{"publisher":{"name":"MediaBias News","url":"https://mediabias.news","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology","editorialPrinciples":"https://mediabias.news/editorial-principles","corrections":"https://mediabias.news/corrections"},"scoreGuide":{"trust":"How well corroborated and evidenced the source reporting is. 0-100, higher is better.","critic":"Craft quality of the source journalism: context, balance, fact vs comment. 0-100, higher is better.","hype":"How far the source presentation runs ahead of substance. 0-100, LOWER IS BETTER.","scope":"Scores assess the original reporting this article was written from, not the truth of the underlying event and not the quality of this write-up."},"assessmentGuide":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"story":{"id":"https://mediabias.news/climate/el-nino-heatwave-could-cause-451000-deaths-globally","slug":"el-nino-heatwave-could-cause-451000-deaths-globally","url":"https://mediabias.news/climate/el-nino-heatwave-could-cause-451000-deaths-globally","title":"El Niño heatwave could cause 451,000 deaths globally","subtitle":"Climate Impact Lab report projects significant rise in heat-related fatalities between September 2026 and February 2027.","excerpt":"A new report from the Climate Impact Lab estimates that the current El Niño event could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027. India is projected to experience 15,800 of these deaths.","category":"Climate","area":"India","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:05:31.356Z","sourceReportedAt":"2026-09-23T11:31:40.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-23T12:05:31.356Z","readTime":"3 min read","scores":{"trust":42,"critic":57,"hype":60,"notes":{"trust":"The central claim is attributed to the Climate Impact Lab and University of Chicago, with specific figures provided.","critic":"The reporting is largely based on digests, with limited original reporting and a lack of direct quotes from affected parties.","hype":"Headlines use sensational language like 'Monster Weather' and 'Deadly El Niño' to describe the projected deaths."}},"tags":["#ClimateChange","#ElNino","#GlobalHealth","#Heatwave","#India"],"entities":["Climate Impact Lab","El Niño","India","Sahel region","Nigeria","Michael Greenstone"],"body":[{"type":"key_takeaways","items":["The Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally from September 2026 to February 2027 due to the current El Niño.","India is estimated to see 15,800 of these deaths, with nearly half occurring between December and February.","The Sahel region in Africa is projected to have the highest toll, with 66,800 additional deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria.","The report suggests that targeted emergency actions could save tens of thousands of lives."]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The current El Niño event is projected to cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab. This estimate is relative to average conditions during the same months from 1996 to 2025. The report, released on Wednesday, 23 September 2026, highlights that the toll is expected to be particularly high in the Global South."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"India could experience approximately 15,800 additional heat-related deaths during this period, with nearly half of these fatalities anticipated between December and February. The report also projects significant death tolls in other regions: 66,800 in Africa's Sahel region, including 31,400 in Nigeria; 19,400 in Southeast Asia (Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia); 19,300 in Indonesia; and 13,300 in Brazil."},{"type":"heading","text":"Disagreement on specific figures"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"While the global figure of 451,000 additional deaths is consistently reported across multiple sources, one outlet, jurnalul.ro, states that 239,000 deaths could occur by the end of February 2027, with the total rising to 451,000 if previous months since June are included. The Climate Impact Lab's statement accompanying the report describes the current El Niño as a 'postcard from our future', bringing temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver in 20 years."},{"type":"heading","text":"What the coverage left out"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"None of the left, centre, or right-rated reports mention the methodological limitations of the Climate Impact Lab's mortality estimate, which were detailed in The Hindu's full report. Specifically, the limitation that the report does not spell out the underlying numerical relationship or coefficients connecting a particular temperature increase to a number of deaths, with full methodological details to appear in a forthcoming peer-reviewed paper, was not mentioned in the digests or the full reports from Hindustan Times and Jyllands-Posten."}],"basedOn":[{"sourceName":"Anadolu Ajansı","url":"https://aa.com.tr/en/environment/current-el-nino-could-cause-451-000-heat-related-deaths-study-finds/4066293","headline":"Current El Nino Could Cause 451,000 Heat-Related Deaths, Study Finds","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T14:21:42.061Z"},{"sourceName":"Channel News Asia","url":"https://channelnewsasia.com/sustainability/super-el-nino-cause-extra-heat-deaths-research-6404406","headline":"El Nino could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths: Research","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T14:05:48.000Z"},{"sourceName":"belta.by","url":"https://belta.by/world/view/zhara-iz-za-fenomena-el-ninjo-mozhet-unesti-svyshe-450-tys-zhiznej-uchenye-802459-2026","headline":"The Heat From the El Niño Phenomenon Could Kill More than 450,000 People.