---
title: "Poll: Le Pen and Mélenchon projected for French presidential run-off"
publication: "MediaBias News"
url: "https://mediabias.news/politics/poll-le-pen-and-melenchon-projected-for-french-presidential-run-off"
api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/poll-le-pen-and-melenchon-projected-for-french-presidential-run-off"
markdown: "https://mediabias.news/politics/poll-le-pen-and-melenchon-projected-for-french-presidential-run-off.md"
audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/poll-le-pen-and-melenchon-projected-for-french-presidential-run-off"
category: "Politics"
published: "2026-09-28T11:05:16.871Z"
source_reported: "2026-09-28T10:34:37.000Z"
updated: "2026-09-28T11:05:16.871Z"
trust_score: 42
critic_score: 59
hype_score: 41
assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis"
fact_check_status: "not-performed"
coverage_measured: "2026-09-28T12:35:45.958Z"
---

# Poll: Le Pen and Mélenchon projected for French presidential run-off

*A new survey suggests both candidates could reach the second round in all five scenarios studied.*

**Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): 

- Trust 42 of 100, higher is better. The central claim is attributed to a poll, but the poll itself is not named in most digests, and only one outlet provided a full report.
- Craft 59 of 100, higher is better. Most outlets provided only digests, limiting the depth of reporting. Specific figures were often presented without clear attribution to the poll.
- Hype 41 of 100, lower is better. Headlines often emphasize a 'duel' or 'gap' without fully detailing the nuances of the poll's scenarios.

Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology.

**The short version**

- Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are projected to reach the second round of the 2027 French presidential election in all five scenarios examined by a new poll.
- Le Pen is projected to secure between 35% and 36% of the vote in the first round.
- Mélenchon is projected to receive between 15% and 18% of the vote in the first round.
- In a second-round scenario, Le Pen is projected to win with 57% of the vote against Édouard Philippe and 69% against Mélenchon.

A new poll suggests that Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are likely to qualify for the second round of the 2027 French presidential election. The survey, conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, indicates this outcome across all five scenarios it studied. The poll was published on 28 September 2026.

## First and second round projections

According to the Toluna Harris Interactive poll, Marine Le Pen is projected to receive between 35% and 36% of the vote in the first round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is projected to receive between 15% and 18% in the first round. In a hypothetical second-round contest against Édouard Philippe, Le Pen is projected to win with 57% of the vote. Against Jean-Luc Mélenchon in a second-round scenario, Le Pen is projected to win with 69% of the vote.

## What the coverage left out

None of the right-rated digests mention the specific scenarios studied in the poll, nor do they detail the first-round vote share for Jean-Luc Mélenchon beyond his projected qualification for the second round. The left-rated report does not specify the vote share for Édouard Philippe in the second-round scenarios.

## Who covered it

Shares of the 14 covering outlets with a published leaning rating:

- Left: 7% (1)
- Centre: 50% (7)
- Right: 43% (6)

28 of 42 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-09-28T12:35:45.958Z.

**Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 9 times; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-09-28T13:15:26.452Z.

## How the sides framed it

### Left

- The left-rated report from La Dépêche du Midi noted that Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon were projected to reach the second round in all five scenarios studied. It also mentioned Le Pen's projected first-round vote share of 35% to 36% and Mélenchon's of 15% to 17%. The report also included details about the Rassemblement national forming a parliamentary group in the Senate for the first time and discussed reactions to the senatorial elections.

### Centre

- Centre-rated reports highlighted that Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are projected to reach the run-off vote in the 2027 French presidential election. These reports stated that Le Pen is expected to win the second round with 57% of the vote against Édouard Philippe and 69% against Mélenchon. Several centre-rated outlets, including Reuters, WTVB, lindependant.fr, France24, leprogres.fr, Sud Ouest, and lejsl.com, focused on these second-round projections.

### Right

- Right-rated reports from outlets such as Iefimerida, Protothema, Cyprus Mail, politika.rs, and Le Figaro focused on Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon reaching the second round of the presidential election. These reports noted Le Pen's projected first-round vote share of 35% to 36% and Mélenchon's of 17% to 18%. They also highlighted Le Pen's projected second-round victories, stating she would win 57% against Édouard Philippe and 69% against Mélenchon.

