--- title: "Oil majors expect profits to surge on Iran war" publication: "MediaBias News" url: "https://mediabias.news/business/oil-majors-expect-profits-to-surge-on-iran-war" api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/oil-majors-expect-profits-to-surge-on-iran-war" markdown: "https://mediabias.news/business/oil-majors-expect-profits-to-surge-on-iran-war.md" audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/oil-majors-expect-profits-to-surge-on-iran-war" category: "Business & Economy" area: "Middle East" published: "2026-10-20T11:05:28.458Z" source_reported: "2026-10-20T10:00:19.000Z" updated: "2026-10-20T11:05:28.458Z" trust_score: 74 critic_score: 95 hype_score: 15 assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis" fact_check_status: "not-performed" coverage_measured: "2026-10-20T11:00:41.557873+00:00" --- # Oil majors expect profits to surge on Iran war *Companies anticipate higher refining margins and cash flow due to conflict in the Middle East.* **Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): - Trust 74 of 100, higher is better. Trust high (74) due to named analysts, HSBC data, specific figures and dates; only one original report limits corroboration. - Craft 95 of 100, higher is better. Critic score 95 as article explains relevance, quotes officials, separates facts, gives specifics, and outlines next steps. - Hype 15 of 100, lower is better. Hype low (15); language is measured, no sensational adjectives, headline matches article content. Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology. **The short version** - Oil majors anticipate a substantial rise in third-quarter profits, with refining margins expected to increase three- to fourfold compared to the previous year. - Shell is guiding for a record refining margin of $42 a barrel, while TotalEnergies expects its refining and chemicals business cash flow to double. - Investors are focused on how oil companies will allocate their increased earnings, with debt reduction and disciplined spending being key considerations. - HSBC forecasts Shell will announce a $3.5 billion share buyback in the fourth quarter, and Citi data suggests BP's net debt to operating cash flow will fall significantly. Major oil companies are set to report a significant increase in third-quarter profits, driven by higher refining and trading results attributed to the war in Iran. The conflict has led to multi-year highs in energy prices, creating volatility that trading desks have profited from. Companies including Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies expect their refining margins to triple or quadruple from a year ago. Shell is specifically guiding for a record high refining margin of $42 a barrel. TotalEnergies anticipates its cash flow from refining and chemicals will double to approximately $4 billion compared to the previous quarter. Exxon has also signalled that higher refining margins could boost its downstream profit by $4.5 billion from the prior quarter. ## Spending plans under scrutiny As oil majors prepare to release their third-quarter results, investors are closely examining their spending plans. While companies have historically struggled with cost control during periods of high earnings, they have pledged to maintain discipline this time. Chevron and Exxon have so far used their increased cash to pay down debt. Analysts are monitoring Chevron's investments in Venezuela and its efforts to extend its contract for the TCO joint venture in Kazakhstan. HSBC projects that Shell will announce a $3.5 billion share buyback for the fourth quarter, following a reduction in its buyback pace earlier in the year. BP's financial position is also improving, with Citi data indicating its net debt to operating cash flow is expected to fall from 1.7 times at the end of 2025 to 0.8 times by the third quarter. HSBC analysts suggest that BP's priority will remain deleveraging, with stable capital expenditure and no buyback resumption before 2028. ## What the coverage left out None of the right-rated reports below mention the specific figure of $3.5 billion for Shell's expected fourth-quarter buyback, a detail present in ARY News's full report. Furthermore, no left-rated outlet ran this story. ## Who covered it Shares of the 6 covering outlets with a published leaning rating: - Left: 0% (0) - Centre: 33% (2) - Right: 67% (4) 1 of 7 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-10-20T11:00:41.557873+00:00. **Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 1 time; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-10-20T11:15:37.026Z. ## How the sides framed it ### Left No separate framing summary. ### Centre - The centre-rated report from WTVB led on the expectation of increased third-quarter profits for oil majors due to the Iran war boosting energy prices and refining results. It highlighted that investors are monitoring how companies will manage their windfall, focusing on debt reduction and spending discipline over increased shareholder payouts and investments. The digest noted Shell, BP, Exxon, and other producers are preparing for stronger earnings. ### Right - The right-rated reports from ARY News, [your]NEWS, regionalmedianews.com, and The Straits Times all focused on oil majors facing a spending test amid windfall profits from the Iran war. ARY News, in its full report, detailed that the US-Israeli war on Iran has boosted refining and trading results, pushing energy prices to multi-year highs. It noted that companies like Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies expect refining margins to increase three- to fourfold, with Shell guiding for a record $42 a barrel. The reports also highlighted investor scrutiny over how companies will use their cash, with a focus on debt reduction and avoiding a spending spree. ARY News specifically mentioned BP's improving financial position, with net debt to operating cash flow expected to fall significantly, and HSBC's projection of a $3.5 billion buyback from Shell. ## Factuality profile of the covering outlets These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true. - mixed: 1 - high: 4 - unknown: 1 - veryHigh: 1 ## Verification scope This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true. ## Original reporting this was written from - [[your]NEWS](https://yournews.com/2026/10/20/7231122/oil-giants-face-spending-test-as-iran-war-boosts-energy) — Oil Giants Face Spending Test as Iran War Boosts Energy Profits - [Reuters](https://reuters.com/business/energy/oil-majors-face-spending-test-iran-war-windfall-cash-2026-10-20) — Oil majors face spending test from Iran war windfall cash - [ARY News](https://arynews.tv/oil-majors-face-spending-test-from-iran-war-windfall-cash) — Oil majors face spending test from Iran war windfall cash - [regionalmedianews.com](https://regionalmedianews.com/news/national/business/oil-majors-face-spending-test-from-iran-war-windfall-cash) — Oil majors face spending test from Iran war windfall cash - Regional Media News - [The Straits Times](https://straitstimes.com/business/oil-majors-face-spending-test-from-iran-war-windfall-cash) — Oil majors face spending test after Iran war windfall - [WTVB](https://wtvbam.com/2026/10/20/oil-majors-face-spending-test-from-iran-war-windfall-cash) — Oil majors face spending test from Iran war windfall cash - [BizToc](https://biztoc.com/x/26d6fecf8ca6c7f8) — Oil majors face spending test from Iran war windfall cash ## Questions **How much do oil majors expect their refining margins to increase?** Oil majors expect their third-quarter refining margins to increase three- to fourfold from a year ago. Shell is specifically guiding for a record high margin of $42 a barrel, indicating a substantial surge in profitability for the sector. **What is the main concern for investors regarding oil majors' profits?** Investors are primarily concerned with how oil majors will wisely use their increased cash piles. The focus is on whether companies will prioritise debt reduction and maintain spending discipline, rather than engaging in a spending spree or increasing shareholder payouts. **What financial improvements are expected for BP?** Citi data suggests BP's net debt to operating cash flow is projected to fall from 1.7 times at the end of 2025 to an expected 0.8 times by the third quarter. This indicates a significant strengthening of BP's balance sheet. --- MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/business/oil-majors-expect-profits-to-surge-on-iran-war. 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