{"publisher":{"name":"MediaBias News","url":"https://mediabias.news","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology","editorialPrinciples":"https://mediabias.news/editorial-principles","corrections":"https://mediabias.news/corrections"},"scoreGuide":{"trust":"How well corroborated and evidenced the source reporting is. 0-100, higher is better.","critic":"Craft quality of the source journalism: context, balance, fact vs comment. 0-100, higher is better.","hype":"How far the source presentation runs ahead of substance. 0-100, LOWER IS BETTER.","scope":"Scores assess the original reporting this article was written from, not the truth of the underlying event and not the quality of this write-up."},"assessmentGuide":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"story":{"id":"https://mediabias.news/climate/global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026","slug":"global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026","url":"https://mediabias.news/climate/global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026","title":"Global Carbon Pollution to Fall 0.4% in 2026","subtitle":"Decrease in fossil fuel emissions attributed to Iran war and renewables, but total CO2 rises.","excerpt":"Global carbon pollution from fossil fuels is projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, marking the third drop this century. This decline is largely linked to supply shocks from the Iran war and the growth of renewable energy, though total CO2 emissions are expected to increase.","category":"Climate","area":null,"publishedAt":"2026-11-10T14:25:16.143Z","sourceReportedAt":"2026-11-10T13:45:53.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-11-10T14:25:16.143Z","readTime":"4 min read","scores":{"trust":58,"critic":66,"hype":48,"notes":{"trust":"Central claim attributed to Global Carbon Project, with named scientists and specific figures, but relies on anonymous sourcing for some details.","critic":"Reports include expert commentary and context, but some are digests and lack original reporting depth.","hype":"Headlines and digests mention the Iran war and its impact, creating a sense of urgency and unexpected consequence."}},"tags":["#ClimateChange","#CarbonEmissions","#FossilFuels","#RenewableEnergy","#IranWar","#GlobalWarming"],"entities":["Global Carbon Project","Iran","Glen Peters","Strait of Hormuz"],"body":[{"type":"key_takeaways","items":["Global carbon pollution from fossil fuels is projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, reaching 42.2 billion tons.","The decrease is primarily attributed to oil supply shocks from the Iran war and the expansion of renewable energy sources.","Oil emissions are expected to fall by nearly 2%, while coal emissions are projected to rise by 0.6%.","Total global CO2 emissions, including land use changes, are forecast to increase by 1%."]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Global carbon pollution from burning fossil fuels is projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, according to a study by the Global Carbon Project. This marks the third time in the 21st century that such emissions have fallen, following the 2009 recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The projected decrease amounts to 42.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Scientists attribute this reduction primarily to supply shocks stemming from the Iran war, which has impacted oil prices and availability, and the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources. Oil emissions are expected to fall by nearly 2%, while natural gas emissions are forecast to decrease by 0.3%. Conversely, coal emissions are projected to rise by 0.6%."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"However, total global CO2 emissions, which include those from land use changes such as deforestation and peat fires, are expected to increase by 1%. This rise is due to land use emissions increasing at a faster rate than fossil fuel emissions have decreased."},{"type":"heading","text":"Disagreement on the cause of the decline"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"While the Global Carbon Project study links the fossil fuel emission drop to the Iran war and renewables, some reports suggest a more nuanced view. CTV News quoted study co-author Glen Peters stating the decrease is \"largely driven by the war in Iran, what’s happened in the Strait of Hormuz,\" and that it is \"a little bit of good news, but for the wrong reasons.\" Conversely, some outlets highlight the role of renewable energy growth. The Indian Express digest attributes the decline to \"supply shocks created by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the growing footprint of renewable energy sources.\""},{"type":"heading","text":"What the coverage left out"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"None of the left-rated digests mention the specific figure for total global CO2 emissions, which is projected to increase by 1%. None of the centre-rated digests mention the specific figure for total global CO2 emissions, which is projected to increase by 1%. None of the right-rated digests mention the specific figure for total global CO2 emissions, which is projected to increase by 1%."