---
title: "Global Carbon Pollution to Fall 0.4% in 2026"
publication: "MediaBias News"
url: "https://mediabias.news/climate/global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026"
api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026"
markdown: "https://mediabias.news/climate/global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026.md"
audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026"
category: "Climate"
published: "2026-11-10T14:25:16.143Z"
source_reported: "2026-11-10T13:45:53.000Z"
updated: "2026-11-10T14:25:16.143Z"
trust_score: 58
critic_score: 66
hype_score: 48
assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis"
fact_check_status: "not-performed"
coverage_measured: "2026-11-10T14:31:09.253024+00:00"
---

# Global Carbon Pollution to Fall 0.4% in 2026

*Decrease in fossil fuel emissions attributed to Iran war and renewables, but total CO2 rises.*

**Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): 

- Trust 58 of 100, higher is better. Central claim attributed to Global Carbon Project, with named scientists and specific figures, but relies on anonymous sourcing for some details.
- Craft 66 of 100, higher is better. Reports include expert commentary and context, but some are digests and lack original reporting depth.
- Hype 48 of 100, lower is better. Headlines and digests mention the Iran war and its impact, creating a sense of urgency and unexpected consequence.

Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology.

**The short version**

- Global carbon pollution from fossil fuels is projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, reaching 42.2 billion tons.
- The decrease is primarily attributed to oil supply shocks from the Iran war and the expansion of renewable energy sources.
- Oil emissions are expected to fall by nearly 2%, while coal emissions are projected to rise by 0.6%.
- Total global CO2 emissions, including land use changes, are forecast to increase by 1%.

Global carbon pollution from burning fossil fuels is projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, according to a study by the Global Carbon Project. This marks the third time in the 21st century that such emissions have fallen, following the 2009 recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The projected decrease amounts to 42.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

Scientists attribute this reduction primarily to supply shocks stemming from the Iran war, which has impacted oil prices and availability, and the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources. Oil emissions are expected to fall by nearly 2%, while natural gas emissions are forecast to decrease by 0.3%. Conversely, coal emissions are projected to rise by 0.6%.

However, total global CO2 emissions, which include those from land use changes such as deforestation and peat fires, are expected to increase by 1%. This rise is due to land use emissions increasing at a faster rate than fossil fuel emissions have decreased.

## Disagreement on the cause of the decline

While the Global Carbon Project study links the fossil fuel emission drop to the Iran war and renewables, some reports suggest a more nuanced view. CTV News quoted study co-author Glen Peters stating the decrease is "largely driven by the war in Iran, what’s happened in the Strait of Hormuz," and that it is "a little bit of good news, but for the wrong reasons." Conversely, some outlets highlight the role of renewable energy growth. The Indian Express digest attributes the decline to "supply shocks created by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the growing footprint of renewable energy sources."

## What the coverage left out

None of the left-rated digests mention the specific figure for total global CO2 emissions, which is projected to increase by 1%. None of the centre-rated digests mention the specific figure for total global CO2 emissions, which is projected to increase by 1%. None of the right-rated digests mention the specific figure for total global CO2 emissions, which is projected to increase by 1%.

## Who covered it

Shares of the 102 covering outlets with a published leaning rating:

- Left: 40% (41)
- Centre: 38% (39)
- Right: 22% (22)

58 of 160 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-11-10T14:31:09.253024+00:00.

**Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 3 times; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-11-10T15:00:08.397Z.

## How the sides framed it

### Left

- Left-rated reports highlighted the role of the Iran war in the decline of fossil fuel emissions, often framing it as a temporary or problematic cause. The Indian Express stated the decline was due to "supply shocks created by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the growing footprint of renewable energy sources." Semafor noted that "A reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution," quoting Professor Pierre Friedlingstein. HuffPost Italy's headline read, "Emissions From Fossil Sources Are Falling (Even for the War in Iran). But It Is a False Signal," and its digest mentioned the fall is "insufficient and not structural braking." In.gr's headline declared, "In the Iran War, Only the Climate Is the Winner - Carbon Emissions Dropped in 2026." SANA's digest stated the reduction was "Due to the Impact of the War on Oil Prices." Franceinfo.fr's headline noted "encouraging signs" but also pointed to "the effects of deforestation, which is still massive." Sydney Morning Herald reported "Greenhouse pollution down but global warming surges as climate talks begin," linking the fall to "the war in Iran and new renewables."

### Centre

- Centre-rated reports focused on the combination of factors leading to the emissions decrease, often noting the war's impact. CTV News' headline stated, "Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress," and its full report detailed how the war "effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping artery for petroleum products, pushing up global prices of gasoline and oil." ElNacional.cat's headline was "The 'Positive' and Unexpected Factor of the War with Iran," with its digest noting "The rise in the price of fossil fuels and supply disruptions cause a drop in emissions." Eesti Rahvusringhääling reported, "The US-Iran War Pushed Global Carbon Emissions Into a Long-Term Decline," but also stated "emissions are falling too slowly to meet climate goals." Observador's headline was "Renewable Energies and War in Iran Drive Down Carbon Emissions," and its digest mentioned "two thirds of carbon emissions are being supplied thanks to the expansion of alternative energies, but 'pulled down' by 'geopolitical crises is not' solution." TRT World's headline linked the Iran war to lower fossil fuel emissions, and its digest specified "oil-related emissions expected to drop 1.9 percent, although coal use is forecast to rise."