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T14:00:33.536Z"},{"sourceName":"Channels Television","url":"https://channelstv.com/2026/09/23/el-nino-could-cause-451000-extra-heat-deaths-research","headline":"El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Extra Heat Deaths","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T14:00:33.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Straits Times","url":"https://straitstimes.com/world/europe/el-nino-could-cause-451000-extra-heat-deaths-research","headline":"El Nino could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths: Research","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T13:52:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"military-stuff.org","url":"https://military-stuff.org/super-el-nino-could-cause-451000-excess-deaths-worldwide-france-24-english","headline":"Super El Niño could cause 451,000 excess deaths worldwide • FRANCE 24 English","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T13:45:54.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Deník N","url":"https://denikn.cz/2193209/pohlednice-z-budoucnosti-super-el-nino-muze-v-pristich-mesicich-usmrtit-az-pul-milionu-lidi","headline":"\"Postcard From the future.\" Super El Niño Could Kill up to Half a Million People in the Coming Months","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T13:45:45.000Z"},{"sourceName":"France24","url":"https://france24.com/en/video/20260923-super-el-ni%C3%B1o-could-cause-451-000-excess-deaths-worldwide","headline":"Super El Niño could cause 451,000 excess deaths worldwide","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T13:43:52.636Z"},{"sourceName":"Newsit.gr","url":"https://newsit.gr/kosmos/souper-el-ninio-efialtiki-provlepsi-gia-pano-apo-450-000-thanatous-tous-epomenous-6-mines-oi-10-xores-pou-apeilountai-perissotero/4781436","headline":"Super El Niño: Nightmarish Prediction of over 450,000 Deaths in the Next 6 Months - The 10 Countries Most at Risk","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T13:38:57.000Z"},{"sourceName":"tvsarawak.my","url":"https://tvsarawak.my/2026/09/23/current-el-nino-could-cause-451000-heat-related-deaths-study-finds","headline":"Current El Nino could cause 451,000 heat-related deaths, study finds","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T13:36:37.000Z"},{"sourceName":"parismatch.com","url":"https://parismatch.com/actu/sciences/un-nombre-qui-peut-etre-vertigineux-super-el-nino-devrait-faire-450-000-morts-dans-le-monde-dici-six-mois-276261","headline":"\"A Number that Can Be Dizzying\": Super El Niño Is Expected to Kill 450,000 People in the World in Six Months","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T13:23:13.000Z"},{"sourceName":"tpo.nl","url":"https://tpo.nl/2026/09/23/super-el-nino-hittedoden-climate-impact-lab","headline":"According to Researchers, El Niño Could Claim 451,000 Heat-Related Deaths.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:50:17.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Haberler","url":"https://haberler.com/guncel/chicago-universitesi-arastirmasi-el-nino-kaynakli-20264534-haberi","headline":"A University of Chicago Study Predicts 451,000 Deaths From El Niño-Induced Heatwaves.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:47:38.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Watchers - Daily news service | Watchers.NEWS","url":"https://watchers.news/2026/09/23/el-nino-heat-could-cause-451-000-additional-deaths-worldwide-by-february-2027-as-pacific-temperatures-reach-record-levels","headline":"El Niño heat could cause 451 000 additional deaths worldwide by February 2027 as Pacific temperatures reach record levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:42:16.000Z"},{"sourceName":"ND Mais","url":"https://ndmais.com.br/meio-ambiente/super-el-nino-pode-causar-mais-de-450-mil-mortes","headline":"Super El Niño Can Cause More than 450,000 Deaths Due to Extreme Heat Until February; Brazil Is Among the Most Affected Countries","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:41:50.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Life.ru","url":"https://life.ru/p/uchenye-sprognozirovali-451-tysyachu-smertey-iz-za-super-el-nino","headline":"Scientists Predicted 451,000 Deaths Due to Super-El Niño.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:39:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Göteborgs-Posten","url":"https://gp.se/klimat/el-nino-kan-orsaka-450-000-dodsfall.0e476556-693c-5b75-a828-0e9018550c9d","headline":"Forecast: 450,000 Could Die From Heat","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:37:20.