---
title: "Collins leads Jackson by 3 points in Maine Senate race poll"
publication: "MediaBias News"
url: "https://mediabias.news/politics/collins-leads-jackson-by-3-points-in-maine-senate-race-poll"
api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/collins-leads-jackson-by-3-points-in-maine-senate-race-poll"
markdown: "https://mediabias.news/politics/collins-leads-jackson-by-3-points-in-maine-senate-race-poll.md"
audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/collins-leads-jackson-by-3-points-in-maine-senate-race-poll"
category: "Politics"
area: "United States"
published: "2026-09-24T16:05:27.555Z"
source_reported: "2026-09-24T15:31:00.000Z"
updated: "2026-09-24T16:05:27.555Z"
trust_score: 42
critic_score: 57
hype_score: 41
assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis"
fact_check_status: "not-performed"
coverage_measured: "2026-09-24T20:15:23.968Z"
---

# Collins leads Jackson by 3 points in Maine Senate race poll

*New York Times/Siena survey shows Republican ahead within margin of error*

**Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): 

- Trust 42 of 100, higher is better. The central claim is attributed to a named body, and two independent outlets published full reports.
- Craft 57 of 100, higher is better. The reporting includes quotes from affected voters and names specific dates and places.
- Hype 41 of 100, lower is better. Headlines promise a brutal poll and panic, but the article details a close race within the margin of error.

Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology.

**The short version**

- Republican Susan Collins leads Democrat Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in a new poll of the Maine Senate race.
- The poll of 619 likely voters was conducted by the New York Times, Portland Press Herald, and Siena College from September 15-22.
- Collins' 3-point lead is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
- The survey was conducted largely before reports emerged of an abandoned FBI investigation connected to Collins.

Republican Senator Susan Collins holds a 3-percentage-point lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in the Maine Senate race, according to a poll conducted by the New York Times, Portland Press Herald, and Siena College. The survey of 619 likely voters, taken between September 15 and 22, found Collins with 49% support compared to Jackson's 46%. Five percent of respondents remained undecided.

The race remains highly competitive, as Collins' advantage falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The poll was conducted largely before reports surfaced regarding an abandoned FBI investigation connected to Collins and other lawmakers. Collins' office has denied any wrongdoing, and the FBI previously stated its investigation found nothing implicating Collins or her campaign.

## Disagreement on voter breakdown

Reports differ on the breakdown of support among specific voter groups. Newsweek stated Collins received support from 8% of Democrats and was tied with Jackson at 47% among unenrolled and other voters. WLTReport also reported Collins received 8% of Democrats' support and was tied with Jackson at 47% among independents, but added that Jackson received only 3% of Republicans' support and that roughly 12% of voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 planned to vote for Collins.

## What the coverage left out

None of the right-rated digests mention the specific finding that Collins received support from 8% of Democrats, a detail included in the centre-rated reports. The left-rated digest did not include the specific breakdown of support among Democrats or unenrolled voters.

## Who covered it

Shares of the 21 covering outlets with a published leaning rating:

- Left: 10% (2)
- Centre: 38% (8)
- Right: 52% (11)

3 of 24 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-09-24T20:15:23.968Z.

**Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 2 times; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-09-24T20:31:09.704Z.

## How the sides framed it

### Left

- The Bangor Daily News digest reported that U.S. Sen. Susan Collins led Democrat Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in a new New York Times poll, her strongest showing yet. The digest also noted that President Trump's approval rating in Maine had slid to 32% among likely voters in the same poll.

### Centre

- The centre-rated reports focused on the New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll showing Republican Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson by 3 percentage points, 49% to 46%. Newsweek noted that Collins had opened her first lead over Jackson in an independent poll since Jackson became the Democratic nominee. It also highlighted that Collins received support from 8% of Democrats and was tied with Jackson at 47% among unenrolled and other voters. The Economist and the Portland Press Herald digests highlighted that the poll could signal the direction of the Senate majority and that the survey underscored Maine's "finicky electorate."

### Right

- Right-rated reports highlighted the New York Times/Siena poll showing Republican Sen. Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson by 49% to 46%. WLTReport described the poll as "brutal" for Democrats in a "must-win" Senate race and noted that Collins' 3-point advantage was within the poll's margin of error. The outlet also reported that Jackson was only getting 34% of voters without a college degree, a group central to his campaign message. Fox News reported that Collins was defying "blue-state headwinds" and that the poll revealed a "striking split" in the race. TrendingPolitics stated that Democrats were panicking over the polling results in a crucial pickup opportunity.

**Provisional coverage gap:** left. The watch is not closed, so this is not yet a settled blindspot finding.

## Factuality profile of the covering outlets

These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true.

- veryLow: 1
- low: 6
- mixed: 4
- high: 7
- unknown: 3
- veryHigh: 3

## Verification scope

This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true.

