--- title: "Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes" publication: "MediaBias News" url: "https://mediabias.news/business/barclays-forecasts-two-us-federal-reserve-rate-hikes" api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/barclays-forecasts-two-us-federal-reserve-rate-hikes" markdown: "https://mediabias.news/business/barclays-forecasts-two-us-federal-reserve-rate-hikes.md" audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/barclays-forecasts-two-us-federal-reserve-rate-hikes" category: "Business & Economy" published: "2026-08-31T13:45:54.202Z" source_reported: "2026-08-31T13:24:00.000Z" updated: "2026-08-31T13:45:54.202Z" trust_score: 60 critic_score: 60 hype_score: 20 assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis" fact_check_status: "not-performed" coverage_measured: "2026-08-31T15:08:19.086Z" --- # Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes *The bank reversed its earlier stance, now expecting increases in September and December.* **Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): - Trust 60 of 100, higher is better. Two full reports and 13 digests corroborate the central claim, with Reuters cited as the source for Barclays' forecast. - Craft 60 of 100, higher is better. The reporting clearly separates Barclays' forecast from Fed Chair Warsh's remarks and explains the market reaction. - Hype 20 of 100, lower is better. Headlines are direct and accurately reflect the content of the reports, with no sensationalism. Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology. **The short version** - Barclays now expects the US Federal Reserve to implement two 25 basis point interest rate increases this year. - The previous forecast from Barclays was that rates would remain unchanged for the remainder of the year. - The shift in Barclays' prediction is attributed to recent comments by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. - Markets are pricing in a 60.4% chance of a rate hike in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Barclays has revised its forecast for US interest rates, now predicting two 25 basis point hikes by the Federal Reserve in September and December. This marks a reversal from its prior expectation that rates would be held steady through the end of the year. The change in outlook follows recent statements from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which have been interpreted as signalling a more hawkish monetary policy stance. Warsh's remarks, delivered at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, indicated ongoing concerns about inflation and suggested that financial conditions might not yet be sufficiently restrictive. He noted that inflation remained elevated and labour market conditions were consistent with full employment, complicating the Fed's policy decisions. The combination of persistent price pressures and a strong labour market has increased the possibility of further tightening rather than easing. Financial markets have responded to Warsh's comments by increasing their expectations for a rate hike. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 60.4% probability of a rate increase in September. Interest-rate futures also reflect a stronger expectation for near-term borrowing cost increases. ## Coverage comparison ## What the coverage left out None of the left-rated reports covered this story. The right-rated reports did not mention the CME Group's FedWatch tool or the specific probability figure it assigned to a September rate hike. ## Who covered it Shares of the 11 covering outlets with a published leaning rating: - Left: 0% (0) - Centre: 64% (7) - Right: 36% (4) 7 of 18 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-08-31T15:08:19.086Z. **Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 8 times; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-08-31T16:00:16.689Z. ## How the sides framed it ### Left No separate framing summary. ### Centre - Centre-rated reports led with Barclays' revised forecast of two interest rate hikes in September and December. These reports highlighted that this prediction reverses the bank's earlier view of no further rate changes for the year. They noted that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent remarks strengthened expectations of monetary tightening, citing his comments on elevated inflation and restrictive financial conditions. The market's pricing of a 60.4% probability for a September hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, was also a key point. ### Right - Right-rated reports also focused on Barclays' expectation of two 25 basis point rate increases in September and December. These reports mentioned that the shift followed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks, which signalled a more hawkish stance. The digests from these outlets stated that Barclays now expects these hikes after Warsh's latest comments. One report mentioned