}],"basedOn":[{"sourceName":"BNR Nieuwsradio","url":"https://bnr.nl/nieuws/duurzaamheid/10615195/iran-oorlog-zorgt-wereldwijd-tijdelijk-voor-minder-uitstoot","headline":"Iran War Temporarily Leads to Lower Emissions Worldwide","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T14:26:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Indian Express","url":"https://indianexpress.com/article/india/co2-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-projected-to-decline-in-2026-study-10957944","headline":"CO2 emissions from fossil fuels projected to decline in 2026: Study","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T13:45:53.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Semafor","url":"https://semafor.com/article/11/10/2026/more-renewables-and-hormuz-disruption-drive-emissions-fall","headline":"More renewables and Hormuz disruption drive emissions fall","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T13:23:57.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Clarin","url":"https://clarin.com/new-york-times-international-weekly/guerra-iran-provoco-inesperadamente-disminucion-emisiones-carbono-ano_0_t5lyfTnSeE.html","headline":"Iran's War Unexpectedly Caused a Decline in Carbon Emissions This Year","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T12:55:58.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Dnevnik","url":"https://dnevnik.si/novice/svet/letos-pricakovan-prvi-padec-izpustov-od-fosilnih-goriv-po-letu-2020-2839654","headline":"First Drop in Fossil Fuel Emissions Expected This Year Since 2020","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T12:35:07.000Z"},{"sourceName":"HuffPost It","url":"https://huffingtonpost.it/economia/2026/11/10/news/il_blocco_di_hormuz-23119083","headline":"Emissions From Fossil Sources Are Falling (Even for the War in Iran). But It Is a False Signal","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T12:01:15.000Z"},{"sourceName":"newsweek.ro","url":"https://newsweek.ro/actualitate/emisiile-de-carbon-provenite-din-combustibili-fosili-ar-urma-sa-scada-pentru-prima-data-dupa-un-nivel-record","headline":"Carbon Emissions From Fossil Fuels Would Fall for the First Time After a Record Level • Newsweek Romania","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T11:35:47.499Z"},{"sourceName":"ElNacional.cat","url":"https://elnacional.cat/ca/internacional/factor-positiu-inesperat-guerra-iran_1723334_102.html","headline":"The 'Positive' and Unexpected Factor of the War with Iran","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T11:26:53.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Phys.org","url":"https://phys.org/news/2026-11-fossil-emissions-decrease-energy-growth.html","headline":"Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026—driven by expansion of solar and wind power, electric vehicles, and the Iran conflict. Emissions from oil projected to decrease by 1.9%. Countries everywhere are decreasing emissions while growing their economies.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T11:00:18.000Z"},{"sourceName":"berria.eus","url":"https://berria.eus/mundua/erregai-fosilekin-lotutako-co2-isuriak-04-gutxituko-dira-pandemiaz-geroztik-lehen-aldiz_2166330_102.html","headline":"CO2 Emissions Related to Fossil Fuels Will Decrease for the First Time Since the Pandemic, by 0.4%","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:55:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Document","url":"https://document.no/2026/11/10/menneskehetens-co2-utslipp-forventes-a-oke-ogsa-i-2026","headline":"Humanity's CO2 Emissions Are Expected to Increase in 2026 as Well","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:47:27.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Mediafax","url":"https://mediafax.ro/economic/emisiile-globale-de-carbon-provenite-din-combustibili-fosili-ar-urma-sa-scada-pentru-prima-data-dupa-un-nivel-record-ce-rol-au-preturile-energiei-si-razboiul-din-iran-23840750","headline":"Global Carbon Emissions From Fossil Fuels Would Fall for the First Time After a Record Level. What Role Does Iran's Energy Prices and War Play","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:35:49.187Z"},{"sourceName":"bworldonline.com","url":"https://bworldonline.com/world/2026/11/10/792784/scientists-expect-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-to-ease-this-year","headline":"Scientists expect global fossil fuel emissions to ease this year - BusinessWorld Online","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:32:38.000Z"},{"sourceName":"nordisch.info","url":"https://nordisch.info/natur-forschung/der-krieg-senkt-den-co%e2%82%82-ausstoss-dem-klima-hilft-das-nicht","headline":"World Climate Conference: War Cuts CO2 Emissions – It Doesn't Help the