{"publisher":{"name":"MediaBias News","url":"https://mediabias.news","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology","editorialPrinciples":"https://mediabias.news/editorial-principles","corrections":"https://mediabias.news/corrections"},"scoreGuide":{"trust":"How well corroborated and evidenced the source reporting is. 0-100, higher is better.","critic":"Craft quality of the source journalism: context, balance, fact vs comment. 0-100, higher is better.","hype":"How far the source presentation runs ahead of substance. 0-100, LOWER IS BETTER.","scope":"Scores assess the original reporting this article was written from, not the truth of the underlying event and not the quality of this write-up."},"assessmentGuide":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"story":{"id":"https://mediabias.news/climate/el-nino-heatwave-could-cause-451000-deaths-globally","slug":"el-nino-heatwave-could-cause-451000-deaths-globally","url":"https://mediabias.news/climate/el-nino-heatwave-could-cause-451000-deaths-globally","title":"El Niño heatwave could cause 451,000 deaths globally","subtitle":"Climate Impact Lab report projects significant rise in heat-related fatalities between September 2026 and February 2027.","excerpt":"A new report from the Climate Impact Lab estimates that the current El Niño event could lead to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027. India is projected to experience 15,800 of these deaths.","category":"Climate","area":"India","publishedAt":"2026-09-23T12:05:31.356Z","sourceReportedAt":"2026-09-23T11:31:40.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-23T12:05:31.356Z","readTime":"3 min read","scores":{"trust":42,"critic":57,"hype":60,"notes":{"trust":"The central claim is attributed to the Climate Impact Lab and University of Chicago, with specific figures provided.","critic":"The reporting is largely based on digests, with limited original reporting and a lack of direct quotes from affected parties.","hype":"Headlines use sensational language like 'Monster Weather' and 'Deadly El Niño' to describe the projected deaths."}},"tags":["#ClimateChange","#ElNino","#GlobalHealth","#Heatwave","#India"],"entities":["Climate Impact Lab","El Niño","India","Sahel region","Nigeria","Michael Greenstone"],"body":[{"type":"key_takeaways","items":["The Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally from September 2026 to February 2027 due to the current El Niño.","India is estimated to see 15,800 of these deaths, with nearly half occurring between December and February.","The Sahel region in Africa is projected to have the highest toll, with 66,800 additional deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria.","The report suggests that targeted emergency actions could save tens of thousands of lives."]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The current El Niño event is projected to cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab. This estimate is relative to average conditions during the same months from 1996 to 2025. The report, released on Wednesday, 23 September 2026, highlights that the toll is expected to be particularly high in the Global South."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"India could experience approximately 15,800 additional heat-related deaths during this period, with nearly half of these fatalities anticipated between December and February. The report also projects significant death tolls in other regions: 66,800 in Africa's Sahel region, including 31,400 in Nigeria; 19,400 in Southeast Asia (Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia); 19,300 in Indonesia; and 13,300 in Brazil."},{"type":"heading","text":"Disagreement on specific figures"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"While the global figure of 451,000 additional deaths is consistently reported across multiple sources, one outlet, jurnalul.ro, states that 239,000 deaths could occur by the end of February 2027, with the total rising to 451,000 if previous months since June are included. The Climate Impact Lab's statement accompanying the report describes the current El Niño as a 'postcard from our future', bringing temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver in 20 years."},{"type":"heading","text":"What the coverage left out"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"None of the left, centre, or right-rated reports mention the methodological limitations of the Climate Impact Lab's mortality estimate, which were detailed in The Hindu's full report. Specifically, the limitation that the report does not spell out the underlying numerical relationship or coefficients connecting a particular temperature increase to a number of deaths, with full methodological details to appear in a forthcoming peer-reviewed paper, was not mentioned in the digests or the full reports from Hindustan Times and Jyllands-Posten."}],"basedOn":[{"sourceName":"independentpress.cc","url":"https://independentpress.cc/current-el-nino-could-kill-451000-from-heat-study-warns/2026/09/28","headline":"CURRENT EL NIÑO COULD KILL 451,000 FROM HEAT, STUDY WARNS","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-28T12:10:36.000Z"},{"sourceName":"PressHub","url":"https://presshub.ro/stiinta-pentru-viata-cercetatorii-estimeaza-ca-fenomenul-el-nino-ar-putea-provoca-sute-de-mii-de-decese-prin-caldura-419342","headline":"Life Science Researchers Estimate that the El Niño Phenomenon Could Cause Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths by Heat","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-28T10:58:32.000Z"},{"sourceName":"City News","url":"https://toronto.citynews.ca/2026/09/28/can-we-prevent-el-ninos-451000-extra-deaths","headline":"Can we prevent El Niño's 451,000 extra deaths?","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-28T10:47:48.000Z"},{"sourceName":"allAfrica","url":"https://allafrica.com/stories/202609280002.html","headline":"Nigeria Faces the World's Highest Projected Death Toll From Super El Niño Heat - What Could Save Lives","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-28T07:02:53.000Z"},{"sourceName":"TFD","url":"https://thefinancialdistrict.com.ph/post/el-ni%C3%B1o-could-cause-up-to-451-000-additional-heat-related-deaths-researchers-say","headline":"El Niño Could Cause Up to 451,000 Additional Heat-Related Deaths, Researchers Say","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-28T03:49:55.703Z"},{"sourceName":"Struggle - La Lucha","url":"https://struggle-la-lucha.org/2026/09/27/imperialism-turns-el-nino-into-mass-death","headline":"Imperialism turns El Niño into mass death","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-28T02:01:13.