{"publisher":{"name":"MediaBias News","url":"https://mediabias.news","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology","editorialPrinciples":"https://mediabias.news/editorial-principles","corrections":"https://mediabias.news/corrections"},"scoreGuide":{"trust":"How well corroborated and evidenced the source reporting is. 0-100, higher is better.","critic":"Craft quality of the source journalism: context, balance, fact vs comment. 0-100, higher is better.","hype":"How far the source presentation runs ahead of substance. 0-100, LOWER IS BETTER.","scope":"Scores assess the original reporting this article was written from, not the truth of the underlying event and not the quality of this write-up."},"assessmentGuide":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"story":{"id":"https://mediabias.news/politics/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election","slug":"lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election","url":"https://mediabias.news/politics/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election","title":"Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October Election","subtitle":"A Quaest survey shows the gap narrowing between the incumbent president and his right-wing challenger, with both facing high rejection rates.","excerpt":"Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a three-point lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff, according to a Quaest poll released on 14 August. The margin falls within the survey’s two-point error range, making the race a statistical tie. Both candidates face rejection rates above 50%.","category":"Politics","area":"Latin America","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T21:25:33.737Z","sourceReportedAt":"2026-08-15T19:42:03.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-15T21:25:33.737Z","readTime":"5 min read","scores":{"trust":74,"critic":95,"hype":15,"notes":{"trust":"Trust 74: poll data cited, figures sourced to Quaest, multiple independent reports, specific dates and margin of error given.","critic":"Critic 95: explains poll significance, includes Lula quote, separates facts, provides specific figures and next steps clearly.","hype":"Hype 15: language measured, no clickbait, headlines match article content."}},"tags":["#BrazilElection","#LulaDaSilva","#FlavioBolsonaro","#QuaestPoll","#LatinAmericaPolitics","#PresidentialRace"],"entities":["Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","Flavio Bolsonaro","Jair Bolsonaro","Quaest","Brazil","Globo"],"body":[{"type":"key_takeaways","items":["A Quaest poll released on 14 August shows Lula leading Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated runoff, within the two-point margin of error.","The gap has narrowed from a five-point lead for Lula in an earlier poll on 5 August.","Bolsonaro’s rejection rate stands at 54%, two points higher than Lula’s 52%.","The first round of Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for 4 October."]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by three percentage points in a simulated runoff for the October presidential election, according to a Quaest poll released on 14 August. The survey, conducted between 10 and 13 August, shows Lula at 43% and Bolsonaro at 40%, a result the pollster describes as a statistical tie given its two-point margin of error."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The gap has narrowed since an earlier Quaest poll on 5 August, which had Lula at 44% and Bolsonaro at 39%. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38%, while Bolsonaro polls at 31%. Three other candidates trail far behind: Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado at 4% each, and Romeu Zema at 2%."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is running as the right-wing candidate after his father was barred from the race. The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible by Brazil’s top electoral court for abusing his power while in office and was later convicted over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The poll also measured rejection rates: 54% of voters said they would not vote for Bolsonaro, while 52% said the same of Lula. The survey sampled 2,004 voters and was commissioned by the Brazilian media group Globo."},{"type":"heading","text":"What the coverage left out"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"None of the right-rated digests mention the rejection rates for either candidate. None of the centre-rated digests report the first-round polling figures or the rejection rates. The left-rated reports are the only ones to carry Lula’s remarks about foreign interference in Brazil’s elections."}],"basedOn":[{"sourceName":"resumenlatinoamericano.org","url":"https://resumenlatinoamericano.org/2026/08/15/brasil-lula-encabeza-preferencia-electoral-y-supera-a-flavio-bolsonaro","headline":"Brazil. Lula Leads Electoral Preference and Surpasses Flávio Bolsonaro - Latin American Summary","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T20:08:20.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Clarin","url":"https://clarin.com/mundo/campana-electoral-arranca-brasil-empate-tecnico-lula-da-silva-flavio-bolsonaro_0_bWFzGjxwrT.html","headline":"The Electoral Campaign Starts in Brazil with a Technical Tie Between Lula Da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T19:42:03.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Investing.com","url":"https://investing.com/news/world-news/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows-4861560","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T14:47:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"noticiaslatam.lat","url":"https://noticiaslatam.lat/20260815/lula-derrotaria-a-flavio-bolsonaro-en-las-presidenciales-de-brasil-segun-un-sondeo-1174684488.html","headline":"Lula Would Defeat Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s Presidential Elections, According to a Poll","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T10:25:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Revista Oeste","url":"https://revistaoeste.com/politica/quaest-volta-a-mostrar-empate-tecnico-entre-lula-e-flavio-no-2o-turno","headline":"Quaest Returns to Show Technical Tie Between Lula and Flavio in the Second Round","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T09:34:52.