Climate","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:26:52.000Z"},{"sourceName":"geo","url":"https://geo.de/natur/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen---trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel-38525028.html","headline":"Climate Crisis: Global CO2 Emissions Rise – Despite a Decline in Fossil Fuels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:24:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"EuropaWire.eu","url":"https://news.europawire.eu/uea-scientists-project-fall-in-fossil-co%e2%82%82-emissions-in-2026-as-total-carbon-emissions-rise/eu-press-release/2026/11/10/11/10/05/186889","headline":"UEA Scientists Project Fall in Fossil CO₂ Emissions in 2026 as Total Carbon Emissions Rise","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:20:14.714Z"},{"sourceName":"Taipei Times","url":"https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/11/10/2003867502","headline":"Local experts discuss implications of shrinking global carbon budget","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:09:04.763Z"},{"sourceName":"Eesti Rahvusringhääling","url":"https://novaator.err.ee/1610191426/usa-iraani-soda-lukkas-maailma-susinikuheite-ule-pika-aja-langusesse","headline":"The US-Iran War Pushed Global Carbon Emissions Into a Long-Term Decline","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:06:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"in.gr","url":"https://in.gr/2026/11/10/in-science/perivallon-b-science/ston-polemo-tou-iran-nikitis-einai-mono-to-klima-oi-ekpompes-anthraka-meiothikan-to-2026","headline":"In the Iran War, Only the Climate Is the Winner - Carbon Emissions Dropped in 2026","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:05:48.000Z"},{"sourceName":"24 HU","url":"https://24.hu/tech/2026/11/10/irani-haboru-covid-szendioxid-kibocsatas-globalis-csokkenes","headline":"Something Unprecedented Has Happened Since Covid","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:03:23.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Modern Ghana","url":"https://modernghana.com/news/1543275/fossil-fuel-emissions-set-to-fall-for-first-time.html","headline":"Fossil fuel emissions set to fall for first time since Covid, research shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T10:00:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Observador","url":"https://observador.pt/2026/11/10/energias-renovaveis-e-guerra-no-irao-impulsionam-queda-das-emissoes-de-carbono","headline":"Renewable Energies and War in Iran Drive Down Carbon Emissions","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-11-10T09:48:58.000Z"},{"sourceName":"estrepublicain.fr","url":"https://estrepublicain.fr/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026","headline":"Climate. 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The Indian Express stated the decline was due to \"supply shocks created by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the growing footprint of renewable energy sources.\" Semafor noted that \"A reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,\" quoting Professor Pierre Friedlingstein. HuffPost Italy's headline read, \"Emissions From Fossil Sources Are Falling (Even for the War in Iran). But It Is a False Signal,\" and its digest mentioned the fall is \"insufficient and not structural braking.\" In.gr's headline declared, \"In the Iran War, Only the Climate Is the Winner - Carbon Emissions Dropped in 2026.\" SANA's digest stated the reduction was \"Due to the Impact of the War on Oil Prices.\" Franceinfo.fr's headline noted \"encouraging signs\" but also pointed to \"the effects of deforestation, which is still massive.\" Sydney Morning Herald reported \"Greenhouse pollution down but global warming surges as climate talks begin,\" linking the fall to \"the war in Iran and new renewables.\""],"centre":["Centre-rated reports focused on the combination of factors leading to the emissions decrease, often noting the war's impact. 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Clarin's headline was \"Iran's War Unexpectedly Caused a Decline in Carbon Emissions This Year,\" and its digest warned \"this decline could be ephemeral.\" Observador's headline read, \"Renewable Energies and War in Iran Drive Down Carbon Emissions,\" with its digest noting that \"pulled down\" by \"geopolitical crises is not\" a solution. Anadolu Ajansı's headline stated, \"Iran War Disruption Expected to Curb Global Fossil Fuel Emissions, Scientists Say,\" and its digest noted \"Oil-related emissions forecast to fall 1.9%, while coal emissions are expected to rise.\" Dagens Nyheter reported, \"Renewable Energy and the Iran War Are Causing Emissions to Decrease,\" but quoted \"This is not enough to put global emissions on a downward trend.\" N-tv's headline was \"Despite Decline in Oil: Global CO2 Emissions Continue to Rise,\" and its digest stated \"there is no reason for researchers to cheer.\" The National Herald's headline mirrored CTV News', \"Heat-Trapping Carbon Pollution Drops, but Scientists Cite the Iran War Rather than Energy 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