--- title: "Bobby Pulido leads Monica De La Cruz in Texas 15th District poll" publication: "MediaBias News" url: "https://mediabias.news/politics/bobby-pulido-leads-monica-de-la-cruz-in-texas-15th-district-poll" api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/bobby-pulido-leads-monica-de-la-cruz-in-texas-15th-district-poll" markdown: "https://mediabias.news/politics/bobby-pulido-leads-monica-de-la-cruz-in-texas-15th-district-poll.md" audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/bobby-pulido-leads-monica-de-la-cruz-in-texas-15th-district-poll" category: "Politics" area: "United States" published: "2026-08-04T20:05:33.613Z" source_reported: "2026-08-04T15:57:25.000Z" updated: "2026-08-04T20:05:33.613Z" trust_score: 55 critic_score: 65 hype_score: 35 assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis" fact_check_status: "not-performed" --- # Bobby Pulido leads Monica De La Cruz in Texas 15th District poll *A House Majority PAC-sponsored survey shows the Democrat ahead 51% to 45% in a district Trump carried by 18 points* **Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): - Trust 55 of 100, higher is better. Single outlet with named sources and documents, no independent corroboration. - Craft 65 of 100, higher is better. Quotes campaigns, cites polls and prediction markets, explains methodology. - Hype 35 of 100, lower is better. Headline overstates certainty; body tempers with caveats. Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology. **The short version** - A House Majority PAC poll shows Democrat Bobby Pulido leading Republican Monica De La Cruz 51% to 45% in Texas’ 15th Congressional District, a district Donald Trump carried by nearly 18 points in 2024. - The poll was conducted by Normington Petts and Associates from 23-28 July 2026 among 500 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%. - Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on 30 July 2026, citing Democratic momentum but still favouring De La Cruz. - Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show Pulido with 67% and De La Cruz with 30-41% in the TX-15 race. Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz 51% to 45% in a new poll of Texas’ 15th Congressional District, according to a survey sponsored by House Majority PAC and conducted by Normington Petts and Associates. The poll, shared with Newsweek on 4 August 2026, sampled 500 likely voters from 23-28 July 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%. The district, redrawn in 2025, was carried by Donald Trump by nearly 18 points in the 2024 presidential election. De La Cruz first won the seat in 2022, becoming the first Republican to represent it since its creation in 1901. She defeated Democrat Michelle Vallejo again in 2024, securing 57.1% of the vote to Vallejo’s 42.9%. A previous poll conducted by WelcomePAC from 18-25 May 2026 also showed Pulido ahead, 48% to 46%, among 802 likely voters. That survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1%, found Pulido had 73% name identification and a net favorability rating of plus eight. Only 36% of voters said De La Cruz deserved reelection, including 8% of self-identified independents. Prediction markets have also shifted toward Pulido. At the time of writing, Kalshi’s TX-15 market listed Pulido at 67% and De La Cruz at 41%, while Polymarket showed Pulido at 67% and De La Cruz at 30%. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on 30 July 2026, noting that the district, though still favouring Republicans, had become a credible Democratic target. ## What the coverage left out No left- or right-rated outlet ran this story at all. The only report published was from Newsweek, rated centre. **Coverage watch:** unwatched. Checked 0 times; 0 checks found a material change. ## How the sides framed it ### Left No separate framing summary. ### Centre - Newsweek led its report with the House Majority PAC poll showing Pulido ahead 51% to 45%. The article framed the race as a test of whether Republican gains with Latino voters in South Texas could hold in a midterm environment less favourable to the GOP. It included the poll’s methodology, the previous WelcomePAC survey, prediction market data, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s rating change. - Newsweek quoted Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s analysis directly: “a district Trump won by nearly 20 points ‘increasingly looks like a very real Democratic target.’” The report also noted that forecasters had not declared Pulido the favourite, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball maintaining a Leans Republican rating. It described the district’s history, De La Cruz’s 2022 and 2024 victories, and the impact of redistricting. ### Right No separate framing summary. ## Verification scope This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true. ## Original reporting this was written from - [Newsweek](https://newsweek.com/democrats-flip-texas-house-seat-trump-won-12280819) — Democrats favored to flip Texas House seat Trump won by 18 points ## Questions **What does the new poll show in Texas’ 15th Congressional District?** The House Majority PAC-sponsored poll shows Democrat Bobby Pulido leading Republican Monica De La Cruz 51% to 45%. The survey was conducted from 23-28 July 2026 among 500 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%. The district was carried by Donald Trump by nearly 18 points in 2024. **Why is this race significant?** Texas’ 15th Congressional District tests whether Republican gains with Latino voters in South Texas can hold in a midterm environment less favourable to the GOP. The seat is part of a broader Texas battlefield that Democrats hope could help them flip the House and build momentum in the state’s Senate race. **What do prediction markets say about the race?** Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show Pulido with 67% and De La Cruz with 30-41% in the TX-15 race. These markets reflect perceived momentum but can be influenced by trading volume and news cycles. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on 30 July 2026. **Which outlets reported on this story?** Only Newsweek, rated centre, published a full report on the poll. No left- or right-rated outlet ran the story at all, according to the material provided. --- MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/politics/bobby-pulido-leads-monica-de-la-cruz-in-texas-15th-district-poll. Please cite as: MediaBias News, "Bobby Pulido leads Monica De La Cruz in Texas 15th District poll", https://mediabias.news/politics/bobby-pulido-leads-monica-de-la-cruz-in-texas-15th-district-poll