{"publisher":{"name":"MediaBias News","url":"https://mediabias.news","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology","editorialPrinciples":"https://mediabias.news/editorial-principles","corrections":"https://mediabias.news/corrections"},"scoreGuide":{"trust":"How well corroborated and evidenced the source reporting is. 0-100, higher is better.","critic":"Craft quality of the source journalism: context, balance, fact vs comment. 0-100, higher is better.","hype":"How far the source presentation runs ahead of substance. 0-100, LOWER IS BETTER.","scope":"Scores assess the original reporting this article was written from, not the truth of the underlying event and not the quality of this write-up."},"assessmentGuide":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"story":{"id":"https://mediabias.news/business/middle-east-oil-exports-near-pre-war-levels-reports-show","slug":"middle-east-oil-exports-near-pre-war-levels-reports-show","url":"https://mediabias.news/business/middle-east-oil-exports-near-pre-war-levels-reports-show","title":"Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show","subtitle":"JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs offer differing estimates on Gulf oil flows amid ongoing conflict.","excerpt":"Middle East crude oil exports have largely recovered to pre-war levels, according to analyses by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. While JP Morgan estimates exports at 98% of pre-war volumes, Goldman Sachs presents a higher figure, highlighting a divergence in market assessments.","category":"Business & Economy","area":"Middle East","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T08:45:46.402Z","sourceReportedAt":"2026-09-30T07:23:53.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T09:30:29.664Z","readTime":"4 min read","scores":{"trust":50,"critic":45,"hype":20,"notes":{"trust":"JP Morgan figures are cited by multiple outlets, but Kpler figures are only in one source.","critic":"The reporting is based on aggregated data and analyst reports, with limited original reporting.","hype":"Headlines focus on the recovery of oil flows, with minimal emphasis on the risks involved."}},"tags":["#MiddleEastOil","#OilExports","#StraitOfHormuz","#JP Morgan","#GoldmanSachs","#EnergySecurity"],"entities":["JP Morgan","Goldman Sachs","Kpler","Strait of Hormuz","Iran","United States"],"body":[{"type":"key_takeaways","items":["Middle East crude oil exports are estimated to be at 98% of pre-war levels, according to JP Morgan.","Goldman Sachs estimates oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels per day.","Refined petroleum product exports from the Middle East are at 58% of pre-war levels, JP Morgan reports.","US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to their lowest point since 1982."]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Crude oil exports from the Middle East have nearly returned to pre-war levels, with JP Morgan estimating daily shipments at 17.5 million barrels, representing 98% of pre-war volumes. This recovery is occurring despite ongoing risks to shipping in the region. JP Morgan also reported that refined petroleum product exports from the Middle East stand at 58% of pre-war levels."},{"type":"heading","text":"Divergent Estimates on Oil Flows"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Estimates for oil flows from the region vary between major financial institutions. While JP Morgan's analysis places Middle East crude oil exports at 17.5 million barrels per day, Goldman Sachs estimates oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels per day. Kpler reported that oil and product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million barrels per day, which is 77% of pre-war levels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds fewer than 284 million barrels, the lowest quantity since 1982."},{"type":"heading","text":"What the coverage left out"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"None of the centre or right-rated reports mentioned the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks falling below 284 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. This detail was present in the full report from the right-rated outlet Yonhap News Agency."}],"basedOn":[{"sourceName":"BizNews.com","url":"https://biznews.com/global-investing/has-iran-lost-grip-middle-east-oil-exports","headline":"The Economist: Has Iran lost its grip on Middle East oil exports?","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T09:58:49.000Z"},{"sourceName":"vz.ru","url":"https://vz.ru/news/2026/9/30/1456948.html","headline":"Oil Supplies From the Middle East Have Returned to 98% of Pre-Escalation Levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T09:45:21.000Z"},{"sourceName":"newsweek.ro","url":"https://newsweek.ro/international/se-termina-criza-combustibililor-tot-mai-multe-petroliere-in-stramtoarea-hormuz","headline":"Is the Fuel Crisis over? More and More Oil Tankers in the Ormuz Strait • Newsweek Romania","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T08:53:02.427Z"},{"sourceName":"European Business Magazine","url":"https://europeanbusinessmagazine.com/oil-relief-boosts-markets","headline":"Oil Relief Boosts Markets, But Britain's Energy Woes Persist","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T08:15:37.000Z"},{"sourceName":"TradeWinds | Latest shipping and maritime news","url":"https://tradewindsnews.com/tankers/iran-losing-its-grip-on-strait-of-hormuz-transits-as-tanker-exports-rise/2-1-2051453","headline":"Iran losing its grip on Strait of Hormuz transits as tanker exports rise","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T07:30:18.000Z"},{"sourceName":"TokenPost","url":"https://tokenpost.com/news/investing/25669","headline":"Middle East Oil Flows Near Prewar Levels as Estimates Diverge","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T07:23:53.000Z"},{"sourceName":"연합뉴스-Yonhap News Agency","url":"https://yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260930152900009","headline":"Has Iran Lost Leverage?... \"Middle East Crude Oil Exports at 98% of Pre-War Levels\"","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T07:21:23.