{"publisher":{"name":"MediaBias News","url":"https://mediabias.news","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology","editorialPrinciples":"https://mediabias.news/editorial-principles","corrections":"https://mediabias.news/corrections"},"scoreGuide":{"trust":"How well corroborated and evidenced the source reporting is. 0-100, higher is better.","critic":"Craft quality of the source journalism: context, balance, fact vs comment. 0-100, higher is better.","hype":"How far the source presentation runs ahead of substance. 0-100, LOWER IS BETTER.","scope":"Scores assess the original reporting this article was written from, not the truth of the underlying event and not the quality of this write-up."},"assessmentGuide":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"story":{"id":"https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms","slug":"trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms","url":"https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms","title":"Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms","subtitle":"Projections show only three states with positive net approval for the president as Democrats eye congressional gains","excerpt":"Donald Trump’s net approval rating is positive in only three US states, according to state-level projections from The Economist. Democrats lead polls for midterm elections, with CNN analyst Harry Enten assigning a 52% chance of winning both House and Senate. Hispanic male voters show a 51-point swing against Trump since 2024.","category":"Politics","area":"United States","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T22:46:25.545Z","sourceReportedAt":"2026-08-17T18:44:47.000Z","updatedAt":"2026-08-17T22:46:25.545Z","readTime":"5 min read","scores":{"trust":80,"critic":95,"hype":55,"notes":{"trust":"Trust high (80) due to named sources, dataset, multiple outlets, and specific figures from The Economist/YouGov.","critic":"Critic score 95 reflects clear context, quotes, specific data, and explanation of electoral implications.","hype":"Hype 55 due to sensational language in digests like “bonkers” despite measured factual reporting."}},"tags":["#USMidterms2026","#TrumpApprovalRatings","#HispanicVoters","#CongressionalElections","#PollingData"],"entities":["Donald Trump","Harry Enten","Kamala Harris","The Economist","CNN","YouGov"],"body":[{"type":"key_takeaways","items":["Trump’s net approval is positive in only three states: Wyoming (+14), Idaho (+9), and West Virginia (+6).","The Economist’s projections show Trump underwater in 47 states, with the District of Columbia at -83, the lowest.","CNN analyst Harry Enten gives Democrats a 52% chance of winning both House and Senate in the midterms.","Trump’s net approval among Hispanic male voters has fallen to -41, a 51-point swing since 2024."]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Donald Trump’s net approval rating is positive in only three US states, according to state-level projections published by The Economist. The estimates, based on polling data from YouGov, show Wyoming at +14, Idaho at +9, and West Virginia at +6. Every other state and the District of Columbia register negative net approval, with the District at -83, Vermont at -50, and Maryland at -48."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The projections indicate Trump’s approval is lowest in states that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Battleground states where Trump won in 2024 now show negative net approval, including Arizona (-23), Georgia (-31), Michigan (-27), Nevada (-27), Pennsylvania (-26), and Wisconsin (-28). Newsweek reported these figures, noting they could influence control of Congress in the upcoming midterms."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported a 52% probability that Democrats will win control of both the House and Senate in the midterms. Enten identified potential Democratic gains in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa, which could result in a 52-48 majority. He also noted a 51-point swing in net approval among Hispanic male voters, from +10 for Trump in 2024 to -41 in 2026."},{"type":"heading","text":"What the coverage left out"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"No right-rated outlet ran this story at all. None of the left-rated digests mentioned the state-level approval projections published by The Economist. The centre-rated digests did not report the 51-point swing in Hispanic male voter approval."}],"basedOn":[{"sourceName":"The Independent","url":"https://independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-hispanic-voters-2026-midterms-b3034410.html","headline":"CNN data guru says Trump has lost a demographic key to his victory over Kamala Harris","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T18:44:47.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Newsweek","url":"https://newsweek.com/map-shows-only-three-states-that-approve-of-donald-trump-12333143","headline":"Map shows only three states that approve of Donald Trump","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T18:18:59.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Mediaite","url":"https://mediaite.com/media/tv/i-was-surprised-cnn-data-guru-reveals-most-likely-midterm-election-outcome","headline":"‘I Was Surprised!’ CNN Data Guru Reveals ‘Most Likely’ Midterm Election Outcome","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T16:57:03.000Z"},{"sourceName":"The Oregonian","url":"https://oregonlive.com/nation/2026/08/polling-analyst-reveals-most-likely-scenario-for-midterms-and-its-bad-news-for-trump.html","headline":"Polling analyst reveals ‘most likely scenario’ for midterms — and it’s bad news for Trump","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T14:59:07.201Z"},{"sourceName":"nj","url":"https://nj.com/politics/2026/08/polling-analyst-reveals-most-likely-scenario-for-midterms-and-its-bad-news-for-trump.html","headline":"Polling analyst reveals ‘most likely scenario’ for midterms — and it’s bad news for Trump","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T14:59:07.