### Right

- Right-rated reports often highlighted the decline in fossil fuel emissions while cautioning about its sustainability or focusing on specific components of the change. Clarin's headline was "Iran's War Unexpectedly Caused a Decline in Carbon Emissions This Year," and its digest warned "this decline could be ephemeral." Observador's headline read, "Renewable Energies and War in Iran Drive Down Carbon Emissions," with its digest noting that "pulled down" by "geopolitical crises is not" a solution. Anadolu Ajansı's headline stated, "Iran War Disruption Expected to Curb Global Fossil Fuel Emissions, Scientists Say," and its digest noted "Oil-related emissions forecast to fall 1.9%, while coal emissions are expected to rise." Dagens Nyheter reported, "Renewable Energy and the Iran War Are Causing Emissions to Decrease," but quoted "This is not enough to put global emissions on a downward trend." N-tv's headline was "Despite Decline in Oil: Global CO2 Emissions Continue to Rise," and its digest stated "there is no reason for researchers to cheer." The National Herald's headline mirrored CTV News', "Heat-Trapping Carbon Pollution Drops, but Scientists Cite the Iran War Rather than Energy Progress."

## Factuality profile of the covering outlets

These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true.

- mixed: 8
- high: 49
- unknown: 58
- veryHigh: 45

## Verification scope

This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true.