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Yeni Şafak","url":"https://en.yenisafak.com/world/lula-holds-slim-lead-over-bolsonaro-in-brazil-poll-3721934","headline":"Lula holds slim lead over Bolsonaro in Brazil poll","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T08:06:41.000Z"},{"sourceName":"anews.com.tr","url":"https://anews.com.tr/asia/2026/08/15/lula-holds-narrow-lead-over-flavio-bolsonaro-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll","headline":"Lula holds narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election: Poll","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T07:17:34.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Anadolu Ajansı","url":"https://aa.com.tr/en/americas/lula-holds-narrow-lead-over-flavio-bolsonaro-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll/4027951","headline":"Lula holds narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election: Poll","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T06:47:25.180Z"},{"sourceName":"The Star Kuala Lumpur","url":"https://thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/08/15/lula039s-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T05:38:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Devdiscourse","url":"https://devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3964148-lula-maintains-lead-as-brazilian-election-approaches","headline":"Lula Maintains Lead as Brazilian Election Approaches","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T02:41:47.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Merco Press","url":"https://en.mercopress.com/2026/08/15/rejection-of-flavio-bolsonaro-exceeds-lula-s-despite-his-gains-in-voting-intention","headline":"Rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro exceeds Lula's despite his gains in voting intention","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T00:49:09.390Z"},{"sourceName":"Al Jazeera","url":"https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/lula-holds-slim-lead-over-flavio-bolsonaro-ahead-of-brazil-election","headline":"Lula holds slim lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T00:32:56.000Z"},{"sourceName":"N Digital","url":"https://n.com.do/2026/08/14/bolsonaro-se-acerca-a-lula-en-intencion-de-voto-para-una-eventual-segunda-vuelta","headline":"Bolsonaro Approaches Lula in Intent to Vote for a Possible Second Round","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T23:29:05.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Metrópoles","url":"https://metropoles.com/colunas/igor-gadelha/petistas-atribuem-mas-noticias-da-quaest-a-jaques-lulinha-e-marcola","headline":"Petists Attribute Bad News From Quaest to Jaques, Lulina and Marcola","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T22:59:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"RPP","url":"https://rpp.pe/mundo/latinoamerica/brasil-flavio-bolsonaro-vuelve-a-recortar-distancia-con-lula-da-silva-en-eventual-segunda-vuelta-segun-sondeo-noticia-1701651","headline":"Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro Again Cut Distance with Lula Da Silva in Eventual Second Round, According to Poll","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T22:41:06.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Reuters","url":"https://reuters.com/world/americas/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-brazil-election-poll-shows-2026-08-14","headline":"Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows ...","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T22:12:37.096Z"},{"sourceName":"WTVB","url":"https://wtvbam.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T22:06:26.999Z"},{"sourceName":"Bloomberg","url":"https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/lula-s-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-in-brazil-election-poll","headline":"Lula’s Lead Over Bolsonaro Narrows in Brazil Election Poll","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T21:34:31.992Z"},{"sourceName":"The Straits Times","url":"https://straitstimes.com/world/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T21:30:31.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Print","url":"https://theprint.in/world/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows/3015470","headline":"Just a moment…","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T21:30:03.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Globo","url":"https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/pesquisa-eleitoral/noticia/2026/08/14/quaest-presidente-2o-turno-14-agosto.ghtml","headline":"Quaest, Second Round: Lula, 43%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 40%","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T21:08:16.999Z"},{"sourceName":"SRN News","url":"https://srnnews.com/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T20:26:41.000Z"},{"sourceName":"CNN Brasil","url":"https://cnnbrasil.com.br/eleicoes/quaest-54-rejeitam-voto-em-flavio-52-em-lula-2","headline":"Quaest: 54% Reject Vote in Flavius; 52% in Lula","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T18:34:29.000Z"},{"sourceName":"La República","url":"https://larepublica.co/globoeconomia/los-mercados-brasilenos-experimentan-una-dura-semana-debido-a-la-inquietud-electoral-4459210","headline":"Brazilian Markets Experience a Tough Week Due to Electoral Unrest","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T18:12:13.000Z"},{"sourceName":"CartaCapital","url":"https://cartacapital.com.br/politica/quaest-indica-empate-tecnico-entre-lula-e-flavio-bolsonaro-no-2o-turno","headline":"Quaest Indicates Technical Tie Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the Second Round","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T18:07:05.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Mighty 790 KFGO","url":"https://kfgo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"WKZO","url":"https://wkzo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"WTAQ","url":"https://wtaq.