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Science-et-vie.com","url":"https://science-et-vie.com/nature-et-environnement/la-vague-de-chaleur-liee-a-el-nino-pourrait-tuer-plus-de-450-000-personnes-dici-fevrier-260293.html","headline":"The Heat Wave Linked to El Niño Could Kill More than 450,000 People by February","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-27T17:00:59.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Novinky.cz","url":"https://novinky.cz/clanek/pocasi-super-el-nino-muze-mit-na-svedomi-temer-pul-milionu-umrti-kvuli-horku-40599645","headline":"Super El Niño May Be Responsible for Nearly Half a Million Heat-Related Deaths","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-27T16:36:40.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Columbian","url":"https://columbian.com/news/2026/sep/27/scientists-el-nino-could-kill-450000-around-globe","headline":"Scientists: El Niño could kill 450,000 around globe","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-27T15:34:25.000Z"},{"sourceName":"nexusnewsfeed.com","url":"https://nexusnewsfeed.com/article/self-sufficiency/nigeria-faces-the-world-s-highest-projected-death-toll-from-super-el-ni-o-heat-what-could-save-lives","headline":"Nigeria faces the world’s highest projected death toll from super El Niño heat: what could save lives","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Polsat News","url":"https://polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2026-09-27/nadciaga-wyjatkowo-silne-el-ni-o-naukowcy-mowia-o-450-tys-zgonow","headline":"An Exceptionally Strong El Niño Is Approaching. Researchers Warn of Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-27T07:44:08.251Z"},{"sourceName":"freshoffthepress.org","url":"https://freshoffthepress.org/super-el-nino-death-toll-forecast-shocks","headline":"Terrifying El Niño Projection Rattles Officials | Fresh Off The Press","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T21:50:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Terra Brasil Notícias","url":"https://terrabrasilnoticias.com/2026/09/super-el-nino-pode-provocar-451-mil-mortes-por-calor-extremo-aponta-estudo","headline":"Super El Niño Can Cause 451 Thousand Deaths From Extreme Heat, Says Study","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T20:47:05.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Daily Telegraph NZ","url":"https://dailytelegraph.co.nz/world/study-projects-451000-heat-deaths-from-super-el-nino","headline":"Study projects 451,000 'heat deaths' from 'Super El Niño'","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T20:27:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Click","url":"https://click.ro/actualitate/el-nino-godzilla-a-ajuns-deja-la-niveluri-2560034.html","headline":"El Niño \"Godzilla Has Already Reached Record Levels. It Could Cause Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths. How Can We Prepare for Such a Weather Phenomenon","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T15:43:24.175Z"},{"sourceName":"abcgazetesi.com.tr","url":"https://abcgazetesi.com.tr/yasam/bilim-insanlari-felaketi-acikladi-subat-ayina-kadar-yuz-binlerce-kisi-olebilir-872478","headline":"Scientists Announce Disaster: Hundreds of Thousands Could Die by February!","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T14:18:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"mediatalkafrica.com","url":"https://mediatalkafrica.com/302978/el-nino-could-become-strongest-on-record-451000-heat-deaths-projected","headline":"El Nino Could Become Strongest On Record, 451000 Heat Deaths Projected","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T08:05:49.000Z"},{"sourceName":"thecooldown.com","url":"https://thecooldown.com/green-tech/el-nino-heat-deaths-global-south","headline":"Global South faces worst toll as El Niño could bring 451,000 extra heat deaths","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T06:35:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"ThePress United | International News Analysis, Viewpoint","url":"https://thepressunited.com/updates/super-el-nino-could-cause-over-450000-deaths-study","headline":"‘Super El Nino’ could cause over 450,000 deaths – study - The Press United","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T05:14:40.000Z"},{"sourceName":"southamericanews.net","url":"https://southamericanews.net/news/279332709/super-el-nino-could-cause-over-450000-deaths-study","headline":"Super El Nino could cause over 450,000 deaths study","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T04:26:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"brazilsun.com","url":"https://brazilsun.com/news/279332709/super-el-nino-could-cause-over-450000-deaths-study","headline":"Super El Nino could cause over 450,000 deaths study","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-26T04:26:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Crypto News & Investigative Reports","url":"https://cnirbc.com/could-the-super-el-nino-claim-451000-lives-new-report-issues-global-warning","headline":"Could the ‘Super El Niño’ Claim 451,000 Lives? 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