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Egypt Independent","url":"https://egyptindependent.com/iran-has-lost-considerable-leverage-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-it-cant-go-on-like-this-forever","headline":"Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T07:16:53.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Capital.gr","url":"https://capital.gr/diethni/4020461/cnn-to-iran-xanei-ton-elegxo-sta-stena-tou-ormouz","headline":"CNN: Iran Is Losing Control of the Strait of Hormuz","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T06:59:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"banker.bg","url":"https://banker.bg/2026/09/30/jpmorgan-potoczite-petrol-blizkiya-iztok","headline":"JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs: Middle East Oil Flows Approach Pre-War Levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T06:58:50.000Z"},{"sourceName":"finanzmarktwelt.de","url":"https://finanzmarktwelt.de/nahost-oelexporte-erreichen-98-warum-entwarnung-verfrueht-ist-404360","headline":"Middle East Oil Exports Reach 98% – Why Warning Is Premature","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T06:42:31.000Z"},{"sourceName":"ekonomim.com","url":"https://ekonomim.com/kuresel-ekonomi/korfezden-petrol-akisi-savas-oncesi-seviyelere-yaklasti-haberi-921571","headline":"Oil Flow From the Gulf Has Approached Pre-War Levels.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T06:30:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"nafeza2world.com","url":"https://nafeza2world.com/Akhbar-Al-Alm/2795727","headline":"The Window of the Dark Cross... How Did Iran Lose Its Influence on the Strait of Hormuz?","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T06:00:45.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Bloomberg","url":"https://bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-09-30/jpmorgan-goldman-mideast-oil-flows-near-pre-war-levels-video","headline":"Watch JPMorgan, Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T05:53:15.411Z"},{"sourceName":"asiae.co.kr","url":"https://asiae.co.kr/article/2026093014101230434","headline":"JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs: \"Middle East Oil Shipments Near Pre-War Levels\"","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T05:34:07.000Z"},{"sourceName":"dunya.com","url":"https://dunya.com/enerji/savas-surerken-petrolde-sasirtan-gelisme-neredeyse-tamamen-geri-dondu-haberi-841979","headline":"Surprising Development in Oil Amidst the War: Almost Completely Back - Dünya Newspaper","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T05:15:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"arvopaperi.fi","url":"https://arvopaperi.fi/uutiset/a/3e77c49c-4f35-406b-afbd-26201aac3de9","headline":"Open AI's Dirty Goal Sent Softbank Flying – Oil Flows Returning to Pre-War Levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T05:00:44.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Tärkeimmät talousuutiset | Kauppalehti…","url":"https://kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/a/3cf8e8d9-1424-4d25-ba1d-fb1cb2e1b209","headline":"MARKETS: Open AI's Outrageous Goal Put Softbank Flying -- Oil Flows Returning to Pre-War Levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T05:00:09.000Z"},{"sourceName":"RealClearMarkets","url":"https://realclearmarkets.com/2026/09/30/trump_is_proving_that_iran_cant_control_global_oil_supply_1208934.html","headline":"Trump Is Proving That Iran Can't Control Global Oil Supply","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T05:00:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Business Times","url":"https://businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/jpmorgan-and-goldman-see-middle-east-oil-flows-near-pre-war-levels","headline":"JPMorgan and Goldman see Middle East oil flows near pre-war levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T04:48:04.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Dagens industri","url":"https://di.se/live/jp-morgan-mellanosterns-oljeexport-flodar-igen","headline":"JP Morgan: “Middle East Oil Exports Are Flowing Again”","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T04:26:25.397Z"},{"sourceName":"Lahore Mirror","url":"https://lahoremirror.com/hormuz-oil-flows-rebound-but-market-still-faces-supply-risks","headline":"Hormuz oil flows rebound, but market still faces supply risks","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T03:09:56.000Z"},{"sourceName":"focus-news.net","url":"https://focus-news.net/novini/mejdunarodni/CNN-Iran-zagubi-znachitelnoto-si-predimstvo-v-Ormuzkiya-protok-no-tova-ne-mozhe-da-produlzhava-dulgo-3032410","headline":"CNN: Iran Has Lost Its Significant Advantage in the Strait of Hormuz, but This Cannot Last Long","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T02:37:21.000Z"},{"sourceName":"CNBC-TV18","url":"https://cnbctv18.com/market/commodities/west-asia-crude-oil-flows-hit-98-of-pre-war-level-despite-escalation-jpmorgan-says-20001550.htm","headline":"West Asia crude oil flows hit 98% of pre-war level despite escalation, JPMorgan says","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T02:19:25.