that Barclays sees two U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes as inflation concerns persist. **Provisional coverage gap:** left. The watch is not closed, so this is not yet a settled blindspot finding. ## Factuality profile of the covering outlets These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true. - veryLow: 1 - mixed: 3 - high: 4 - unknown: 7 - veryHigh: 3 ## Verification scope This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true. ## Original reporting this was written from - [Investing.com](https://investing.com/news/economy-news/barclays-sees-two-more-fed-rate-hikes-this-year-after-warsh-speech-4882134) — Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech - [The Star Kuala Lumpur](https://thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/08/31/barclays-sees-two-more-fed-rate-hikes-this-year-after-warsh-speech) — Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech - [Quartz](https://qz.com/barclays-fed-rate-hikes-warsh-jackson-hole-083126) — Barclays forecasts two Fed rate hikes after Warsh Jackson Hole speech - [MSNBCTV NEWS](https://msnbctv.news/barclays-forecasts-two-fed-rate-hikes-after-warsh-jackson-hole-speech) — Barclays forecasts two Fed rate hikes after Warsh Jackson Hole speech - [alborsaanews.com](https://alborsaanews.com/2026/08/31/1989502) — Barclays Expects to Raise US Interest in September and December. - [[your]NEWS](https://yournews.com/2026/08/31/7181841/barclays-sees-two-u-s-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-as-inflation) — Barclays Sees Two U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Hikes as Inflation Concerns Persist - [The Cryptonomist](https://cryptonomist.ch/2026/08/31/aumenti-tassi-fed-2026) — Rate Increases Fed 2026: Barclays Changes Forecast - [Blockonomi](https://blockonomi.com/feds-warsh-signals-two-more-rate-hikes-after-hawkish-jackson-hole-remarks) — Fed's Warsh Signals Two More Rate Hikes After Hawkish Jackson Hole Remarks - [cedarnews.net](https://cedarnews.net/newstasks/956393/barclays-sees-two-more-fed-rate-hikes) — Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year - [Cryptocurrency News | Cryptocurrency Prices | Market Cap](https://cryptocurrency.com.tr/barclays-predicts-two-more-fed-rate-hikes-after-warsh-speech-359803) — Barclays predicts two more Fed rate hikes after Warsh speech - [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/barclays-fed-rate-hikes-warsh-speech) — Barclays predicts two more Fed rate hikes after Warsh speech - [Times of India](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-barclays-turns-hawkish-on-fed-sees-two-rate-hikes-in-2026/articleshow/133647487.cms) — US Stock Market: Barclays turns hawkish on Fed, sees two rate hikes in 2026 - [The Economic Times](https://m.economictimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-stock-market-barclays-turns-hawkish-on-fed-sees-two-rate-hikes-in-2026/articleshow/133647487.cms) — US Stock Market: Barclays turns hawkish on Fed, sees two rate hikes in 2026 - [BNR Nieuwsradio](https://bnr.nl/nieuws/economie/10609252/dnb-ziet-juist-meer-transparantie-in-zwijgzamere-koers-van-fed) — DNB Actually Sees More Transparency in the Fed's More Silent Course. - [BizToc](https://biztoc.com/x/f5a8ba1c6bf58f7f) — Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech - [Reuters](https://reuters.com/business/finance/barclays-sees-two-more-fed-rate-hikes-this-year-after-warsh-speech-2026-08-31) — Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech - [WTVB](https://wtvbam.com/2026/08/31/barclays-sees-two-more-fed-rate-hikes-this-year-after-warsh-speech) — Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech - [Market Screener](https://marketscreener.com/news/barclays-sees-two-more-fed-rate-hikes-this-year-after-warsh-speech-ce7858dcdd8cff24) — Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech ## Questions **What is Barclays' new forecast for US interest rates?** Barclays now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and again in December. This is a change from their previous forecast of no rate changes for the rest of the year. **Why has Barclays changed its forecast?** The change follows recent remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that strengthened expectations of further monetary tightening. Warsh indicated that inflation remained elevated and financial conditions were not sufficiently restrictive. **What is the market's expectation for a September rate hike?** According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 60.4% probability of a rate hike in September, reflecting increased expectations following Warsh's comments. --- MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/business/barclays-forecasts-two-us-federal-reserve-rate-hikes. Please cite as: MediaBias News, "Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes", https://mediabias.news/business/barclays-forecasts-two-us-federal-reserve-rate-hikes