---
title: "Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October Election"
publication: "MediaBias News"
url: "https://mediabias.news/politics/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election"
api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election"
markdown: "https://mediabias.news/politics/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election.md"
audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election"
category: "Politics"
area: "Latin America"
published: "2026-08-15T21:25:33.737Z"
source_reported: "2026-08-15T19:42:03.000Z"
updated: "2026-08-15T21:25:33.737Z"
trust_score: 74
critic_score: 95
hype_score: 15
assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis"
fact_check_status: "not-performed"
coverage_measured: "2026-08-15T22:30:13.461065+00:00"
---

# Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October Election

*A Quaest survey shows the gap narrowing between the incumbent president and his right-wing challenger, with both facing high rejection rates.*

**Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): 

- Trust 74 of 100, higher is better. Trust 74: poll data cited, figures sourced to Quaest, multiple independent reports, specific dates and margin of error given.
- Craft 95 of 100, higher is better. Critic 95: explains poll significance, includes Lula quote, separates facts, provides specific figures and next steps clearly.
- Hype 15 of 100, lower is better. Hype 15: language measured, no clickbait, headlines match article content.

Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology.

**The short version**

- A Quaest poll released on 14 August shows Lula leading Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated runoff, within the two-point margin of error.
- The gap has narrowed from a five-point lead for Lula in an earlier poll on 5 August.
- Bolsonaro’s rejection rate stands at 54%, two points higher than Lula’s 52%.
- The first round of Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for 4 October.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by three percentage points in a simulated runoff for the October presidential election, according to a Quaest poll released on 14 August. The survey, conducted between 10 and 13 August, shows Lula at 43% and Bolsonaro at 40%, a result the pollster describes as a statistical tie given its two-point margin of error.

The gap has narrowed since an earlier Quaest poll on 5 August, which had Lula at 44% and Bolsonaro at 39%. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38%, while Bolsonaro polls at 31%. Three other candidates trail far behind: Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado at 4% each, and Romeu Zema at 2%.

Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is running as the right-wing candidate after his father was barred from the race. The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible by Brazil’s top electoral court for abusing his power while in office and was later convicted over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

The poll also measured rejection rates: 54% of voters said they would not vote for Bolsonaro, while 52% said the same of Lula. The survey sampled 2,004 voters and was commissioned by the Brazilian media group Globo.

## What the coverage left out

None of the right-rated digests mention the rejection rates for either candidate. None of the centre-rated digests report the first-round polling figures or the rejection rates. The left-rated reports are the only ones to carry Lula’s remarks about foreign interference in Brazil’s elections.

## Who covered it

Shares of the 19 covering outlets with a published leaning rating:

- Left: 16% (3)
- Centre: 31% (6)
- Right: 53% (10)

10 of 29 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-08-15T22:30:13.461065+00:00.

**Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 9 times; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-08-15T23:30:07.512Z.

## How the sides framed it

### Left

- The left-rated reports led on Lula’s narrow lead and the high rejection rates for both candidates. Al Jazeera’s full report described the race as a "statistical tie" and noted that Bolsonaro’s rejection rate exceeds Lula’s. It also quoted Lula’s remarks at his re-election launch, where he warned against foreign interference in Brazil’s mineral wealth and elections, singling out the US, China and France.
- MercoPress’s digest highlighted the rejection rates, reporting that Bolsonaro’s 54% rejection rate is two points higher than Lula’s. CartaCapital’s digest noted the technical tie in the second-round scenario and specified the poll’s sample size and margin of error.

### Centre

- The centre-rated digests focused on the narrowing gap between the two candidates. Devdiscourse’s full report described the race as "tightening" and noted the slight decrease in Lula’s lead from the earlier poll. It did not mention the rejection rates or the first-round scenario.
- Investing.com, Bloomberg, WTVB, The Mighty 790 KFGO and other centre-rated digests all led with the narrowing lead, using phrasing such as "Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows". None of the centre-rated digests mentioned the candidates’ rejection rates or the first-round polling figures.

### Right

- The right-rated digests uniformly described the race as a "technical tie" or "statistical tie". Anadolu Ajansı, Globo, The Star Kuala Lumpur, The Straits Times and eight other right-rated digests all led with Bolsonaro’s gains, using phrases like "narrow lead" or "technical tie".
- Clarín’s digest described the race as starting "with a technical tie", while Globo’s digest explicitly stated that the candidates are "technically tied within the margin of error". None of the right-rated digests mentioned the candidates’ rejection rates or the first-round polling figures.

**Provisional coverage gap:** left. The watch is not closed, so this is not yet a settled blindspot finding.

## Factuality profile of the covering outlets

These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true.

- mixed: 5
- high: 11
- unknown: 11
- veryHigh: 2

## Verification scope

This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true.