**Provisional coverage gap:** left. The watch is not closed, so this is not yet a settled blindspot finding.

## Factuality profile of the covering outlets

These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true.

- mixed: 2
- high: 7
- unknown: 28
- veryHigh: 5

## Verification scope

This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true.

## Original reporting this was written from

- [CDE News](https://cde.news/far-right-le-pen-and-hard-left-melenchon-seen-reaching-french-presidential-run-off-poll-shows) — Far-right Le Pen and hard-left Melenchon seen reaching French presidential run-off, poll shows
- [CNN Greece](https://cnn.gr/kosmos/story/554389/monomaxia-lepen-melanson-sto-deytero-gyro-ton-proedrikon-eklogon-sti-gallia-vlepei-dimoskopisi) — Poll Predicts Le Pen-Mélenchon Duel in Second Round of French Presidential Election
- [parapolitika.gr](https://parapolitika.gr/diethni/article/1797934/gallia-i-akrodexia-lepen-kai-o-akroaristeros-melanson-ston-deutero-guroton-eklogon-kai-sta-pede-senaria-dimoskopisis) — France: Far-Right Le Pen and Far-Left Mélenchon in Second Round of Elections in All Five Poll Scenarios
- [Anatropi News](https://anatropinews.gr/2026/09/i-akrodexia-lepen-kai-o-akroaristeros-melanson-tha-fthasoun-sto-deftero-gyrio-ton-proedrikon-eklogon-symfona-me-dimoskopisi) — Le Pen and Mélenchon in the Second Round of the Presidential Election
- [flash.gr](https://flash.gr/gallia-ton-akron-dimoskopisi-vlepei-lepen-kai-melanson-ston-deytero-gyro-ton-eklogon-1083365) — France of... Extremes: Poll "Sees" Le Pen and Mélenchon in the Second Round of the Elections
- [Reporter.gr](https://reporter.gr/diethnh/diethneis-eidhseis/686707-gallia-nea-dimoskopisi-lepen-enantion-melanson-ston-v-gyro-ton-proedrikon-eklogon) — France - New Poll: Le Pen vs. Mélenchon in the Second Round of the Presidential Election
- [flight.com.gr](https://flight.com.gr/le-pen-and-melenchon-will-reach-the-second-round-of-the-presidential-election-according-to-a-poll) — Le Pen and Mélenchon Will Reach the Second Round of the Presidential Election, According to a Poll
- [zougla.gr](https://zougla.gr/kosmos/gallia-i-machi-ton-akron-gia-tis-proedrikes-ekloges) — France: The Battle of the Limbs for the Presidential Election
- [sofokleousin.gr](https://sofokleousin.gr/epikairotita/diethni/gallia-lepen-kai-melanson-sto-deytero-gyrio-ton-proedrikon-eklogo) — France: Le Pen and Mélenchon in Second Round of Presidential Election, Poll Shows
- [NewsBomb](https://newsbomb.gr/kosmos/story/1766449/gallia-dimoskopisi-deixnei-monomaxia-lepen-melanson-ston-v-gyro-ton-proedrikon-eklogon) — France: Poll Shows Le Pen - Mélenchon Duel in Second Round of Presidential Election
- [insider.gr](https://insider.gr/politiki/426458/gallia-lepen-kai-melanson-ston-deytero-gyro-ton-proedrikon-eklogon-symfona-me) — France: Le Pen and Mélenchon in Second Round of Presidential Election, According to Poll
- [Iefimerida](https://iefimerida.gr/kosmos/gallia-lepen-kai-melanson-se-deytero-gyro-eklogon) — France - Poll: Le Pen and Mélenchon Will Reach the Second Round of the Presidential Election - The Scenarios - iefimerida.gr
- [Quotidiano Nazionale](https://quotidiano.net/esteri/francia-marine-le-pen-vola-nei-sondaggi-il-centro-di-macron-sempre-piu-in-difficolta-ritorno-in-campo-di-hollande-42ba3d77) — France: Marine Le Pen Flies in the Polls, the Center of Macron More and More in Difficulty. Returning to Hollande's Field?
- [ΑΘΗΝΑ 9,84](https://athina984.gr/2026/09/28/gallia-lepen-kai-melanson-ston-v-039-gyro-ton-proedrikon-eklogon-deichnei-dimoskopisi) — France: Le Pen and Mélenchon in Second Round of Presidential Election, Poll Shows
- [Protothema](https://protothema.gr/world/article/1885908/gallia-lepen-kai-melanson-ston-v-guro-ton-proedrikon-eklogon-deihnei-nea-dimoskopisi) — France: Le Pen and Mélenchon in Second Round of Presidential Election, New Poll Shows
- [Cyprus Mail](https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/09/28/far-right-le-pen-and-hard-left-melenchon-seen-reaching-french-presidential-run-off-poll-shows) — Far-right Le Pen and hard-left Melenchon seen reaching French presidential run-off, poll shows
- [The Straits Times](https://straitstimes.com/world/europe/far-right-le-pen-and-hard-left-melenchon-seen-reaching-french-presidential-run-off-poll-shows) — Far-right Le Pen and hard-left Melenchon seen reaching French presidential run-off, poll shows