## Original reporting this was written from

- [BNR Nieuwsradio](https://bnr.nl/nieuws/duurzaamheid/10615195/iran-oorlog-zorgt-wereldwijd-tijdelijk-voor-minder-uitstoot) — Iran War Temporarily Leads to Lower Emissions Worldwide
- [Indian Express](https://indianexpress.com/article/india/co2-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-projected-to-decline-in-2026-study-10957944) — CO2 emissions from fossil fuels projected to decline in 2026: Study
- [Semafor](https://semafor.com/article/11/10/2026/more-renewables-and-hormuz-disruption-drive-emissions-fall) — More renewables and Hormuz disruption drive emissions fall
- [Clarin](https://clarin.com/new-york-times-international-weekly/guerra-iran-provoco-inesperadamente-disminucion-emisiones-carbono-ano_0_t5lyfTnSeE.html) — Iran's War Unexpectedly Caused a Decline in Carbon Emissions This Year
- [Dnevnik](https://dnevnik.si/novice/svet/letos-pricakovan-prvi-padec-izpustov-od-fosilnih-goriv-po-letu-2020-2839654) — First Drop in Fossil Fuel Emissions Expected This Year Since 2020
- [HuffPost It](https://huffingtonpost.it/economia/2026/11/10/news/il_blocco_di_hormuz-23119083) — Emissions From Fossil Sources Are Falling (Even for the War in Iran). But It Is a False Signal
- [newsweek.ro](https://newsweek.ro/actualitate/emisiile-de-carbon-provenite-din-combustibili-fosili-ar-urma-sa-scada-pentru-prima-data-dupa-un-nivel-record) — Carbon Emissions From Fossil Fuels Would Fall for the First Time After a Record Level • Newsweek Romania
- [ElNacional.cat](https://elnacional.cat/ca/internacional/factor-positiu-inesperat-guerra-iran_1723334_102.html) — The 'Positive' and Unexpected Factor of the War with Iran
- [Phys.org](https://phys.org/news/2026-11-fossil-emissions-decrease-energy-growth.html) — Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026—driven by expansion of solar and wind power, electric vehicles, and the Iran conflict. Emissions from oil projected to decrease by 1.9%. Countries everywhere are decreasing emissions while growing their economies.
- [berria.eus](https://berria.eus/mundua/erregai-fosilekin-lotutako-co2-isuriak-04-gutxituko-dira-pandemiaz-geroztik-lehen-aldiz_2166330_102.html) — CO2 Emissions Related to Fossil Fuels Will Decrease for the First Time Since the Pandemic, by 0.4%
- [Document](https://document.no/2026/11/10/menneskehetens-co2-utslipp-forventes-a-oke-ogsa-i-2026) — Humanity's CO2 Emissions Are Expected to Increase in 2026 as Well
- [Mediafax](https://mediafax.ro/economic/emisiile-globale-de-carbon-provenite-din-combustibili-fosili-ar-urma-sa-scada-pentru-prima-data-dupa-un-nivel-record-ce-rol-au-preturile-energiei-si-razboiul-din-iran-23840750) — Global Carbon Emissions From Fossil Fuels Would Fall for the First Time After a Record Level. What Role Does Iran's Energy Prices and War Play
- [bworldonline.com](https://bworldonline.com/world/2026/11/10/792784/scientists-expect-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-to-ease-this-year) — Scientists expect global fossil fuel emissions to ease this year - BusinessWorld Online
- [nordisch.info](https://nordisch.info/natur-forschung/der-krieg-senkt-den-co%e2%82%82-ausstoss-dem-klima-hilft-das-nicht) — World Climate Conference: War Cuts CO2 Emissions – It Doesn't Help the Climate
- [geo](https://geo.de/natur/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen---trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel-38525028.html) — Climate Crisis: Global CO2 Emissions Rise – Despite a Decline in Fossil Fuels
- [EuropaWire.eu](https://news.europawire.eu/uea-scientists-project-fall-in-fossil-co%e2%82%82-emissions-in-2026-as-total-carbon-emissions-rise/eu-press-release/2026/11/10/11/10/05/186889) — UEA Scientists Project Fall in Fossil CO₂ Emissions in 2026 as Total Carbon Emissions Rise
- [Taipei Times](https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/11/10/2003867502) — Local experts discuss implications of shrinking global carbon budget
- [Eesti Rahvusringhääling](https://novaator.err.ee/1610191426/usa-iraani-soda-lukkas-maailma-susinikuheite-ule-pika-aja-langusesse) — The US-Iran War Pushed Global Carbon Emissions Into a Long-Term Decline
- [in.gr](https://in.gr/2026/11/10/in-science/perivallon-b-science/ston-polemo-tou-iran-nikitis-einai-mono-to-klima-oi-ekpompes-anthraka-meiothikan-to-2026) — In the Iran War, Only the Climate Is the Winner - Carbon Emissions Dropped in 2026
- [24 HU](https://24.hu/tech/2026/11/10/irani-haboru-covid-szendioxid-kibocsatas-globalis-csokkenes) — Something Unprecedented Has Happened Since Covid
- [Modern Ghana](https://modernghana.com/news/1543275/fossil-fuel-emissions-set-to-fall-for-first-time.html) — Fossil fuel emissions set to fall for first time since Covid, research shows
- [Observador](https://observador.pt/2026/11/10/energias-renovaveis-e-guerra-no-irao-impulsionam-queda-das-emissoes-de-carbono) — Renewable Energies and War in Iran Drive Down Carbon Emissions
- [estrepublicain.fr](https://estrepublicain.fr/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026) — Climate. Why Is a Slight Decrease in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected in 2026?
- [bienpublic.com](https://bienpublic.com/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026) — Climate. Why Is a Slight Decrease in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected in 2026?
- [ledauphine.com](https://ledauphine.com/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026) — Climate. Why Is a Slight Decrease in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected in 2026?
- [republicain-lorrain.fr](https://republicain-lorrain.fr/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026) — Climate. Why Is a Slight Decrease in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected in 2026?