## Original reporting this was written from

- [resumenlatinoamericano.org](https://resumenlatinoamericano.org/2026/08/15/brasil-lula-encabeza-preferencia-electoral-y-supera-a-flavio-bolsonaro) — Brazil. Lula Leads Electoral Preference and Surpasses Flávio Bolsonaro - Latin American Summary
- [Clarin](https://clarin.com/mundo/campana-electoral-arranca-brasil-empate-tecnico-lula-da-silva-flavio-bolsonaro_0_bWFzGjxwrT.html) — The Electoral Campaign Starts in Brazil with a Technical Tie Between Lula Da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro
- [Investing.com](https://investing.com/news/world-news/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows-4861560) — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
- [noticiaslatam.lat](https://noticiaslatam.lat/20260815/lula-derrotaria-a-flavio-bolsonaro-en-las-presidenciales-de-brasil-segun-un-sondeo-1174684488.html) — Lula Would Defeat Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s Presidential Elections, According to a Poll
- [Revista Oeste](https://revistaoeste.com/politica/quaest-volta-a-mostrar-empate-tecnico-entre-lula-e-flavio-no-2o-turno) — Quaest Returns to Show Technical Tie Between Lula and Flavio in the Second Round
- [Yeni Şafak](https://en.yenisafak.com/world/lula-holds-slim-lead-over-bolsonaro-in-brazil-poll-3721934) — Lula holds slim lead over Bolsonaro in Brazil poll
- [anews.com.tr](https://anews.com.tr/asia/2026/08/15/lula-holds-narrow-lead-over-flavio-bolsonaro-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll) — Lula holds narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election: Poll
- [Anadolu Ajansı](https://aa.com.tr/en/americas/lula-holds-narrow-lead-over-flavio-bolsonaro-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll/4027951) — Lula holds narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election: Poll
- [The Star Kuala Lumpur](https://thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/08/15/lula039s-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows) — Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
- [Devdiscourse](https://devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3964148-lula-maintains-lead-as-brazilian-election-approaches) — Lula Maintains Lead as Brazilian Election Approaches
- [Merco Press](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/08/15/rejection-of-flavio-bolsonaro-exceeds-lula-s-despite-his-gains-in-voting-intention) — Rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro exceeds Lula's despite his gains in voting intention
- [Al Jazeera](https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/lula-holds-slim-lead-over-flavio-bolsonaro-ahead-of-brazil-election) — Lula holds slim lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election
- [N Digital](https://n.com.do/2026/08/14/bolsonaro-se-acerca-a-lula-en-intencion-de-voto-para-una-eventual-segunda-vuelta) — Bolsonaro Approaches Lula in Intent to Vote for a Possible Second Round
- [Metrópoles](https://metropoles.com/colunas/igor-gadelha/petistas-atribuem-mas-noticias-da-quaest-a-jaques-lulinha-e-marcola) — Petists Attribute Bad News From Quaest to Jaques, Lulina and Marcola
- [RPP](https://rpp.pe/mundo/latinoamerica/brasil-flavio-bolsonaro-vuelve-a-recortar-distancia-con-lula-da-silva-en-eventual-segunda-vuelta-segun-sondeo-noticia-1701651) — Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro Again Cut Distance with Lula Da Silva in Eventual Second Round, According to Poll
- [Reuters](https://reuters.com/world/americas/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-brazil-election-poll-shows-2026-08-14) — Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows ...
- [WTVB](https://wtvbam.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows) — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
- [Bloomberg](https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/lula-s-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-in-brazil-election-poll) — Lula’s Lead Over Bolsonaro Narrows in Brazil Election Poll
- [The Straits Times](https://straitstimes.com/world/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows) — Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
- [The Print](https://theprint.in/world/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows/3015470) — Just a moment…
- [Globo](https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2026/pesquisa-eleitoral/noticia/2026/08/14/quaest-presidente-2o-turno-14-agosto.ghtml) — Quaest, Second Round: Lula, 43%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 40%
- [SRN News](https://srnnews.com/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows) — Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
- [CNN Brasil](https://cnnbrasil.com.br/eleicoes/quaest-54-rejeitam-voto-em-flavio-52-em-lula-2) — Quaest: 54% Reject Vote in Flavius; 52% in Lula
- [La República](https://larepublica.co/globoeconomia/los-mercados-brasilenos-experimentan-una-dura-semana-debido-a-la-inquietud-electoral-4459210) — Brazilian Markets Experience a Tough Week Due to Electoral Unrest
- [CartaCapital](https://cartacapital.com.br/politica/quaest-indica-empate-tecnico-entre-lula-e-flavio-bolsonaro-no-2o-turno) — Quaest Indicates Technical Tie Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the Second Round
- [The Mighty 790 KFGO](https://kfgo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows) — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
- [WKZO](https://wkzo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows) — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
- [WTAQ](https://wtaq.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows) — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
- [KELO Newstalk 1320 107.9](https://kelo.com/2026/08/14/lulas-lead-over-bolsonaro-narrows-ahead-of-brazil-election-poll-shows) — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows

## Questions

**What does the latest poll show about Brazil’s presidential race?**

The Quaest poll released on 14 August shows Lula leading Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated runoff, within the two-point margin of error. This makes the race a statistical tie. The gap has narrowed from a five-point lead for Lula in an earlier poll on 5 August.

**What are the rejection rates for Lula and Bolsonaro?**

The Quaest poll indicates a rejection rate of 54% for Bolsonaro and 52% for Lula. This means over half of voters say they would not vote for either candidate. Only the left-rated reports carried these figures.

**Why is Flávio Bolsonaro running instead of his father?**

Jair Bolsonaro was barred from running after Brazil’s top electoral court ruled he had abused his power while in office. He was later convicted over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula. Flávio Bolsonaro is now the right-wing candidate.

**Which outlets reported on Lula’s warnings about foreign interference?**

Al Jazeera’s full report quoted Lula’s remarks at his re-election launch, where he warned against foreign interference in Brazil’s mineral wealth and elections. No other outlet in the reports below carried these remarks.

---

MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/politics/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election. Please cite as: MediaBias News, "Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October Election", https://mediabias.news/politics/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-three-points-in-brazil-poll-ahead-of-october-election