- [WTVB](https://wtvbam.com/2026/09/28/far-right-le-pen-and-hard-left-melenchon-seen-reaching-french-presidential-run-off-poll-shows) — Far-right Le Pen and hard-left Melenchon seen reaching French presidential run-off, poll shows
- [Reuters](https://reuters.com/world/far-right-le-pen-hard-left-melenchon-seen-reaching-french-presidential-run-off-2026-09-28) — Far-right Le Pen and hard-left Melenchon seen reaching French presidential run-off, poll shows
- [L'Opinion](https://lopinion.fr/politique/presidentielle-2027-un-second-tour-le-pen-melenchon-inevitable-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027 : a Second Round Le Pen-Mélenchon Inevitable, According to a Poll
- [politika.rs](https://politika.rs/scc/clanak/788977/anketa-u-francuskoj-le-pen-ubedljiva-u-drugom-krugu) — French Poll: Le Pen Wins Second Round
- [lindependant.fr](https://lindependant.fr/2026/09/28/presidentielle-2027-marine-le-pen-creuse-lecart-jean-luc-melenchon-toujours-deuxieme-un-dernier-sondage-confirme-le-duel-rn-lfi-au-second-tour-13572471.php) — Presidential 2027 : Marine Le Pen Digs the Gap, Jean-Luc Mélenchon Always second... A Final Poll Confirms the RN-LFI Duel in the Second Round
- [Gentside](https://gentside.com/news/politique/art121307-marine-le-pen-largement-devant-philippe-et-melenchon-au-second-tour-selon-un-sondage-sur.html) — Marine Le Pen Largely Ahead of Philippe and Mélenchon in the Second Round According to a Presidential Poll 2027
- [France24](https://france24.com/fr/info-en-continu/20260928-pr%C3%A9sidentielle-le-pen-creuse-l-%C3%A9cart-au-second-tour-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential: Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round, According to a Poll
- [RTL Info](https://rtl.be/actu/monde/france/presidentielle-francaise-marine-le-pen-domine-les-intentions-de-vote-selon-un/2026-09-28/article/801563) — French President : Marine Le Pen Dominates Voting Intentions According to a Poll
- [parismatch.com](https://parismatch.com/actu/politique/le-pen-creuse-lecart-melenchon-se-detache-philippe-decroche-le-sondage-qui-rebat-les-cartes-276477) — Le Pen Digs the Gap, Mélenchon Pulls Off, Philippe Picks up... The Poll that Beats the Cards
- [midilibre.fr](https://midilibre.fr/2026/09/28/sondage-presidentielle-2027-marine-le-pen-domine-edouard-philippe-et-jean-luc-melenchon-au-second-tour-les-toutes-dernieres-tendances-13572437.php) — Presidential SOUNDAGE 2027 : Marine Le Pen Dominates Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the Second round...
- [La Dépêche du Midi](https://ladepeche.fr/2026/09/28/direct-presidentielle-2027-dans-un-nouveau-sondage-marine-le-pen-et-jean-luc-melenchon-au-second-tour-dans-les-cinq-scenarios-etudies-13572439.php) — DIRECT. Presidential 2027: Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the Second Round in the Five Scenarios Studied, According to a New Survey
- [estrepublicain.fr](https://estrepublicain.fr/politique/2026/09/28/le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-philippe-et-melenchon-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027. Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Philippe and Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [bienpublic.com](https://bienpublic.com/politique/2026/09/28/le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-philippe-et-melenchon-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027. Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Philippe and Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [ledauphine.com](https://ledauphine.com/politique/2026/09/28/le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-philippe-et-melenchon-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027. Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Philippe and Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [republicain-lorrain.fr](https://republicain-lorrain.fr/politique/2026/09/28/le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-philippe-et-melenchon-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027. Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Philippe and Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [leprogres.fr](https://leprogres.fr/politique/2026/09/28/le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-philippe-et-melenchon-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027. Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Philippe and Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [vosgesmatin.fr](https://vosgesmatin.fr/politique/2026/09/28/le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-philippe-et-melenchon-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027. Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Philippe and Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [lalsace.fr](https://lalsace.fr/politique/2026/09/28/le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-philippe-et-melenchon-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027. Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Philippe and Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [lejsl.com](https://lejsl.com/politique/2026/09/28/le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-philippe-et-melenchon-selon-un-sondage) — Presidential 2027. Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Philippe and Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [Le Figaro](https://lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/sondages/presidentielle-2027-marine-le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-edouard-philippe-comme-face-a-jean-luc-melenchon-selon-un-sondage-20260928) — Presidential 2027 : Marine Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Édouard Philippe as Opposed to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, According to a Poll
- [Capital.gr](https://capital.gr/diethni/4019923/gallikes-proedrikes-dimoskopisi-dieurunei-to-probadisma-i-lepen-proigeitai-me-simantiki-diafora-ston-b-guro) — French Presidential Election - Poll: Le Pen Widens Lead - Leading by Significant Margin in Second Round
- [Sud Ouest](https://sudouest.fr/elections/presidentielle/presidentielle-2027-marine-le-pen-creuse-l-ecart-au-second-tour-face-a-edouard-philippe-et-jean-luc-melenchon-30813256.php) — Presidential 2027 : Marine Le Pen Digs the Gap in the Second Round Against Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- [ieidiseis.gr](https://ieidiseis.gr/kosmos/874847/lepen-melanson-oi-dyo-monomachoi-gia-tin-proedria-tis-gallias-ti-deichnoyn-ta-gkalop) — Le Pen – Mélenchon, the 2 "Duals" for the Presidency of France
- [Publico](https://publico.pt/2026/09/26/mundo/noticia/nova-sondagem-preve-frente-frente-melenchon-le-pen-segunda-volta-presidenciais-franca-2189417) — New Survey Previews Front-to-Front Between Mélenchon and Le Pen on the Second Round of the Presidential Elections in France
- [frognews.bg](https://frognews.bg/novini/frantsiia-krainosti-melanshon-nai-veroiatniiat-oponent-ljo-pen-prezidentskiia-post.html) — France in Extremes: Mélenchon Is Le Pen's Most Likely opponent...

## Questions

**Who is projected to reach the second round of the 2027 French presidential election?**

A poll by Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL suggests that Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are projected to reach the second round of the 2027 French presidential election. This projection holds true across all five scenarios examined in the survey.

**What are the projected vote shares for Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round?**

The poll projects Marine Le Pen to receive between 35% and 36% of the vote in the first round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is projected to receive between 15% and 18% of the vote in the first round, depending on the specific scenario.

**How does Marine Le Pen perform in projected second-round matchups?**

In a projected second-round contest against Édouard Philippe, Marine Le Pen is expected to win with 57% of the vote. If she were to face Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the second round, she is projected to win with 69% of the vote.

---

MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/politics/poll-le-pen-and-melenchon-projected-for-french-presidential-run-off. Please cite as: MediaBias News, "Poll: Le Pen and Mélenchon projected for French presidential run-off", https://mediabias.news/politics/poll-le-pen-and-melenchon-projected-for-french-presidential-run-off