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Voice of Nigeria","url":"https://von.gov.ng/super-el-nino-heat-could-cause-451000-global-deaths-researchers","headline":"Super El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Global Deaths- Research","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:31:22.000Z"},{"sourceName":"realitatea.md","url":"https://realitatea.md/el-nino-ar-putea-provoca-peste-450-de-mii-de-decese-in-urmatoarele-luni-tarile-cele-mai-afectate","headline":"El Nino Could Cause More than 450 Thousand Deaths in the Following Months: the Most Affected Countries","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:31:16.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Sapo","url":"https://pplware.sapo.pt/?p=1142877","headline":"El Niño Can Kill Almost Half a Million People by February, Study Alert","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:30:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Republika Online","url":"https://news.republika.co.id/berita/tlth9v393/lembaga-riset-as-el-nino-bakal-tewaskan-19-ribu-orang-di-indonesia","headline":"US Research Institute: El Nino Will Kill 19,000 People in Indonesia","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:27:31.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Latestly","url":"https://latestly.com/world/super-el-nino-projected-to-cause-over-450000-deaths-across-globe-in-next-6-months-report-7617134.html","headline":"Super El Nino Projected To Cause Over 4,50,000 Deaths Across Globe in Next 6 Months: Report | 🌎 LatestLY","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:22:29.000Z"},{"sourceName":"alfavita.gr","url":"https://alfavita.gr/epistimi/561492_ereyna-sok-ektimiseis-gia-450000-thanatoys-logo-toy-el-ninio-eos-2027","headline":"Research - Shock: Estimates of 450,000 Deaths Due to El Niño by 2027","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:21:48.402Z"},{"sourceName":"24ur.com","url":"https://24ur.com/novice/tujina/super-el-nino-bi-lahko-v-pol-leta-zahteval-skoraj-pol-milijona-zivljenj.html","headline":"Super El Niño Could Claim Nearly Half a Million Lives in Half a Year","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:09:26.199Z"},{"sourceName":"Nepal Press : Facts First, Truth Foremost – Online News Portal from Nepal in Nepali Language","url":"https://nepalpress.com/2026/09/23/766737/el-nino-could-cause-an-additional-451000-deaths","headline":"Another 4 Lakh 51 Thousand People May Die Due to El Nino","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:45:04.698Z"},{"sourceName":"turkiyegazetesi.com.tr","url":"https://turkiyegazetesi.com.tr/dunya/dunyayi-kasip-kavuracak-subat-2027ye-kadar-sure-verdiler-yetkililerden-korkutan-super-1818003","headline":"It Will Sweep Across the World! Authorities Issue a Terrifying El Nino Warning: Until February 2027...","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:41:26.000Z"},{"sourceName":"IBTimes UK","url":"https://ibtimes.co.uk/el-nino-451000-excess-heat-deaths-analysis-1821445","headline":"'450,000 Deaths in Next Six Months': Massive El Niño Threat Prompts Global Humanitarian Red Alert","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:31:40.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Insider Paper","url":"https://insiderpaper.com/godzilla-el-nino-could-cause-451000-deaths-worldwide","headline":"‘Godzilla El Niño’ could cause 451,000 deaths worldwide by February 2027","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:28:43.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Nettavisen","url":"https://nettavisen.no/nyheter/godzilla-el-ni-o-ny-rapport-spar-450-000-dodsfall/s/80-95-100910","headline":"Monster Weather: Estimated 450,000 Dead Within Six Months","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:21:31.000Z"},{"sourceName":"TV9 Marathi","url":"https://tv9marathi.com/international/el-ninos-deadly-prediction-global-heatwave-threatens-4-5-lakh-lives-india-on-alert-1762610.html","headline":"4,51,000 People Will Die in the Next 6 Months? Scientists' Dire Prediction About El Nino; Will India Not Be Spared?","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:19:17.000Z"},{"sourceName":"jurnalul.ro","url":"https://jurnalul.ro/stiri/observator/avertisment-sumbru-super-el-nino-ucide-sute-mii-oameni-sfarsit-iarna-1044935.html","headline":"Dark Warning: Super El Niño Could Kill 239,000 People by the End of Winter","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:15:01.000Z"},{"sourceName":"NewsFinale","url":"https://newsfinale.com/news/scientists-warn-super-el-nino-could-lead-to-451000-deaths","headline":"Scientists Warn Super El Niño Could Lead to 451,000 Deaths","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:14:34.000Z"},{"sourceName":"sigmalive.com","url":"https://sigmalive.com/news/international/1330565/el-ninio-akraies-thermokrasies-ston-eiriniko-provlepseis-ghia-450000-thanatoys","headline":"El Niño: Extreme Temperatures in the Pacific - Predictions for 450,000 Deaths","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:12:30.457Z"},{"sourceName":"ieidiseis.gr","url":"https://ieidiseis.gr/perivallon/872865/foniko-el-ninio-pano-apo-450-000-nekroi-toys-epomenoys-6-mines-poies-perioches-einai-stin-kokkini-zoni","headline":"Deadly El Niño: Over 450,000 Dead in the Next 6 Months – Which Areas Are in the \"Red\" Zone","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T11:03:07.000Z"},{"sourceName":"CTV News","url":"https://ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/article/this-years-el-nino-driven-heat-could-cause-nearly-half-a-million-more-deaths-group-says","headline":"This year's El Nino-driven heat could cause nearly half a million more deaths, group says","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:59:35.457Z"},{"sourceName":"centralasia.media","url":"https://centralasia.media/news:2538612","headline":"El Niño Could Kill 451,000 More People than Usual.