--- title: "Farage sets Reform UK talks condition as party slips to third in polls" publication: "MediaBias News" url: "https://mediabias.news/politics/farage-sets-reform-uk-talks-condition-as-party-slips-to-third-in-polls" api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/farage-sets-reform-uk-talks-condition-as-party-slips-to-third-in-polls" markdown: "https://mediabias.news/politics/farage-sets-reform-uk-talks-condition-as-party-slips-to-third-in-polls.md" audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/farage-sets-reform-uk-talks-condition-as-party-slips-to-third-in-polls" category: "Politics" area: "United Kingdom" published: "2026-08-11T08:05:44.475Z" source_reported: "2026-08-11T07:02:41.000Z" updated: "2026-08-11T08:30:32.555Z" trust_score: 74 critic_score: 68 hype_score: 32 assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis" fact_check_status: "not-performed" coverage_measured: "2026-08-11T08:59:53.076Z" --- # Farage sets Reform UK talks condition as party slips to third in polls *Reform UK falls behind Labour and Conservatives in Lord Ashcroft survey while Farage demands ally’s expulsion* **Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): - Trust 74 of 100, higher is better. Two full reports and nine digests corroborate key facts. - Craft 68 of 100, higher is better. Most outlets lack direct quotes or specific figures. - Hype 32 of 100, lower is better. Some headlines emphasize poll results. Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology. **The short version** - Reform UK has fallen to third place in a Lord Ashcroft poll, with 18% support, behind Labour (27%) and the Conservatives (23%). - Nigel Farage said he will not enter talks with Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain unless Lowe expels co-founder Charlie Downes, who has faced accusations of antisemitism. - Lowe has already rejected the demand, calling it unreasonable to sack Downes, who is expecting a child. - Farage also announced plans to deport foreign prisoners to El Salvador, Kosovo, Estonia or Lithuania to free up UK prison space. Reform UK has slipped to third place in a new opinion poll, with 18% support, behind Labour on 27% and the Conservatives on 23%. The survey, conducted by Lord Ashcroft between 30 July and 3 August 2026, showed the Greens close behind Reform on 15%. The poll was published as Nigel Farage ruled out talks with Rupert Lowe, leader of the rival right-wing party Restore Britain, unless Lowe expels co-founder Charlie Downes. Farage said at a press conference in Westminster that Downes and other figures in Restore Britain’s orbit had made statements he described as unacceptable. He referred to Downes’ recent remarks, which campaigners against antisemitism said perpetuated an antisemitic trope, and to a Restore Britain backer who has advocated for the removal of all Jews from the UK. Lowe has previously said the backer, Steve Laws, has no role in the party’s decision-making but is welcome to support it. Lowe rejected Farage’s demand in a post on X, writing that expelling Downes would mean putting a young man out of work as he prepares to start a family. Lowe had earlier offered to set aside past disagreements with Farage to work together, but set conditions including the exclusion of Conservative defectors from a future Reform cabinet. Farage also used the press conference to announce plans to deport foreign prisoners to countries including El Salvador, a policy Reform said would free up 10,000 UK prison spaces. The Lord Ashcroft poll projected Labour would win 309 seats if an election were held now, 17 short of a majority, with the Conservatives on 192 and Reform on 31. The National reported this projection. A separate Ipsos poll, conducted over a similar period, put Labour on 28%, Reform on 25% and the Conservatives on 18%, projecting Labour would win 292 seats, Reform 180 and the Conservatives 57. The National carried both projections. All six left-rated digests led on Reform UK’s drop to third place in the Lord Ashcroft poll. Politico Europe’s full report focused on Farage’s demand that Lowe expel Downes, quoting Farage’s statement that Reform members and voters would be “utterly shocked” if he met with Downes. The report also detailed Farage’s reference to a Restore Britain backer advocating the removal of all Jews from the UK. The New Statesman’s digest described the difficulty of uniting the radical right, while The Canary’s digest highlighted Reform’s declining polling as part of a longer trend. The National’s full report led on Reform UK’s third-place position in the Lord Ashcroft poll, noting Labour’s nine-point lead and the Greens’ close fourth place. It included both the Lord Ashcroft and Ipsos seat projections, which differed on whether Reform or the Conservatives would be the second-largest party. The report quoted Lord Ashcroft’s comment that the “Burnham Bounce” was real but cautioned that voters were waiting for the new prime minister’s next move. All three right-rated digests led on Reform UK’s polling slump. The Daily Express’s digest focused on Farage’s announcement of plans to deport foreign prisoners, with its Whitehall editor present at the press conference. GB News’s digest described the poll as a “bombshell” and noted Reform’s support had fallen to its lowest level since the 2024 general election. The Jewish Chronicle’s digest reported calls for the Conservatives to end an arrangement giving Rupert Lowe a seat on a Commons committee, despite controversy over Downes’ comments. None of the right-rated digests mentioned Farage’s demand that Lowe expel Charlie Downes as a condition for talks. None of the centre-rated or right-rated digests reported Farage’s reference to a Restore Britain backer advocating the removal of all Jews from the UK. The cost of Reform’s prison deportation plan was not mentioned in any of the digests or reports. ## Who covered it Shares of the 11 covering outlets with a published leaning rating: - Left: 64% (7) - Centre: 0% (0) - Right: 36% (4) 1 of 12 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-08-11T08:59:53.076Z. **Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 