- [leprogres.fr](https://leprogres.fr/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026) — Climate. Why Is a Slight Decrease in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected in 2026?
- [vosgesmatin.fr](https://vosgesmatin.fr/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026) — Climate. Why Is a Slight Decrease in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected in 2026?
- [lalsace.fr](https://lalsace.fr/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026) — Climate. Why Is a Slight Decrease in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected in 2026?
- [lejsl.com](https://lejsl.com/environnement/2026/11/10/pourquoi-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-est-attendue-en-2026) — Climate. Why Is a Slight Decrease in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Expected in 2026?
- [online-listing.com](https://online-listing.com/news/blogger/2026/11/10/cop31-live-slight-drop-in-fossil-fuel-emissions-revealed-as-conference-enters-second-day/happenings) — Cop31 live: slight drop in fossil fuel emissions revealed as conference enters second day
- [tpo.nl](https://tpo.nl/2026/11/10/uitstoot-fossiel-daalt-iran-oorlog-steenkoolrecord) — Fossil Fuel Emissions Fall Due to Iran War
- [TRT World](https://trtworld.com/article/0ff4d78bc0cb) — Scientists link Iran war to lower fossil fuel emissions in 2026
- [Énergies de la Mer](https://energiesdelamer.eu/2026/11/10/cop31-les-emissions-mondiales-de-co2-provenant-des-combustibles-fossiles-devraient-diminuer-de-04-en-2026-selon-une-nouvelle-etude-du-global-carbon-project) — COP31 - Global CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuels Are Expected to Decrease by 0.4% by 2026 According to a New Global Carbon Project Study
- [SANA](https://sana.sy/reports/2631149) — Report: This Year ' S Reduction in Fossil Fuel Emissions Due to the Impact of the War on Oil Prices
- [Anadolu Ajansı](https://aa.com.tr/en/world/iran-war-disruption-expected-to-curb-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-scientists-say/4118273) — Iran War Disruption Expected to Curb Global Fossil Fuel Emissions, Scientists Say
- [wissenschaft.de](https://wissenschaft.de/artikel/global-carbon-budget-2026-fossile-co2-emissionen-sinken) — Global Carbon Budget 2026: Fossil CO2 Emissions Fall - Total Emissions but Not
- [franceinfo.fr](https://franceinfo.fr/environnement/crise-climatique/le-rapport-du-global-carbon-project-prevoit-un-record-d-emissions-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-mais-repere-aussi-des-signes-encourageants_8275865.html) — Global Carbon Project Report Forecasts Record Greenhouse Gas Emissions, but Also Highlights Encouraging Signs
- [dialogos.com.cy](https://dialogos.com.cy/mikri-meiosi-ekpompon-co2-to-2026-pithanotata-na-einai-prosorini-lene-ereynites) — Small CO2 Emissions Reduction in 2026 Likely to Be Temporary, Researchers Say
- [연합뉴스-Yonhap News Agency](https://yna.co.kr/view/AKR20261110139200009) — The Paradox of the Iran War… Global Carbon Emissions Decline for the First Time Since the Pandemic
- [Hola News](https://holanews.com/las-renovables-y-la-guerra-de-iran-impulsan-una-caida-de-las-emisiones-globales-de-co2) — Renewables and Iran’s War Drive a Fall in Global CO2 Emissions
- [n-tv](https://n-tv.de/politik/Weltweite-CO2-Emissionen-steigen-weiter-id31514621.html) — Despite Decline in Oil: Global CO2 Emissions Continue to Rise
- [digitalchew.com](https://digitalchew.com/oil-renewables-surge-as-iran-war-disrupts) — Renewables Surge as Iran War Disrupts Oil Markets
- [ΑΘΗΝΑ 9,84](https://athina984.gr/2026/11/10/klima-pros-mikri-meiosi-ton-ekpompon-co2-to-2026-entharryntiki-alla-ochi-eparki) — Climate: Towards a Small Reduction in CO2 Emissions in 2026, "Encouraging" but "Not Sufficient"
- [Business Daily](https://businessdaily.gr/diethni/242752_problepsi-prosorinis-meiosis-ekpompon-co2-apo-orykta-kaysima-2026) — Forecast for Reduction of CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuels in 2026
- [informacion.es](https://informacion.es/sociedad/2026/11/10/emisiones-combustibles-fosiles-caida-primera-vez-desde-pandemia-crisis-ormuz-energias-renovables-136271191.html) — Emissions Fall for the First Time Since the Pandemic Thanks to the Expansion of Renewables and the Ormuz Crisis
- [elcorreogallego.es](https://elcorreogallego.es/sociedad/2026/11/10/emisiones-combustibles-fosiles-caida-primera-vez-desde-pandemia-crisis-ormuz-energias-renovables-136271205.html) — Emissions Fall for the First Time Since the Pandemic Thanks to the Expansion of Renewables and the Ormuz Crisis
- [lacronicabadajoz.com](https://lacronicabadajoz.com/sociedad/2026/11/10/emisiones-combustibles-fosiles-caida-primera-vez-desde-pandemia-crisis-ormuz-energias-renovables-136271206.html) — Emissions Fall for the First Time Since the Pandemic Thanks to the Expansion of Renewables and the Ormuz Crisis
- [Sydney Morning Herald](https://smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/greenhouse-pollution-down-but-global-warming-surges-as-climate-talks-begin-20261110-p61csp.html) — Greenhouse pollution down but global warming surges as climate talks begin
- [The Age](https://theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/greenhouse-pollution-down-but-global-warming-surges-as-climate-talks-begin-20261110-p61csp.html) — Greenhouse pollution down but global warming surges as climate talks begin
- [Brisbane Times](https://brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/climate-change/greenhouse-pollution-down-but-global-warming-surges-as-climate-talks-begin-20261110-p61csp.html) — Greenhouse pollution down but global warming surges as climate talks begin