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Oil Price","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/JP-Morgan-Goldman-Diverge-on-Hormuz-Oil-Flow-Estimates.html","headline":"JP Morgan, Goldman Diverge on Hormuz Oil Flow Estimates","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T02:00:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Bloomberg","url":"https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-30/mideast-crude-oil-flows-hit-98-of-pre-war-level-jpmorgan-says","headline":"Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T01:48:30.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Moneycontrol","url":"https://moneycontrol.com/news/business/mideast-crude-oil-flows-hit-98-of-pre-war-level-jpmorgan-says-14041480.html","headline":"Mideast crude oil flows hit 98% of pre-war level, JPMorgan says","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T01:44:43.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Live Mint","url":"https://livemint.com/market/mideast-crude-oil-flows-hit-98-of-pre-war-level-jpmorgan-says-11790732517376.html","headline":"Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T01:41:56.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Phil's Stock World","url":"https://philstockworld.com/2026/09/29/iran-has-lost-considerable-leverage-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-it-cant-go-on-like-this-forever","headline":"Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-30T01:12:30.000Z"},{"sourceName":"TrendingPolitics","url":"https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/middle-east-exports-rebound-as-irans-chokehold-on-strait-of-hormuz-falters-cmc","headline":"Middle East Exports Rebound As Iran's Chokehold On Strait Of Hormuz Falters","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T23:52:34.000Z"},{"sourceName":"News Addicts","url":"https://newsaddicts.com/surge-in-middle-east-oil-exports-amid-decline-of-irans-influence","headline":"Surge in Middle East Oil Exports Amid Decline of Iran's Influence","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T23:52:34.000Z"},{"sourceName":"ГОЛОВНА","url":"https://glavcom.ua/world/world-politics/cnn-iran-vtrativ-znachni-vazheli-vplivu-v-ormuzkij-prototsi-1146081.html","headline":"CNN: Iran Has Lost Significant Leverage in the Strait of Hormuz","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T22:58:00.000Z"},{"sourceName":"TokenPost","url":"https://tokenpost.com/news/regulation/25533","headline":"Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Leverage Could Raise Conflict Risk","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T22:43:12.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Cryptocurrency News | Cryptocurrency Prices | Market Cap","url":"https://cryptocurrency.com.tr/irans-leverage-in-strait-of-hormuz-declines-raising-conflict-risk-wsj-395165","headline":"Iran’s leverage in Strait of Hormuz declines, raising conflict risk: WSJ","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T22:39:07.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Crypto Briefing","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/irans-leverage-in-strait-of-hormuz-declines-raising-conflict-risk-wsj","headline":"Iran's leverage in Strait of Hormuz declines, raising conflict risk: WSJ","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T22:39:07.000Z"},{"sourceName":"New York Post","url":"https://nypost.com/2026/09/29/opinion/trump-is-proving-that-iran-cant-control-the-global-oil-supply","headline":"Trump is proving that Iran CAN’T control the global oil supply — a win for the world","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T22:14:36.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Blaze","url":"https://theblaze.com/news/oil-strait-hormuz-iran-exports","headline":"Iran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz continues to erode — and crude oil exports are rebounding","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T21:35:48.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Conservative Review","url":"https://conservativereview.com/iran-s-stranglehold-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-continues-to-erode-and-crude-oil-exports-are-rebounding-2677961732.html","headline":"Iran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz continues to erode — and crude oil exports are rebounding","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T21:35:48.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Economist","url":"https://economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/09/29/has-iran-lost-its-grip-on-gulf-oil-exports","headline":"Has Iran lost its grip on Gulf oil exports?","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T21:25:19.566Z"},{"sourceName":"Washington Times","url":"https://washingtontimes.com/news/2026/sep/29/hormuz-traffic-nears-prewar-levels-iran-war-simmers","headline":"Hormuz traffic nears prewar levels as Iran war simmers","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T20:10:58.608Z"},{"sourceName":"Telegrafi","url":"https://telegrafi.com/nafta-po-kalon-serish-permes-hormuzit-trafiku-eshte-rikthyer-ne-70-per-qind-te-nivelit-para-luftes","headline":"Oil Is Passing Through Hormuz Again, Traffic Has Returned to 70 Percent of Pre-War Levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T20:08:37.