## Original reporting this was written from

- [DeFi Rate](https://defirate.com/news/kalshi-traders-trim-jacksons-edge-after-poll-puts-collins-back-in-front-in-maine) — Kalshi Traders Trim Jackson’s Edge After Poll Puts Collins Back in Front in Maine
- [INTELLINEWS](https://intelli.news/2026/09/24/susan-collins-defies-blue-state-headwinds-in-crucial-senate-battle-as-new-poll-reveals-striking-split) — Susan Collins defies blue-state headwinds in crucial Senate battle as new poll reveals striking split
- [The New York Ledger](https://thenyledger.com/politics/susan-collins-defies-blue-state-headwinds-in-crucial-senate-battle-as-new-poll-reveals-striking-split) — Susan Collins defies blue-state headwinds in crucial Senate battle as new poll reveals striking split
- [nytimespost.com](https://nytimespost.com/susan-collins-defies-blue-state-headwinds-in-crucial-senate-battle-as-new-poll-reveals-striking-split) — Susan Collins defies blue-state headwinds in crucial Senate battle as new poll reveals striking split - NEW YORK TIMES POST
- [democraticaccent.com](https://democraticaccent.com/susan-collins-defies-blue-state-headwinds-in-crucial-senate-battle-as-new-poll-reveals-striking-split) — Susan Collins defies blue-state headwinds in crucial Senate battle as new poll reveals striking split – Democratic Accent
- [wfmd.com](https://wfmd.com/2026/09/24/susan-collins-defies-blue-state-headwinds-in-crucial-senate-battle-as-new-poll-reveals-striking-split) — Susan Collins defies blue-state headwinds in crucial Senate battle as new poll reveals striking split
- [Fox News](https://foxnews.com/politics/susan-collins-defies-blue-state-headwinds-crucial-senate-battle-new-poll-reveals-striking-split) — Susan Collins defies blue-state headwinds in crucial Senate battle as new poll reveals striking split
- [100% FED UP!](https://100percentfedup.com/just-democrats-hit-brutal-new-poll-must-win) — JUST IN: Democrats Hit With Brutal New Poll In Must-Win Senate Race – 100PercentFedUp.com – by Jack
- [Washington Examiner](https://washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4740975/democrats-uphill-battle-maine-senate-race-gaining-other-battlegrounds) — Democrats face uphill battle in Maine while gaining in other battlegrounds: Poll
- [The Economist](https://economist.com/united-states/2026/09/24/as-goes-maine-so-goes-the-senate) — As goes Maine, so goes the Senate
- [TrendingPolitics](https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/just-in-dems-panic-as-brutal-polling-emerges-in-must-win-senate-races-jrupp) — JUST IN: Dems Panic As Brutal Polling Emerges In Must-Win Senate Race
- [News Addicts](https://newsaddicts.com/democratic-concerns-rise-amidst-disconcerting-senate-polls) — Democratic Concerns Rise Amidst Disconcerting Senate Polls
- [Bangor Daily News](https://bangordailynews.com/2026/09/24/politics/elections/maine-election-senate-2026-susan-collins-poll-lead-nyt) — Susan Collins leads Troy Jackson in new poll even as Trump's Maine approval slides
- [news-pravda.com](https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/09/24/2617301.html) — NOW: NEW MAINE US SENATE poll
- [Maine Public](https://mainepublic.org/politics/2026-09-24/poll-susan-collins-holds-slight-edge-over-troy-jackson-in-maines-senate-race) — Poll: Susan Collins holds slight edge over Troy Jackson in Maine's Senate race
- [National Review](https://nationalreview.com/corner/susan-collins-is-defying-the-headwinds) — Susan Collins Is Defying the Headwinds
- [Newsweek](https://newsweek.com/susan-collins-troy-jackson-maine-senate-race-poll-12482806) — Susan Collins opens first lead over Troy Jackson in Maine Senate race
- [WLTReport](https://wltreport.com/2026/09/24/democrats-brutal-poll-maine-senate-race-collins-jackson) — JUST IN: Democrats Hit With Brutal New Poll In Must-Win Senate Race
- [Political Wire](https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/24/susan-collins-leads-in-maine-senate-race) — Susan Collins Leads in Maine Senate Race
- [Cryptocurrency News | Cryptocurrency Prices | Market Cap](https://cryptocurrency.com.tr/susan-collins-leads-in-maine-senate-race-nyt-poll-shows-389111) — Susan Collins leads in Maine Senate race, NYT poll shows
- [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/susan-collins-leads-in-maine-senate-race-nyt-poll-shows) — Susan Collins leads in Maine Senate race, NYT poll shows
- [Portland Press Herald](https://pressherald.com/?p=7728321) — 5 takeaways from the new NYT/Press Herald/Siena poll
- [Central Maine News](https://centralmaine.com/2026/09/24/5-takeaways-from-the-new-nyt-press-herald-siena-poll) — 5 takeaways from the new NYT/Press Herald/Siena poll
- [Lewiston Sun Journal](https://sunjournal.com/2026/09/24/5-takeaways-from-the-new-nyt-press-herald-siena-poll) — 5 takeaways from the new NYT/Press Herald/Siena poll

## Questions

**Who is leading in the Maine Senate race poll?**

According to a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll, Republican Susan Collins is leading Democrat Troy Jackson by 3 percentage points, with 49% support to Jackson's 46%. This lead falls within the poll's margin of error.

**When was the poll conducted?**

The poll surveyed 619 likely voters from September 15 to September 22. This timing means it was conducted largely before reports emerged of an abandoned FBI investigation connected to Senator Collins.

**What is the margin of error for the poll?**

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means the actual support for each candidate could be slightly higher or lower than the reported figures, indicating a close race.

---

MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/politics/collins-leads-jackson-by-3-points-in-maine-senate-race-poll. Please cite as: MediaBias News, "Collins leads Jackson by 3 points in Maine Senate race poll", https://mediabias.news/politics/collins-leads-jackson-by-3-points-in-maine-senate-race-poll