- [WA today](https://watoday.com.au/environment/climate-change/greenhouse-pollution-down-but-global-warming-surges-as-climate-talks-begin-20261110-p61csp.html) — Greenhouse pollution down but global warming surges as climate talks begin
- [Dagens Nyheter.](https://dn.se/varlden/fornybar-energi-och-irankriget-far-utslappen-att-minska) — Renewable Energy and the Iran War Are Causing Emissions to Decrease
- [Science Daily](https://sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/11/261109205358.htm) — Global fossil fuel emissions set to fall in 2026, but total CO2 keeps rising
- [Euronews](https://euronews.com/2026/11/10/fossil-fuel-emissions-are-expected-to-fall-in-2026-why-arent-climate-experts-celebrating) — Fossil fuel emissions to dip in 2026, but total CO2 is still rising
- [Ara.cat](https://ara.cat/medi-i-crisi-climatica/transicio-energetica/guerra-l-iran-baixar-emissions-co2-cop-des-pandemia_130_5904331.html) — Iran War Lowers CO₂ Emissions for First Time Since Pandemic
- [NEWS9 LIVE](https://news9live.com/world/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-iran-war-cited-as-reason-not-progress-on-climate-change-3023217) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, Iran war cited as reason not progress on climate change
- [Sud Ouest](https://sudouest.fr/environnement/climat-avec-la-hausse-du-prix-du-petrole-les-emissions-mondiales-de-gaz-a-effet-de-serre-vont-legerement-baisser-en-2026-31464853.php) — Climate: With Rising Oil Prices, Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Will Fall Slightly in 2026
- [3cat.cat](https://3cat.cat/3catinfo/la-guerra-a-liran-provoca-un-descens-en-les-emissions-globals-de-co-dorigen-fossil-el-2026/noticia/3438813) — War in Iran Causes Decline in Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions by 2026
- [sofokleousin.gr](https://sofokleousin.gr/epikairotita/diethni/pagkosmio-paradokso-i-energeiaki-krisi-efere-meiosi-ton-ekpompon-) — Global Paradox: The Energy Crisis Brought a Reduction in CO₂ Emissions
- [Le Parisien](https://leparisien.fr/environnement/climat/boom-du-solaire-et-de-leolien-crise-petroliere-pourquoi-les-emissions-de-c02-sont-en-legere-baisse-10-11-2026-4VNGTMIUBVHPNLEADSA6RUURFU.php) — Solar and Wind Boom, Oil crisis... Why C02 Emissions Are Falling Slightly
- [La Croix](https://la-croix.com/climat-vers-une-legere-baisse-des-emissions-en-2026-encourageante-mais-pas-suffisante-20261110) — Climate: Slight Decline in Emissions in 2026, Due to the War in Iran and Renewables
- [economiematin.fr](https://economiematin.fr/emissions-co2-baisse-mondiale-2026-economies-croissance) — CO2 Emissions: the Global Decline Expected in 2026 and These 40 Economies that Are Changing Their Trajectory
- [watson](https://watson.ch/international/klima/875822668-erstmals-seit-corona-co-emissionen-aus-fossilen-energien-sinken) — For the First Time Since Corona: Global CO2 Emissions From Fossil Energy Are Falling
- [Sueddeutsche Zeitung](https://sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artikel/wissen/klima-emissionen-bericht-klimakrise-e793622) — Fossil Emissions Down 0.4 Percent
- [Eldiario.es](https://eldiario.es/sociedad/guerra-iran-frena-emisiones-mundiales-co2-suben-incendios-forestales-masivos_1_13649963.html) — Iran’s War Stops Global CO2 Emissions From Mass Forest Fires · Global Voices
- [L'EnerGeek](https://lenergeek.com/2026/11/10/petrole-charbon-emissions-co2-mondiales-2026) — Declining Oil, Rising Coal: Which Explains the Global Decline in CO2 in 2026
- [www.kleinezeitung.at](https://kleinezeitung.at/artikel/41435207/irankrieg-und-gruene-energie-lassen-globalen-co-ausstoss-sinken) — Iran War and Green Energy Reduce Global CO2 Emissions
- [The Japan Times](https://japantimes.co.jp/environment/2026/11/10/energy/fossil-fuel-emissions-fall) — Fossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war and renewables, research shows
- [Tagesschau](https://tagesschau.de/wissen/klima/emissionen-klimawandel-global-carbon-budget-100.html) — Research Report: Fossil CO2 Emissions Decrease Slightly
- [The National Herald](https://thenationalherald.com/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress) — Heat-Trapping Carbon Pollution Drops, but Scientists Cite the Iran War Rather than Energy Progress
- [Le Singulier](https://lesinguliersete.fr/les-emissions-mondiales-reculent-en-2026-un-repit-fragile-pour-le-climat) — Global Emissions Fall in 2026, a Fragile Respite for the Climate
- [La Stampa](https://lastampa.it/energie/2026/11/10/news/emissioni_gas_serra_calo_2026_global_carbon_buget_cop31-15793168) — Emissions, the First Drop After the Pandemic: Why Not Enough
- [Deutsche Welle](https://dw.com/en/iran-war-oil-shock-drives-dip-in-global-emissions-study-shows/a-79905937) — Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows
- [France24](https://france24.com/fr/info-en-continu/20261110-climat-vers-une-l%C3%A9g%C3%A8re-baisse-des-%C3%A9missions-en-2026-encourageante-mais-pas-suffisante) — Climate: Towards a Slight Drop in Emissions in 2026, "Encouraging" but "Not Enough"
- [Agi.it](https://agi.it/estero/news/2026-11-10/cop-31-calo-emissioni-2026-39956595) — COP31, CO2 Emissions Drop with Renewables and War in Iran
- [Libnanews, Le Média Citoyen du Liban](https://libnanews.com/emissions-mondiales-de-co%e2%82%82-leger-recul-fossile) — Global CO2 Emissions: Slight Decline in Fossil Fuel
- [Globo](https://g1.globo.com/meio-ambiente/noticia/2026/11/10/emissoes-fosseis-podem-cair-em-2026-mas-queda-e-incerta-entenda.ghtml) — Fossil Emissions May Fall in 2026, but Fall Is Uncertain; Understand
