{"publisher":{"name":"MediaBias News","url":"https://mediabias.news","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology","editorialPrinciples":"https://mediabias.news/editorial-principles","corrections":"https://mediabias.news/corrections"},"scoreGuide":{"trust":"How well corroborated and evidenced the source reporting is. 0-100, higher is better.","critic":"Craft quality of the source journalism: context, balance, fact vs comment. 0-100, higher is better.","hype":"How far the source presentation runs ahead of substance. 0-100, LOWER IS BETTER.","scope":"Scores assess the original reporting this article was written from, not the truth of the underlying event and not the quality of this write-up."},"assessmentGuide":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"story":{"id":"https://mediabias.news/business/california-billionaire-tax-may-yield-less-revenue-study-says","slug":"california-billionaire-tax-may-yield-less-revenue-study-says","url":"https://mediabias.news/business/california-billionaire-tax-may-yield-less-revenue-study-says","title":"California billionaire tax may yield less revenue, study says","subtitle":"Stanford economists caution a proposed wealth tax could lead to significant income tax losses.","excerpt":"A proposed California tax on billionaires could generate substantially less revenue than anticipated, according to Stanford economists. The study suggests that wealth migration among billionaires may offset the tax's benefits, potentially leading to a net loss in state income tax revenue.","category":"Business & Economy","area":"United States","publishedAt":"2026-10-22T00:25:17.690Z","sourceReportedAt":"2026-10-19T18:16:37.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-22T00:25:17.690Z","readTime":"3 min read","scores":{"trust":68,"critic":95,"hype":15,"notes":{"trust":"Trust 68: multiple named sources and cited NBER working paper provide evidence, but only one outlet covered the story.","critic":"Critic 95: explains relevance, includes quotes from union and economists, separates facts, gives specific figures and next steps.","hype":"Hype 15: language is measured; no sensationalism or clickbait beyond factual reporting."}},"tags":["#California","#BillionaireTax","#Economics","#Taxation","#Proposition40"],"entities":["Benjamin Jaros","Joshua Rauh","Peter Thiel","Larry Page","Sergey Brin","Debru Carthan","SEIU-UHW"],"body":[{"type":"key_takeaways","items":["Stanford economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh estimate California's proposed billionaire tax would generate about $30 billion, significantly less than the $100 billion projected by proponents.","Seven billionaires, including Peter Thiel, Larry Page, and Sergey Brin, have relocated from California, removing an estimated $540 billion or 30% of the state's billionaire wealth.","The economists predict California could lose $1 billion to $3.5 billion annually in income tax revenue due to this decrease in its billionaire population.","A Citrin-Politico poll indicates voter sentiment is divided, with 46% favoring the proposition and 43% opposing it."]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Stanford economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh have estimated that California's proposed billionaire tax, Proposition 40, may generate approximately $30 billion in revenue. This figure is considerably lower than the $100 billion projected by supporters of the measure. The economists' working paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, suggests that the tax, which would impose a one-time 5% state tax on billionaire wealth, could be offset by future income tax losses."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The study highlights that seven billionaires, including Peter Thiel, Larry Page, and Sergey Brin, have moved out of California. This exodus represents an estimated $540 billion, or 30%, of the state's total billionaire wealth, removing it from potential taxation. Jaros and Rauh calculated that California could lose between $1 billion and $3.5 billion annually in income tax revenue as a result of its shrinking billionaire population. They concluded that these persistent losses, when valued in today's dollars, could exceed the wealth tax proceeds by about $39 billion."},{"type":"heading","text":"Disagreement on tax purpose and impact"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), which introduced the ballot measure, disputed the Stanford study's findings. Union vice president Debru Carthan stated that the tax's sole purpose is to ensure billionaires pay their fair share to prevent a healthcare system collapse and allow millions of Californians to keep their healthcare without premium increases. In contrast, the Stanford economists Jaros and Rauh wrote that their findings suggest the Billionaire Tax Act will not fulfill its intended functions, as behavioral responses prior to voting have already eroded much of the projected tax base. Other economists, including Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and Joseph Stiglitz, have supported the measure, noting California's increased venture funding since the tax was announced and arguing for public spending on essential services funded by the ultra-wealthy."},{"type":"heading","text":"What the coverage left out"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"No left- or right-rated reports were available for this story. The centre-rated report did not include the views of economists who support the measure, such as Daron Acemoglu and Joseph Stiglitz, beyond a brief mention that they have signed their support."}],"basedOn":[{"sourceName":"DiarioBitcoin","url":"https://diariobitcoin.com/estados-unidos/impuesto-a-multimillonarios-en-california-economistas-advierten-una-perdida-neta-de-usd-39-000-millones","headline":"California Billionaires Tax: Economists Warn a Net Loss of USD 39 Billion","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-10-22T00:28:07.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Fortune","url":"https://fortune.com/2026/10/21/california-billionaire-tax-prop-40-stanford-study-39-billion-loss","headline":"Billionaires fleeing California could turn a $30 billion tax windfall into a $39 billion loss, Stanford economists warn","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-10-21T20:42:26.000Z"},{"sourceName":"MSNBCTV 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