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Zambian Observer","url":"https://zambianobserver.com/oil-flows-through-hormuz-alternative-routes-near-80-of-pre-war-levels","headline":"Oil flows through Hormuz, alternative routes near 80% of pre-war levels","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T18:56:26.000Z"},{"sourceName":"ΑΘΗΝΑ 9,84","url":"https://athina984.gr/2026/09/29/cnn-to-iran-chanei-ton-elegcho-sta-stena-toy-ormoyz-giati-i-simerini-isorropia-den-mporei-na-diarkesei","headline":"CNN: Iran Is Losing Control of the Strait of Hormuz – Why the Current Balance Cannot Last","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T18:43:12.000Z"},{"sourceName":"KIFI","url":"https://localnews8.com/cnn-spanish/2026/09/29/iran-ha-perdido-una-influencia-considerable-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-esto-no-puede-continuar-asi-para-siempre","headline":"Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T17:56:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"KRDO","url":"https://krdo.com/news/2026/09/29/iran-ha-perdido-una-influencia-considerable-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-esto-no-puede-continuar-asi-para-siempre","headline":"Irán ha perdido una influencia considerable en el estrecho de Ormuz. Esto no puede continuar así para siempre","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T17:56:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"KVIA","url":"https://kvia.com/news/noticias/cnn-spanish/2026/09/29/iran-ha-perdido-una-influencia-considerable-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-esto-no-puede-continuar-asi-para-siempre","headline":"Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T17:56:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"KEYT","url":"https://keyt.com/latino/cnn-spanish/2026/09/29/iran-ha-perdido-una-influencia-considerable-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-esto-no-puede-continuar-asi-para-siempre","headline":"Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T17:56:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"KMIZ","url":"https://abc17news.com/cnn-spanish/2026/09/29/iran-ha-perdido-una-influencia-considerable-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-esto-no-puede-continuar-asi-para-siempre","headline":"Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T17:56:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"KESQ","url":"https://kesq.com/kunamundo/noticias-cnn/cnn-spanish/2026/09/29/iran-ha-perdido-una-influencia-considerable-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-esto-no-puede-continuar-asi-para-siempre","headline":"Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T17:56:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Local 3 News","url":"https://local3news.com/regional-national/en-espanol/ir-n-ha-perdido-una-influencia-considerable-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-esto-no-puede/article_42e24c0d-6fac-5f8b-9a59-754b84c2a189.html","headline":"Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. 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This Cannot Continue Forever.","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-09-29T17:56:28.000Z"},{"sourceName":"kioncentralcoast.com","url":"https://kioncentralcoast.com/t23/noticias-cnn/cnn-spanish/2026/09/29/iran-ha-perdido-una-influencia-considerable-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-esto-no-puede-continuar-asi-para-siempre","headline":"Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. 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The Danas article cited the Wall Street Journal, while the Telegrafi digest referred to Vortexa data and the Semafor digest quoted Kpler research.","Danas’ full report added that Iran’s capacity to interrupt the flow is weakening, allowing the U.S. Navy and Gulf producers to evade attacks more effectively. It noted Saudi Arabia’s continued pipeline exports after repairs, although volumes remain lower, and said the brief price dip was outweighed by market concerns over stalled U.S., Iran talks.","The Telegrafi and Semafor digests did not mention Iran’s reduced leverage, the U.S., Iran negotiation context, or Saudi pipeline repairs, limiting their coverage to percentage figures. None of the three left‑rated pieces provided a cost estimate for the increased shipments."],"centre":["The centre-rated reports highlighted the divergence in estimates between JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs regarding oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Both outlets noted JP Morgan's figure of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, for crude oil exports. They also reported Goldman Sachs' higher estimate of 23.3 million barrels per day for oil outflows in the Persian Gulf. Bloomberg's report included a quote from JP Morgan analysts stating, \"The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again,\" and noting it was \"a remarkable recovery for a region still at war.\""],"right":["Right-rated reports focused on the recovery of Middle East oil exports to near pre-war levels, often framing it as a blow to Iran's leverage. Yonhap News Agency's full report cited JP Morgan's estimate of 17.5 million barrels per day, 98% of pre-war levels, and Kpler's figure of 13.1 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz. It also mentioned the use of 'oil shuttle services' for exports and the potential weakening of Iran's negotiating position. 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