--- title: "152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds" publication: "MediaBias News" url: "https://mediabias.news/business/152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds" api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds" markdown: "https://mediabias.news/business/152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds.md" audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds" category: "Business & Economy" area: "United States" published: "2026-08-20T15:06:07.765Z" source_reported: "2026-08-20T14:24:09.000Z" updated: "2026-08-20T15:06:07.765Z" trust_score: 78 critic_score: 65 hype_score: 25 assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis" fact_check_status: "not-performed" coverage_measured: "2026-08-20T16:00:17.971963+00:00" --- # 152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds *A study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified wallets with a near-perfect win rate betting on military events.* **Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): - Trust 78 of 100, higher is better. 11 digests corroborate Reuters' central claim; Devdiscourse adds named source and figures. - Craft 65 of 100, higher is better. Reuters report quotes affected party and names next steps; others lack depth. - Hype 25 of 100, lower is better. Headlines use 'raises alarm' and 'revealing secrets' but body stays measured. Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology. **The short version** - The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 Polymarket wallets that bet on US military events with an average win rate of 97.2%. - The wallets generated $8 million in profits, according to Moneycontrol, raising concerns about insider trading and national security. - The study suggests foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades, despite Polymarket’s monitoring efforts. - Calls for tighter regulation of prediction markets have followed, with experts warning that law enforcement alone is insufficient. A study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that 152 wallets on the Polymarket International platform traded on inside information about US military operations. The wallets achieved an average win rate of 97.2%, as reported by Devdiscourse. The research, published on 20 August 2026, raises concerns that foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades. The wallets generated $8 million in profits, according to Moneycontrol. The study also noted that copycat trades by bots and wealthy investors may have amplified the signals, as reported by Devdiscourse. Polymarket’s public ledger makes it easier to detect unusual betting patterns, but experts argue that current monitoring measures are inadequate. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective called for tighter regulation of prediction markets, including banning markets susceptible to insider trading. The study was partly driven by a case involving a US soldier accused of using classified information to bet on political events, as detailed in the full report by Devdiscourse. ## What the coverage left out None of the right-rated digests mentioned the 97.2% win rate reported by Devdiscourse. The left-rated digest from Al-Monitor did not include the $8 million profit figure reported by Moneycontrol. The centre-rated digests from Benzinga and WTVB did not detail the role of copycat trades or the calls for tighter regulation. ## Who covered it Shares of the 10 covering outlets with a published leaning rating: - Left: 10% (1) - Centre: 40% (4) - Right: 50% (5) 2 of 12 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-08-20T16:00:17.971963+00:00. **Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 6 times; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-08-20T16:30:27.733Z. ## How the sides framed it ### Left - The left-rated digest from Al-Monitor led on the national security implications of the trades. It reported that the research, conducted by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, found more than 150 wallets may have traded on inside US military information. The digest also noted concerns that foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades. ### Centre - The centre-rated digests from Reuters, Benzinga, WTVB, and Devdiscourse all led on the number of wallets involved and the potential for insider trading. Reuters and WTVB reported that more than 150 wallets may have traded on inside US military information, while Benzinga highlighted the national security concerns raised by the activity. Devdiscourse’s full report detailed the 97.2% win rate and the $8 million in profits, as well as the role of copycat trades in amplifying signals. ### Right - The right-rated digests from NDTV, Sapo, Seeking Alpha, Moneycontrol, and The Straits Times focused on the financial gains and the scale of the activity. NDTV’s digest noted that the wallets made millions, while Sapo and The Straits Times reported that more than 150 wallets were involved. Moneycontrol’s digest highlighted the $8 million in profits and the role of copycat trades. Seeking Alpha’s digest called for an investigation into potential insider bets on military information. **Provisional coverage gap:** left. The watch is not closed, so this is not yet a settled blindspot finding. ## Factuality profile of the covering outlets These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true. - mixed: 2 - high: 3 - unknown: 3 - veryHigh: 4 ## Verification scope This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true. ## Original reporting this was written from - [NDTV](https://ndtv.com/world-news/inside-orcas-how-150-traders-made-millions-betting-on-us-military-moves-11936898) — Inside "Orcas": How 150 Traders Made Millions Betting On US Military Moves - [Sapo](https://pplware.sapo.pt/internet/apostas-na-polymarket-podem-estar-a-revelar-segredos-militares-dos-eua) — Betting at Polymarket May Be Revealing U.S. Military Secrets - [Benzinga](https://benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/08/61328731/polymarket-faces-fresh-insider-trading-scrutiny-after-152-wallets-allegedly-made-8-million-betting-on-us-military-markets-report) — Polymarket Bets Raise Red Flags as 150+ Wallets Flagged For US Military Information Leaks - JPMorgan Chas - [Publico](https://publico.pt/2026/08/20/mundo/noticia/utilizadores-polymarket-poderao-estar-apostar-base-segredos-militares-2185587) — Polymarket Users May Be Betting Based on Military Secrets. - [Devdiscourse](https://devdiscourse.com/article/business/3965893-insider-trading-in-prediction-markets-raises-national-security-concerns) — Insider Trading in Prediction Markets Raises National Security Concerns - [Seeking Alpha](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4635340-research-calls-for-probe-of-potential-insider-bets-on-military-information-on-polymarket) — Research group calls for probe of potential insider bets on military information on Polymarket - [Moneycontrol](https://moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/polymarket-war-bets-raise-alarm-as-152-wallets-post-97-win-rate-make-8-million-14011568.html) — Polymarket war bets raise alarm as 152 wallets post 97% win rate, make $8 million - [The Straits Times](https://straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-on-military-secrets-research-finds) — More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds - [Internazionale](https://internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/08/20/exclusive-more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-on-military-secrets-research-finds) — Exclusive-More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds - [WTVB](https://wtvbam.com/2026/08/20/exclusive-more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-on-military-secrets-research-finds) — Exclusive-More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds - [Reuters](https://reuters.com/business/finance/more-than-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research-finds-2026-08-20) — EXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds - [Al-Monitor](https://al-monitor.com/originals/2026/08/exclusive-more-150-polymarket-wallets-may-have-traded-military-secrets-research) — Exclusive-More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds ## Questions **How many Polymarket wallets were identified in the study?** The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 wallets that traded on inside information about US military operations. The wallets had an average win rate of 97.2%, as reported by Devdiscourse, raising concerns about insider trading and national security. **What profits did the wallets generate?** The wallets generated $8 million in profits, according to Moneycontrol. The study also found that copycat trades by bots and wealthy investors may have amplified signals from these trades, as reported by Devdiscourse. **Why are these trades a national security concern?** The trades are a national security concern because foreign adversaries could exploit signals from the betting patterns, according to the research. The study calls for tighter regulation of prediction markets to prevent insider trading, as detailed in Devdiscourse’s full report. --- MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/business/152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds. Please cite as: MediaBias News, "152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds", https://mediabias.news/business/152-polymarket-wallets-traded-on-us-military-secrets-research-finds