- [GMA Filipino News](https://gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/1008930/fossil-fuel-emissions-fall-due-to-iran-war-renewables-research/story) — Fossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war, renewables: research
- [RTS](https://rts.ch/info/monde/2026/article/climat-les-emissions-mondiales-de-co2-baissent-de-0-4-en-2026-29411388.html) — Climate: Global CO2 Emissions Fall by 0.4% in 2026
- [The Straits Times](https://straitstimes.com/world/fossil-fuel-emissions-fall-due-to-iran-war-renewables-research) — Fossil fuel emissions fall on Iran war and renewables
- [Le Monde](https://lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2026/11/10/fossil-fuel-related-co-emissions-show-slight-global-drop-an-encouraging-but-insufficient-sign_6776431_114.html) — Fossil Fuel-Related CO2 Emissions Show Light Global Drop, an Encouraging but Inadequate Sign
- [Issuesfr](https://issues.fr/les-emissions-de-combustibles-fossiles-ont-diminue-en-2026-lenergie-verte-nen-est-pas-la-raison) — Fossil Fuel Emissions Decreased in 2026. Green Energy Is Not the Reason
- [Noticias ao Minuto](https://noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/3081372/energias-renovaveis-e-conflito-no-irao-diminuem-emissoes-de-co2) — Renewable Energies and Conflict in Iran Decrease CO2 Emissions
- [Spiegel](https://spiegel.de/wissenschaft/weltweite-co-emission-aus-fossilen-brennstoffen-sinken-leicht-a-ce036f65-e59e-4fb8-9343-d6bbe9383fd1) — Global CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuels Decrease Slightly
- [The Hindu](https://thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article71684827.ece) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite Iran war rather than energy progress
- [My Mother Lode](https://mymotherlode.com/news/world/11295878/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Nieuws.nl](https://nieuws.nl/buitenland/mondiale-uitstoot-fossiele-brandstof-daalt-mogelijk-door-hormuz) — Global Fossil Fuel Emissions May Fall
- [welingelichtekringen.nl](https://welingelichtekringen.nl/samenleving/mondiale-uitstoot-fossiele-brandstof-daalt-mogelijk-door-hormuz) — Global Fossil Fuel Emissions May Drop Due to Hormuz
- [dagelijksestandaard.nl](https://dagelijksestandaard.nl/nieuws/mondiale-uitstoot-fossiele-brandstof-daalt-mogelijk-door-hormuz) — Global Fossil Fuel Emissions May Drop Due to Hormuz
- [mainwelle.de](https://mainwelle.de/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel-2540568) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising – Despite a Decline in Oil
- [CTV News](https://ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/article/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Times of India](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/fossil-fuel-emissions-fall-due-to-iran-war-and-renewables-finds-research/articleshow/135696311.cms) — Fossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war and renewables, finds research
- [Free Malaysia Today News](https://freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2026/11/10/scientists-expect-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-to-ease-this-year) — Scientists expect global fossil fuel emissions to ease this year
- [Washington Top News](https://wtop.com/national/2026/11/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress – WTOP News
- [WBAL](https://wbal.com/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war
- [The Toronto Star](https://thestar.com/news/world/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_42426504-afab-5f5f-b38e-a2e9e0b445dd.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [The Seattle Times](https://seattletimes.com/business/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Newsday](https://newsday.com/business/climate-fossil-fuels-emissions-pollution-war-energy-q44496) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Liberation](https://liberation.fr/environnement/climat-il-semblerait-quun-plateau-demissions-de-co2-ait-ete-atteint-20261110_PUTUFKFXPVGK7FNC37DWAWC57I) — Climate: "It Would Appear that a CO2 Emissions Plateau Has Been Reached"
- [Publico](https://publico.pt/2026/11/10/azul/noticia/preco-combustiveis-ajuda-travar-emissoes-co2-sera-temporario-2194321) — Fuel Price Helps to Stop CO2 Emissions, but Will Be Temporary
- [The Independent](https://independent.co.uk/news/iran-china-strait-of-hormuz-experts-norway-b3082098.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Associated Press News](https://apnews.com/article/climate-fossil-fuels-emissions-pollution-war-energy-3adab6b51554800012a11fa0936f34f8) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [The Independent (US)](https://the-independent.com/news/iran-china-strait-of-hormuz-experts-norway-b3082098.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Marietta Daily Journal](https://mdjonline.com/news/national/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_a0501be0-0aa8-5551-8276-f083c10affa0.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Ottumwa Courier](https://ottumwacourier.com/news/business/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_97bd089f-d118-52a5-b978-fae8b599b851.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer](https://messenger-inquirer.com/ap/ap_national_news/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_f40ec2d5-24b0-5e5d-8c94-8ffa86af37d3.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [The Herald Journal](https://hjnews.com/nation/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_88247819-ed0b-5e1c-962c-b526b394092d.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [The Northern Virginia Daily](https://nvdaily.com/associated_press_national/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_f29dc35e-9c98-5fb6-a43e-7e70c47d2d42.