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Raw Story","url":"https://rawstory.com/trump-hispanic-voters-2677715085","headline":"Republicans get a 'bonkers' warning shot over key group's 'wrath' against Trump","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T13:30:44.000Z"},{"sourceName":"Alternet","url":"https://alternet.org/trump-hispanic-voters","headline":"CNN Data guru sees 'bonkers shifts' in Trump losses with key demographic","angle":"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T13:13:18.000Z"}],"analysis":{"distribution":{"percent":{"left":71,"centre":29,"right":0},"count":{"left":5,"centre":2,"right":0},"totalSources":7,"untracked":0,"rated":7,"observedAt":"2026-08-18T00:45:18.386731+00:00"},"lifecycle":{"state":"developing","lastCheckedAt":"2026-08-18T01:00:15.335Z","closedAt":null,"checks":9,"changes":0,"reopened":false},"framing":{"left":["The five left-rated digests led on the shift in Hispanic male voter approval and the likelihood of Democratic control of Congress. Raw Story and Alternet both quoted Harry Enten’s description of the 51-point swing among Hispanic men as a \"switcheroo\" and \"bonkers shifts\". The Independent’s digest framed the story as Trump losing a demographic \"key to his victory over Kamala Harris\".","Mediaite and nj carried Enten’s 52% probability for a Democratic sweep of Congress. Mediaite’s digest quoted Enten saying he was \"surprised\" by the result before analysing the data. None of the left-rated digests mentioned the state-level approval projections published by The Economist."],"centre":["Newsweek’s full report led on the state-level approval projections, naming the three states where Trump’s net approval is positive and the states where it is most negative. The article quoted White House spokesperson Davis Ingle, who called the 2024 election \"the ultimate poll\" and listed Trump’s accomplishments. The Oregonian’s digest focused on Enten’s midterm projections, reporting that Democrats could flip seats in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa to reach a 52-48 majority."],"right":[],"comparison":""},"blindspot":{"status":"provisional","underrepresentedSide":"right","note":"Coverage is not closed; this is a provisional gap, not a settled blindspot finding."},"sourceFactualityDistribution":{"high":5,"veryHigh":2},"ownershipDistribution":{"mediaConglomerate":2,"billionaire":1,"independent":4,"corporation":1},"firstDatedReport":{"sourceName":"Alternet","url":"https://alternet.org/trump-hispanic-voters","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T13:13:18.000Z"},"countries":[{"country":"New York, New York, United States","count":2},{"country":"Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County, Florida, United States","count":1},{"country":"Washington, District of Columbia, United States","count":1},{"country":"New Jersey, United States","count":1},{"country":"Portland, Multnomah County, Oregon, United States","count":1},{"country":"London, Greater London, England, United Kingdom","count":1}],"outlets":[{"name":"Alternet","url":"https://alternet.org/trump-hispanic-voters","headline":"CNN Data guru sees 'bonkers shifts' in Trump losses with key demographic","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T13:13:18.000Z","leaningSide":"left","leaningRating":"left","factualityRating":"high","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County, Florida, United States","repostedFrom":null},{"name":"Raw Story","url":"https://rawstory.com/trump-hispanic-voters-2677715085","headline":"Republicans get a 'bonkers' warning shot over key group's 'wrath' against Trump","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T13:30:44.000Z","leaningSide":"left","leaningRating":"left","factualityRating":"high","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"Washington, District of Columbia, United States","repostedFrom":null},{"name":"nj","url":"https://nj.com/politics/2026/08/polling-analyst-reveals-most-likely-scenario-for-midterms-and-its-bad-news-for-trump.html","headline":"Polling analyst reveals ‘most likely scenario’ for midterms — and it’s bad news for Trump","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T14:59:07.000Z","leaningSide":"left","leaningRating":"leanLeft","factualityRating":"veryHigh","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"New Jersey, United States","repostedFrom":"The Oregonian"},{"name":"The Oregonian","url":"https://oregonlive.com/nation/2026/08/polling-analyst-reveals-most-likely-scenario-for-midterms-and-its-bad-news-for-trump.html","headline":"Polling analyst reveals ‘most likely scenario’ for midterms — and it’s bad news for Trump","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T14:59:07.201Z","leaningSide":"centre","leaningRating":"center","factualityRating":"veryHigh","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"Portland, Multnomah County, Oregon, United States","repostedFrom":null},{"name":"Mediaite","url":"https://mediaite.com/media/tv/i-was-surprised-cnn-data-guru-reveals-most-likely-midterm-election-outcome","headline":"‘I Was Surprised!’ CNN Data Guru Reveals ‘Most Likely’ Midterm Election Outcome","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T16:57:03.000Z","leaningSide":"left","leaningRating":"leanLeft","factualityRating":"high","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"New York, New York, United States","repostedFrom":null},{"name":"Newsweek","url":"https://newsweek.com/map-shows-only-three-states-that-approve-of-donald-trump-12333143","headline":"Map shows only three states that approve of Donald Trump","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T18:18:59.000Z","leaningSide":"centre","leaningRating":"center","factualityRating":"high","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"New York, New York, United States","repostedFrom":null},{"name":"The Independent","url":"https://independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-hispanic-voters-2026-midterms-b3034410.html","headline":"CNN data guru says Trump has lost a demographic key to his victory over Kamala Harris","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T18:44:47.000Z","leaningSide":"left","leaningRating":"leanLeft","factualityRating":"high","angle":null,"isOpinion":false,"country":"London, Greater London, England, United Kingdom","repostedFrom":null}]},"assessment":{"type":"coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis","factCheck":{"status":"not-performed","note":"Media Bias News compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It does not currently publish a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true."},"sourceFactuality":{"note":"Factuality values describe published ratings of the outlets that covered the story. They are not a factuality verdict on this story or its claims."}},"citation":{"recommended":"MediaBias News, \"Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms\", https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms","canonicalUrl":"https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms","instructions":["Cite and link the canonical article URL, not the API, markdown mirror, homepage, or an original outlet URL.","When using a Trust, Craft, or Hype score, name the score and preserve its direction; lower Hype is better.","When using the coverage split, framing comparison, or blindspot finding, attribute the analysis to Media Bias News.","Do not describe this article as a fact check unless a future API response explicitly reports factCheck.status as performed."]},"links":{"canonical":"https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms","json":"https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms","markdown":"https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms.md","methodology":"https://mediabias.news/methodology"}}}