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"KELO Newstalk 1320 107.9","url":"https://kelo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z"}],"analysis":{"distribution":{"percent":{"left":16,"centre":31,"right":53},"count":{"left":3,"centre":6,"right":10},"totalSources":29,"untracked":10,"rated":19,"observedAt":"2026-08-15T22:30:13.461065+00:00"},"lifecycle":{"state":"developing","lastCheckedAt":"2026-08-15T23:30:07.512Z","closedAt":null,"checks":9,"changes":0,"reopened":false},"framing":{"left":["The left-rated reports led on Lula’s narrow lead and the high rejection rates for both candidates. Al Jazeera’s full report described the race as a \"statistical tie\" and noted that Bolsonaro’s rejection rate exceeds Lula’s. It also quoted Lula’s remarks at his re-election launch, where he warned against foreign interference in Brazil’s mineral wealth and elections, singling out the US, China and France.","MercoPress’s digest highlighted the rejection rates, reporting that Bolsonaro’s 54% rejection rate is two points higher than Lula’s. CartaCapital’s digest noted the technical tie in the second-round scenario and specified the poll’s sample size and margin of error."],"centre":["The centre-rated digests focused on the narrowing gap between the two candidates. Devdiscourse’s full report described the race as \"tightening\" and noted the slight decrease in Lula’s lead from the earlier poll. It did not mention the rejection rates or the first-round scenario.","Investing.com, Bloomberg, WTVB, The Mighty 790 KFGO and other centre-rated digests all led with the narrowing lead, using phrasing such as \"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows\". None of the centre-rated digests mentioned the candidates’ rejection rates or the first-round polling figures."],"right":["The right-rated digests uniformly described the race as a \"technical tie\" or \"statistical tie\". Anadolu Ajansı, Globo, The Star Kuala Lumpur, The Straits Times and eight other right-rated digests all led with Bolsonaro’s gains, using phrases like \"narrow lead\" or \"technical tie\".","Clarín’s digest described the race as starting \"with a technical tie\", while Globo’s digest explicitly stated that the candidates are \"technically tied within the margin of error\". None of the right-rated digests mentioned the candidates’ rejection rates or the first-round polling figures."],"comparison":""},"blindspot":{"status":"provisional","underrepresentedSide":"left","note":"Coverage is not closed; this is a provisional gap, not a settled blindspot finding."},"sourceFactualityDistribution":{"mixed":5,"high":11,"unknown":11,"veryHigh":2},"ownershipDistribution":{"privateEquity":1,"mediaConglomerate":8,"billionaire":2,"government":2,"independent":2,"other":1,"corporation":2},"firstDatedReport":{"sourceName":"The Mighty 790 KFGO","url":"https://kfgo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z"},"countries":[{"country":"São Paulo, State of São Paulo, Brazil","count":2},{"country":"Bogota, Colombia","count":1},{"country":"Arlington, Arlington County, Virginia, United States","count":1},{"country":"Rio de Janeiro, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil","count":1},{"country":"New Delhi, Delhi, India, India","count":1},{"country":"Singapore, Singapore","count":1},{"country":"New York, New York, United States","count":1},{"country":"London, Greater London, England, United Kingdom","count":1},{"country":"Lima, Lima Province, Metropolitan Municipality of Lima, Peru","count":1},{"country":"Doha, Qatar","count":1},{"country":"Caracas, Libertador, Capital District, Venezuela","count":1},{"country":"India","count":1},{"country":"Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia","count":1},{"country":"Ankara, Turkey","count":1},{"country":"Buenos Aires, Argentina, Argentina","count":1}],"outlets":[{"name":"The Mighty 790 KFGO","url":"https://kfgo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z","leaningSide":"centre","leaningRating":"center","factualityRating":"high","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":null,"repostedFrom":null},{"name":"WKZO","url":"https://wkzo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z","leaningSide":"right","leaningRating":"leanRight","factualityRating":"high","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":null,"repostedFrom":null},{"name":"WTAQ","url":"https://wtaq.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z","leaningSide":"right","leaningRating":"right","factualityRating":"mixed","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":null,"repostedFrom":null},{"name":"KELO Newstalk 1320 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República","url":"https://larepublica.co/globoeconomia/los-mercados-brasilenos-experimentan-una-dura-semana-debido-a-la-inquietud-electoral-4459210","headline":"Brazilian Markets Experience a Tough Week Due to Electoral Unrest","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T18:12:13.000Z","leaningSide":null,"leaningRating":"unknown","factualityRating":"unknown","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"Bogota, Colombia","repostedFrom":null},{"name":"CNN Brasil","url":"https://cnnbrasil.com.br/eleicoes/quaest-54-rejeitam-voto-em-flavio-52-em-lula-2","headline":"Quaest: 54% Reject Vote in Flavius; 52% in Lula","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T18:34:29.000Z","leaningSide":null,"leaningRating":"unknown","factualityRating":"unknown","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"São Paulo, State of São Paulo, Brazil","repostedFrom":null},{"name":"SRN News","url":"https://srnnews.com/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil 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Poll","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T21:34:31.992Z","leaningSide":"centre","leaningRating":"center","factualityRating":"veryHigh","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"New York, New York, United States","repostedFrom":null},{"name":"WTVB","url":"https://wtvbam.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows","headline":"Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T22:06:26.999Z","leaningSide":"centre","leaningRating":"center","factualityRating":"high","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":null,"repostedFrom":null},{"name":"Reuters","url":"https://reuters.com/world/americas/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-brazil-election-poll-shows-2026-08-14","headline":"Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows 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