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:56:13.000Z"},{"sourceName":"www.cnews.fr","url":"https://cnews.fr/environnement/2026-09-23/le-phenomene-super-el-nino-pourrait-provoquer-la-mort-de-450000-personnes","headline":"The \"Super El Niño\" Phenomenon Could Lead to the Death of 450,000 People in the Next Six Months","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:53:27.766Z"},{"sourceName":"Jyllands-Posten","url":"https://jyllands-posten.dk/international/ECE19670638/prognose-varme-under-el-nio-vil-koste-450000-liv-paa-seks-maaneder","headline":"Forecast: Heat During El Niño Will Cost 450,000 Lives in Six Months","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:50:11.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Sada El balad","url":"https://see.news/report-super-el-nio-could-cause-451000-deaths-worldwide-by-february-2027","headline":"Report: Super El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Deaths Worldwide by February 2027","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:48:20.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/23/powerful-el-nino-could-cause-450000-deaths-scientists-say","headline":"Powerful El Nino could cause more than 450,000 deaths, scientists say","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:44:52.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Unknown","url":"https://imaeil.com/page/view/2026092319395490442","headline":"Super El Niño: 450,000 Global Heatwave Deaths Expected Over 6 Months","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:40:57.000Z"},{"sourceName":"dailymail.com","url":"https://dailymail.com/galleries/article-16154037/Super-El-Ni-o-cause-451-000-deaths-scientists-warn.html","headline":"Super El Niño could cause 451,000 deaths, scientists warn","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:40:56.000Z"},{"sourceName":"SANA","url":"https://sana.sy/miscellaneous/2587638","headline":"Researchers: the Supernatural El Niño Phenomenon Could Cause an Additional 451,000 Deaths.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:32:02.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Dagens Nyheter.","url":"https://dn.se/varlden/ny-rapport-el-nino-kan-leda-till-nara-en-halv-miljon-dodsfall","headline":"New Report: El Niño Could Lead to Nearly Half a Million Deaths","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:26:37.737Z"},{"sourceName":"cedarnews.net","url":"https://cedarnews.net/tieng-viet/1002101/canh-bao-hon-450000-ca-vong-som","headline":"Warning of over 450,000 Premature Deaths Due to El Nino-Induced Heatwave.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:19:37.000Z"},{"sourceName":"CNN Greece","url":"https://cnn.gr/ellada/story/553660/el-ninio-efialtiki-provlepsi-gia-45-000-thanatous-neo-rekor-thermokrasiakis-apoklisis-ston-eiriniko","headline":"El Niño: Nightmarish Prediction for 45,000 Deaths - New Record for Temperature Deviation in the Pacific","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:17:56.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Thanh Niên","url":"https://thanhnien.vn/canh-bao-hon-450000-ca-tu-vong-som-vi-nang-nong-do-el-nino-185260923163327772.htm","headline":"Warning of over 450,000 Premature Deaths Due to El Nino-Induced Heatwave.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:11:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"24 HU","url":"https://24.hu/tudomany/2026/09/23/el-nino-tobblethalalozas-magyarorszag-klimakutatok-adatok","headline":"El Niño: Hungary May Also Have Victims","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:09:56.000Z"},{"sourceName":"unimedia.info","url":"https://unimedia.info/ro/news/0bf5b1101b5a8819/el-nino-ar-putea-provoca-peste-450-000-de-decese-in-urmatoarele-sase-luni-ce-tari-vor-fi-cele-mai-afectate.html","headline":"El Niño Could Cause More than 450,000 Deaths in the Next Six Months.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:07:41.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Metrópoles","url":"https://metropoles.com/brasil/super-el-nino-pode-causar-450-mil-mortes-no-mundo-brasil-esta-no-top-5","headline":"Super El Niño Can Cause 450,000 Deaths in the World; Brazil Is in the Top 5","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:03:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Common Dreams","url":"https://commondreams.org/news/super-el-nino-deaths","headline":"Extreme Heat Caused by 'Super El Niño' Could Kill Over 450,000 People in Coming Months: Report","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:01:02.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Medyascope","url":"https://medyascope.tv/2026/09/23/super-el-nino-icin-carpici-tahmin-alti-ayda-450-binden-fazla-ek-olum-yasanabilir","headline":"Shocking Prediction for Super El Niño: More than 450,000 Additional Deaths Could Occur in Six Months.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T10:00:36.000Z"},{"sourceName":"haberglobal.com","url":"https://haberglobal.com/dunya/godzilla-seviyesinde-super-el-nino-6-ayda-450-bin-kisinin-olumune-neden-olacak-545490","headline":"Godzilla Level! 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