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Richmond Register](https://richmondregister.com/ap/business/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_30cee84e-8b21-5cc9-b40f-a155a78c095d.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [The Times-Tribune](https://thetimestribune.com/news/national_news/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_75391107-8d3c-5526-b8c9-db2a3926e47c.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [The Daily Star](https://thedailystar.com/news/national/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_4451d8fc-4d80-53fa-98c8-3bb3f981f6a5.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [union-bulletin.com](https://union-bulletin.com/news/national/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_f500002f-b0ac-5342-8bb2-41fa245be1a8.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [abc News](https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-scientists-cite-iran-137997095) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite Iran war
- [WKMG](https://clickorlando.com/business/2026/11/10/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [The Tribune-Democrat](https://tribdem.com/news/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_9705a0c4-fa08-57ff-9ec2-765d6301f059.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Science Media Centre](https://sciencemediacentre.org/the-global-carbon-budget) — The Global Carbon Budget
- [The Queenslander](https://theqldr.com.au/science-and-technology/2026/11/10/emissions-14) — Fuel crisis forces emissions down but a rebound looms
- [Reuters](https://reuters.com/sustainability/cop/scientists-expect-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-ease-this-year-2026-11-10) — Scientists expect global fossil fuel emissions to ease this year
- [RN](https://ruhrnachrichten.de/dpa-infoline-zvr/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel-w1272286-2002295189) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising – Despite a Decline in Oil
- [bbv-net.de](https://bbv-net.de/dpa-infoline-zvr/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel-w1272286-6000660291) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising – Despite a Decline in Oil
- [WTVB](https://wtvbam.com/2026/11/09/scientists-expect-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-to-ease-this-year) — Scientists expect global fossil fuel emissions to ease this year
- [sciencemediacentre.co.nz](https://sciencemediacentre.co.nz/2026/11/10/fossil-fuel-emissions-fall-but-co%E2%82%82-still-at-record-highs-expert-reaction) — Fossil fuel emissions fall, but CO₂ still at record highs - Expert Reaction - Science Media Centre
- [Badische Neueste Nachrichten](https://bnn.de/nachrichten/deutschland-und-welt/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-ol) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising – Despite a Decline in Oil
- [onetz.de](https://onetz.de/deutschland-welt/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel-id5558226.html) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising – Despite a Decline in Oil
- [The West Australian](https://thewest.com.au/news/weather/fuel-crisis-forces-emissions-down-but-a-rebound-looms-c-23140261) — Fuel crisis forces emissions down but a rebound looms
- [BizToc](https://biztoc.com/x/1352c30d220dcda8) — Global Carbon Emissions Set to Dip in 2026 After Iran War Oil Surge
- [ABC Australia](https://abc.net.au/news/2026-11-10/fossil-fuel-emissions-to-fall-in-2026-due-to-iran-war/107329262) — Renewables and Iran war help drive fall in global fossil fuel emissions
- [efeverde.com](https://efeverde.com/emisiones-fosiles-co2-caeran-primera-vez-pandemia) — Fossil Emissions Will Fall in 2026 for the First Time Since the Coronavirus Pandemic
- [dailymail.com](https://dailymail.com/sciencetech/article-16278201/Global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-decrease.html) — Carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease in 2026
- [NOS](https://nos.nl/artikel/2638804-iran-oorlog-leidt-tot-dipje-in-uitstoot-fossiele-brandstoffen) — Iran War Leads to Dip in Fossil Fuel Emissions
- [Gizmodo](https://gizmodo.com/global-fossil-fuel-emissions-actually-fell-in-2026-dont-get-used-to-it-2000837151) — Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Actually Fell in 2026. Don’t Get Used to It
- [Handelsblatt](https://handelsblatt.com/politik/international/klimakrise-weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel/100268579.html) — Climate Crisis: Global CO2 Emissions Rise – Despite Oil Decline
- [noz.de](https://noz.de/deutschland-welt/politik/artikel/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-ol-51723860) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising – Despite a Decline in Oil
- [Time Magazine](https://time.com/article/2026/11/10/fossil-fuel-emissions-decrease-2026) — Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Expected to Decrease in 2026
- [Energi og Klima](https://energiogklima.no/nyhet/varig-nedgang-i-globale-utslipp-noen-ar-unna) — – Lasting Decline in Global Emissions a Few Years Away
- [El Mundo](https://elmundo.es/ciencia/2026/11/10/6af1eb6121efa0e5728b4573.html) — Global CO2 Fossil Emissions Will Decrease 0.4% in 2026 Due Mainly to the War in Iran
- [El Pais](https://elpais.com/clima-y-medio-ambiente/2026-11-10/la-guerra-en-iran-y-las-renovables-hacen-caer-las-emisiones-de-co-del-sector-fosil-por-primera-vez-desde-la-pandemia.html) — War in Iran and Renewables Bring Down CO2 Emissions From the Fossil Sector for the First Time Since the Pandemic