5 times; 2 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-08-11T09:15:37.373Z. ## How the sides framed it ### Left - Left-rated outlets led on Reform UK’s fall to third place in recent polls. All seven reports carried the Lord Ashcroft survey showing the party at 18%, behind Labour on 27% and the Conservatives on 23%. Five digests and two full reports noted the trend of Labour’s polling rise since Andy Burnham became prime minister. - HuffPost UK and Politico Europe included Farage’s demand that Rupert Lowe expel a co-founder as a condition for merger talks. Both quoted Farage’s reference to figures he described as promoting antisemitic or extremist views. The Independent and The National’s digests omitted this detail. - HuffPost UK’s report named the £5 million undeclared gift from Christopher Harborne and the parliamentary standards investigation. None of the other left-rated digests or reports mentioned the financial controversy or the suspension risk Farage could face if found in breach. ### Centre No separate framing summary. ### Right - The two right-rated outlets led on Reform UK’s polling decline. Both carried the 18% figure from Lord Ashcroft’s survey and noted the party had fallen to third place behind Labour and the Conservatives. - GB News included Labour’s rise to 27% and the Conservatives’ position ahead of Reform. Neither digest mentioned Farage’s conditions for coalition talks or the timing of the poll’s fieldwork. - The Jewish Chronicle did not report the poll at all. Its digest focused on Conservative Party criticism of an arrangement giving a Reform-affiliated MP a Commons committee seat. **Provisional coverage gap:** right. The watch is not closed, so this is not yet a settled blindspot finding. ## Factuality profile of the covering outlets These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true. - mixed: 5 - high: 5 - unknown: 2 ## Verification scope This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true. ## Original reporting this was written from - [Guido Fawkes](https://order-order.com/2026/08/11/yougov-labour-overtakes-reform-for-first-time-in-18-months) — YOUGOV: Labour Overtakes Reform for First Time in 18 Months - [HuffPost UK](https://huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/reform-uk-slump-third-place-poll-blow-for-farage_uk_6a7ac36ee4b0ecad6d3c63fc) — Reform UK Slump To Third Place Behind Labour And Tories In Latest Poll Blow For Farage - [The Jewish Chronicle](https://thejc.com/news/politics/tories-must-end-arrangement-giving-restores-rupert-lowe-seat-on-top-commons-committee-ltngwsau) — Tories ‘must end arrangement’ giving Restore’s Rupert Lowe seat on top Commons committee - [Daily Express](https://express.co.uk/news/politics/2237779/nigel-farage-just-showed-us) — I was in room when Farage announced bombshell new policy - 1 thing convinced me - [Politico Europe](https://politico.eu/article/hopes-for-uniting-british-right-hit-the-rocks-as-nigel-farage-demands-sacking-of-rupert-lowe-aide-reform-uk-restore-britain) — Farage demands sacking of Lowe aide as price of Reform-Restore talks - [The Independent](https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/clacton-byelection-poll-nigel-farage-reform-labour-count-binface-b3030422.html) — Labour leads Reform in another poll days before Farage’s crunch Clacton by-election - [The National](https://thenational.scot/news/26450218.nigel-farages-reform-uk-slump-third-major-new-westminster-poll) — Reform UK slump to third with Greens close behind, major new Westminster poll finds - [The Canary](https://thecanary.co/trending/2026/08/10/reforms-polling) — Reform’s polling continues to nosedive - [MASSIVE.NEWS](https://massive.news/live-nigel-farage-and-zia-yusuf-hold-reform-uk-press-conference-drm-news-ac1f) — Nigel Farage And Zia Yusuf Hold Reform UK Press Conference - [New Statesman](https://newstatesman.com/politics/2026/08/restore-voters-cant-stomach-nigel-farage) — Restore voters can't stomach Nigel Farage - [GB News](https://gbnews.com/politics/nigel-farage-reform-labour-tories-poll-lord-ashcroft) — Nigel Farage's Reform drops to third in bombshell poll as Labour and Tories storm ahead - [The London Economic](https://thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-latest-polling-2026-data-third-place-408621) — Bottling it? Reform face prospect of dropping to THIRD in the polls ## Questions **What did the latest poll show about Reform UK’s support?** The Lord Ashcroft poll showed Reform UK in third place with 18% support, behind Labour on 27% and the Conservatives on 23%. This is a drop from previous polls and puts the Greens close behind on 15%. The poll was conducted between 30 July and 3 August 2026. **What condition did Nigel Farage set for talks with Rupert Lowe?** Nigel Farage said he would not enter talks with Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain unless Lowe expels co-founder Charlie Downes. Farage cited Downes’ recent remarks, which have been accused of perpetuating an antisemitic trope, as unacceptable for Reform members and voters. **How did the polls project seat numbers for a general election?** The Lord Ashcroft poll projected Labour would win 309 seats, 17 short of a majority, with the Conservatives on 192 and Reform on 31. A separate Ipsos poll projected Labour on 292 seats, Reform on 180 and the Conservatives on 57. The projections differed on which party would be second-largest. **What did Farage announce about foreign prisoners?** Farage announced plans to deport foreign prisoners to countries including El Salvador, Kosovo, Estonia or Lithuania to free up 10,000 spaces in UK prisons. Reform UK said the policy would apply to convicted prisoners, though nearly a third of foreign nationals in detention are on remand and awaiting trial. --- MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/politics/farage-sets-reform-uk-talks-condition-as-party-slips-to-third-in-polls. Please cite as: MediaBias News, "Farage sets Reform UK talks condition as party slips to third in polls", https://mediabias.news/politics/farage-sets-reform-uk-talks-condition-as-party-slips-to-third-in-polls