--- title: "Australia forecasts deaths to outnumber births by 2060s" publication: "MediaBias News" url: "https://mediabias.news/politics/australia-forecasts-deaths-to-outnumber-births-by-2060s" api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/australia-forecasts-deaths-to-outnumber-births-by-2060s" markdown: "https://mediabias.news/politics/australia-forecasts-deaths-to-outnumber-births-by-2060s.md" audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/australia-forecasts-deaths-to-outnumber-births-by-2060s" category: "Politics" published: "2026-09-21T03:45:48.789Z" source_reported: "2026-09-21T03:22:05.000Z" updated: "2026-09-21T03:45:48.789Z" trust_score: 60 critic_score: 70 hype_score: 20 assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis" fact_check_status: "not-performed" coverage_measured: "2026-09-21T03:45:26.595671+00:00" --- # Australia forecasts deaths to outnumber births by 2060s *Treasury report projects slower population growth due to declining fertility and migration.* **Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): - Trust 60 of 100, higher is better. Two full reports and multiple digests corroborate the central claims about Australia's demographic forecast. - Craft 70 of 100, higher is better. Reports clearly separate facts from comment and provide specific details about the demographic forecast. - Hype 20 of 100, lower is better. Headlines and content are measured and proportionate to the substance of the demographic forecast. Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology. **The short version** - Australia's Treasury department has published an Intergenerational Report forecasting demographic shifts over the next four decades. - The report projects deaths will outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s, leading to slower population growth. - An ageing population is expected to triple the number of Australians over 85 by 2066, increasing demand on health services. - The government has recently tightened immigration rules amid concerns about political pressure for reduced immigration. Australia's Treasury department has published an Intergenerational Report forecasting demographic shifts over the next four decades. The report projects that deaths will outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s. Population growth is expected to slow to 0.9% annually due to declining fertility rates and falling net overseas migration. The number of Australians over 85 is projected to triple by 2066, increasing demand on health services. The report identifies artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, an ageing population, and a shift to a service-based economy as five consequential transformations facing the country's economic outlook. The government has tightened immigration rules amid concerns about a surge in support for parties advocating for reduced immigration. ## Disagreement on report details Free Malaysia Today and Channel News Asia reported that the Intergenerational Report flagged tax cuts in future budgets as the government provides cost-of-living relief. Neither thairath.co.th, The Straits Times, BizToc, WTVB, nor Market Screener mentioned tax cuts in their digests. ## What the coverage left out None of the left-rated reports mentioned the story. The right-rated digests from thairath.co.th, The Straits Times, and BizToc did not mention the projected tripling of Australians over 85 by 2066, a detail included in the centre-rated reports and Free Malaysia Today's full report. ## Who covered it Shares of the 7 covering outlets with a published leaning rating: - Left: 0% (0) - Centre: 57% (4) - Right: 43% (3) 1 of 8 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-09-21T03:45:26.595671+00:00. **Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 2 times; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-09-21T04:15:27.766Z. ## How the sides framed it ### Left No separate framing summary. ### Centre - Centre-rated reports from Channel News Asia, WTVB, and Market Screener led on the forecast that deaths will exceed births for the first time in the 2060s. These reports also highlighted the projected tripling of Australians over 85 by 2066 and the resulting increased demand on health services. They noted the government's tightening of immigration rules in response to political pressure. Free Malaysia Today, also rated centre, included these points and additionally mentioned that the report flagged tax cuts in future budgets as the government provides cost-of-living relief. ### Right - Right-rated reports from Free Malaysia Today, thairath.co.th, and The Straits Times led on the warning of risks from an ageing population and falling birth rates. These reports highlighted the projection that deaths will surpass births for the first time in the 2060s and the slowing population growth. Free Malaysia Today and The Straits Times noted the government's tightening of immigration rules, with Free Malaysia Today specifying this was to counter support for parties advocating reduced immigration. Free Malaysia Today also reported that the Intergenerational Report flagged tax cuts in future budgets. **Provisional coverage gap:** left. The watch is not closed, so this is not yet a settled blindspot finding. ## Factuality profile of the covering outlets These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true. - mixed: 2 - high: 3 - unknown: 1 - veryHigh: 2 ## Verification scope This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true. ## Original reporting this was written from - [thairath.co.th](https://thairath.co.th/news/foreign/2960928) — Australia Warns of an Aging Population Crisis, with Deaths Poised to Surpass Births for the First Time in the 2060s. - [Free Malaysia Today News](https://freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2026/09/21/australia-warns-of-risks-from-ageing-population-falling-birth-rates) — Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates - [Channel News Asia](https://channelnewsasia.com/world/australia-ageing-population-falling-birth-rate-6398581) — Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates - [The Straits Times](https://straitstimes.com/asia/australia-warns-of-risks-from-ageing-population-falling-birth-rates) — Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates - [BizToc](https://biztoc.com/x/e14ad0c67ce5352f) — Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates - [WTVB](https://wtvbam.com/2026/09/20/australia-warns-of-risks-from-ageing-population-falling-birth-rates) — Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates - [Market Screener](https://marketscreener.com/news/australia-warns-of-risks-from-ageing-population-falling-birth-rates-ce785adbd98bf425) — Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates - [Reuters](https://reuters.com/business/media-telecom/australia-warns-risks-ageing-population-falling-birth-rates-2026-09-21) — Australia warns of risks from ageing population, falling birth rates ## Questions **When will deaths outnumber births in Australia?** Australia's Treasury department forecasts that deaths will outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s. This demographic shift is a key finding of the Intergenerational Report, which projects slower population growth due to declining fertility and migration. **What are the main concerns highlighted in the report?** The report highlights an ageing population, with the number of Australians over 85 projected to triple by 2066, increasing demand on health services. It also forecasts slower population growth due to declining birth rates and net overseas migration. **Has the Australian government changed immigration rules?** Yes, the government has tightened immigration rules. This action was taken as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks to counter a rise in support for parties advocating for reduced immigration, a factor contributing to the slowing net overseas migration. --- MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/politics/australia-forecasts-deaths-to-outnumber-births-by-2060s. 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