- [Le Figaro](https://lefigaro.fr/sciences/climat-une-baisse-historique-des-emissions-de-co2-dans-le-monde-en-2026-20261110) — Climate: a Historical Decline in Global CO2 Emissions in 2026
- [NBC News](https://nbcnews.com/science/climate-change/war-iran-global-emissions-drop-2026-rcna607918) — War in Iran led global emissions to fall this year, research finds
- [Science News](https://sciencenews.org/article/fossil-fuel-emissions-down-2026-gas) — Fossil fuel emissions are down in 2026. Green energy isn’t the reason
- [saarbruecker-zeitung.de](https://saarbruecker-zeitung.de/sport/olympia2026/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel_aid-158117723) — Climate Crisis: Global CO2 Emissions Rise - Despite Oil Decline
- [sciencemediacenter.de](https://sciencemediacenter.de/angebote/global-carbon-budget-2026-26269) — Global Carbon Budget 2026
- [volksfreund.de](https://volksfreund.de/sport/olympia2024/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel_aid-158117731) — Climate Crisis: Global CO2 Emissions Rise - Despite Oil Decline
- [wz.de](https://wz.de/politik/ausland/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel_aid-158117719) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising - Despite a Decline in Oil
- [Bloomberg](https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-10/global-carbon-emissions-set-to-dip-in-2026-after-iran-war-oil-surge) — Global Carbon Emissions Set to Dip in 2026 After Iran War Oil Surge
- [TF1 INFO](https://tf1info.fr/environnement-ecologie/climat-les-emissions-de-co-liees-aux-energies-fossiles-devraient-baisser-et-le-conflit-en-iran-y-est-pour-beaucoup-2474779.html) — Climate: CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuels Are Expected to Decline, and the Conflict in Iran Is for Many
- [op-online.de](https://op-online.de/politik/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel-zr-94582242.html) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising – Despite a Decline in Oil
- [Le Temps](https://letemps.ch/sciences/environnement/les-emissions-de-carbone-fossile-baissent-en-2026-un-effet-de-la-guerre-en-iran-ou-le-premier-signe-d-une-evolution-salutaire) — Fossil Carbon Emissions Fell in 2026: an Effect of the War in Iran or the First Sign of a Salutary Evolution?
- [Zeit Online](https://zeit.de/news/2026-11/10/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-rueckgang-beim-oel) — Climate Crisis: Global CO2 Emissions Rise – Despite Oil Decline
- [nordbayern.de](https://nordbayern.de/schlagzeilen/weltweite-co2-emissionen-steigen-trotz-ruckgang-beim-ol-1.15347695) — Global CO2 Emissions Are Rising – Despite a Decline in Oil
- [La Vanguardia](https://lavanguardia.com/vida/20261110/11680273/gases-energia-fosil-bajan-2026-renovables-conflicto-iran.html) — Fossil Energy Gases Drop in 2026 by Renewables and the Conflict in Iran
- [Fox 10 Phoenix](https://fox10phoenix.com/news/iran-war-led-rare-carbon-dioxide-emissions-drop-year-scientists-say) — Iran war led to rare carbon dioxide emissions drop this year, scientists say
- [LiveNOW from FOX](https://livenowfox.com/news/iran-war-led-rare-carbon-dioxide-emissions-drop-year-scientists-say) — Iran war led to rare carbon dioxide emissions drop this year, scientists say
- [El Economista](https://eleconomista.com.mx/internacionales/emisiones-origen-fosil-cayeron-2026-guerra-iran-renovables-20261109-843020.html) — Fossil Emissions Fell in 2026 Due to Iran's War and Renewables
- [St Catharines Standard](https://stcatharinesstandard.ca/business/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_bbe4d56d-37c2-5539-8b54-ca61fb2b2f27.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [The Record](https://therecord.com/business/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_64022dd4-f8a9-5794-b80e-4ef116b6377a.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [WellandTribune.ca](https://wellandtribune.ca/business/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress/article_16e6eca9-acc0-572d-bf22-2ac4f3507695.html) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Winnipeg Free Press](https://winnipegfreepress.com/arts-and-life/life/greenpage/2026/11/09/heat-trapping-carbon-pollution-drops-but-scientists-cite-the-iran-war-rather-than-energy-progress) — Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress
- [Yale University](https://e360.yale.edu/digest/china-emissions-iran-war) — As War Roils Energy Markets, China Sees Its Emissions Drop

## Questions

**What is the projected change in global carbon pollution from fossil fuels in 2026?**

Global carbon pollution from fossil fuels is projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026. This amounts to an estimated 42.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide, marking the third reduction in the 21st century.

**What are the main reasons for the projected decrease in fossil fuel emissions?**

The decrease is primarily attributed to supply shocks caused by the Iran war, which has affected oil prices and availability, and the growing use of renewable energy sources. Oil emissions are expected to fall by nearly 2%.

**Will total global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?**

No, total global CO2 emissions, which include those from land use changes like deforestation, are expected to increase by 1% in 2026. This is because emissions from land use are rising faster than fossil fuel emissions are falling.

---

MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/climate/global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026. Please cite as: MediaBias News, "Global Carbon Pollution to Fall 0.4% in 2026", https://mediabias.news/climate/global-carbon-pollution-to-fall-04-in-2026