-Monitor led on the national security implications of the trades. It reported that the research, conducted by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, found more than 150 wallets may have traded on inside US military information. The digest also noted concerns that foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades."],"centre":["The centre-rated digests from Reuters, Benzinga, WTVB, and Devdiscourse all led on the number of wallets involved and the potential for insider trading. Reuters and WTVB reported that more than 150 wallets may have traded on inside US military information, while Benzinga highlighted the national security concerns raised by the activity. Devdiscourse’s full report detailed the 97.2% win rate and the $8 million in profits, as well as the role of copycat trades in amplifying signals."],"right":["The right-rated digests from NDTV, Sapo, Seeking Alpha, Moneycontrol, and The Straits Times focused on the financial gains and the scale of the activity. NDTV’s digest noted that the wallets made millions, while Sapo and The Straits Times reported that more than 150 wallets were involved. Moneycontrol’s digest highlighted the $8 million in profits and the role of copycat trades. Seeking Alpha’s digest called for an investigation into potential insider bets on military information."],"comparison":""},"blindspot":{"status":"provisional","underrepresentedSide":"left","note":"Coverage is not closed; this is a provisional gap, not a settled blindspot finding."},"sourceFactualityDistribution":{"mixed":2,"high":3,"unknown":3,"veryHigh":4},"ownershipDistribution":{"privateEquity":1,"mediaConglomerate":2,"billionaire":2,"independent":1,"other":1,"corporation":3},"firstDatedReport":{"sourceName":"Al-Monitor","url":"https://al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/exclusive-more-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T06:15:21.000Z"},"countries":[{"country":"Lisboa, Portugal","count":2},{"country":"Washington, District of Columbia, United States","count":1},{"country":"London, Greater London, England, United Kingdom","count":1},{"country":"Singapore, Singapore","count":1},{"country":"Mumbai, Konkan Division, Maharashtra, 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