--- title: "Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms" publication: "MediaBias News" url: "https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms" api: "https://mediabias.news/api/v1/stories/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms" markdown: "https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms.md" audio: "https://mediabias.news/api/audio/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms" category: "Politics" area: "United States" published: "2026-08-17T22:46:25.545Z" source_reported: "2026-08-17T18:44:47.000Z" updated: "2026-08-17T22:46:25.545Z" trust_score: 80 critic_score: 95 hype_score: 55 assessment_type: "coverage-and-source-reporting-analysis" fact_check_status: "not-performed" coverage_measured: "2026-08-18T00:45:18.386731+00:00" --- # Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms *Projections show only three states with positive net approval for the president as Democrats eye congressional gains* **Scores for the source reporting** (0-100, assessing the original journalism this article was written from, not this write-up): - Trust 80 of 100, higher is better. Trust high (80) due to named sources, dataset, multiple outlets, and specific figures from The Economist/YouGov. - Craft 95 of 100, higher is better. Critic score 95 reflects clear context, quotes, specific data, and explanation of electoral implications. - Hype 55 of 100, lower is better. Hype 55 due to sensational language in digests like “bonkers” despite measured factual reporting. Scored by MediaBias News; method at https://mediabias.news/methodology. **The short version** - Trump’s net approval is positive in only three states: Wyoming (+14), Idaho (+9), and West Virginia (+6). - The Economist’s projections show Trump underwater in 47 states, with the District of Columbia at -83, the lowest. - CNN analyst Harry Enten gives Democrats a 52% chance of winning both House and Senate in the midterms. - Trump’s net approval among Hispanic male voters has fallen to -41, a 51-point swing since 2024. Donald Trump’s net approval rating is positive in only three US states, according to state-level projections published by The Economist. The estimates, based on polling data from YouGov, show Wyoming at +14, Idaho at +9, and West Virginia at +6. Every other state and the District of Columbia register negative net approval, with the District at -83, Vermont at -50, and Maryland at -48. The projections indicate Trump’s approval is lowest in states that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Battleground states where Trump won in 2024 now show negative net approval, including Arizona (-23), Georgia (-31), Michigan (-27), Nevada (-27), Pennsylvania (-26), and Wisconsin (-28). Newsweek reported these figures, noting they could influence control of Congress in the upcoming midterms. CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported a 52% probability that Democrats will win control of both the House and Senate in the midterms. Enten identified potential Democratic gains in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa, which could result in a 52-48 majority. He also noted a 51-point swing in net approval among Hispanic male voters, from +10 for Trump in 2024 to -41 in 2026. ## What the coverage left out No right-rated outlet ran this story at all. None of the left-rated digests mentioned the state-level approval projections published by The Economist. The centre-rated digests did not report the 51-point swing in Hispanic male voter approval. ## Who covered it Shares of the 7 covering outlets with a published leaning rating: - Left: 71% (5) - Centre: 29% (2) - Right: 0% (0) 0 of 7 covering outlets carried no usable leaning rating and were excluded from those percentages. Coverage measured 2026-08-18T00:45:18.386731+00:00. **Coverage watch:** developing. Checked 9 times; 0 checks found a material change. Most recently checked 2026-08-18T01:00:15.335Z. ## How the sides framed it ### Left - The five left-rated digests led on the shift in Hispanic male voter approval and the likelihood of Democratic control of Congress. Raw Story and Alternet both quoted Harry Enten’s description of the 51-point swing among Hispanic men as a "switcheroo" and "bonkers shifts". The Independent’s digest framed the story as Trump losing a demographic "key to his victory over Kamala Harris". - Mediaite and nj carried Enten’s 52% probability for a Democratic sweep of Congress. Mediaite’s digest quoted Enten saying he was "surprised" by the result before analysing the data. None of the left-rated digests mentioned the state-level approval projections published by The Economist. ### Centre - Newsweek’s full report led on the state-level approval projections, naming the three states where Trump’s net approval is positive and the states where it is most negative. The article quoted White House spokesperson Davis Ingle, who called the 2024 election "the ultimate poll" and listed Trump’s accomplishments. The Oregonian’s digest focused on Enten’s midterm projections, reporting that Democrats could flip seats in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa to reach a 52-48 majority. ### Right No separate framing summary. **Provisional coverage gap:** right. The watch is not closed, so this is not yet a settled blindspot finding. ## Factuality profile of the covering outlets These are published factuality ratings of the outlets, not a verdict on whether this story or its claims are true. - high: 5 - veryHigh: 2 ## Verification scope This page compares coverage and scores the source reporting. It is not a ClaimReview verdict on whether the underlying event or claim is true. ## Original reporting this was written from - [The Independent](https://independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-hispanic-voters-2026-midterms-b3034410.html) — CNN data guru says Trump has lost a demographic key to his victory over Kamala Harris - [Newsweek](https://newsweek.com/map-shows-only-three-states-that-approve-of-donald-trump-12333143) — Map shows only three states that approve of Donald Trump - [Mediaite](https://mediaite.com/media/tv/i-was-surprised-cnn-data-guru-reveals-most-likely-midterm-election-outcome) — ‘I Was Surprised!’ CNN Data Guru Reveals ‘Most Likely’ Midterm Election Outcome - [The Oregonian](https://oregonlive.com/nation/2026/08/polling-analyst-reveals-most-likely-scenario-for-midterms-and-its-bad-news-for-trump.html) — Polling analyst reveals ‘most likely scenario’ for midterms — and it’s bad news for Trump - [nj](https://nj.com/politics/2026/08/polling-analyst-reveals-most-likely-scenario-for-midterms-and-its-bad-news-for-trump.html) — Polling analyst reveals ‘most likely scenario’ for midterms — and it’s bad news for Trump - [Raw Story](https://rawstory.com/trump-hispanic-voters-2677715085) — Republicans get a 'bonkers' warning shot over key group's 'wrath' against Trump - [Alternet](https://alternet.org/trump-hispanic-voters) — CNN Data guru sees 'bonkers shifts' in Trump losses with key demographic ## Questions **Which states have positive net approval for Trump?** The Economist’s projections show only three states with positive net approval for Trump: Wyoming (+14), Idaho (+9), and West Virginia (+6). Every other state and the District of Columbia register negative net approval, with the District at -83, the lowest. **What is the likelihood of Democrats winning both House and Senate?** CNN data analyst Harry Enten assigned a 52% probability that Democrats will win control of both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms. He identified potential gains in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa that could lead to a 52-48 majority. **How has Trump’s approval among Hispanic male voters changed?** Trump’s net approval among Hispanic male voters has fallen to -41 points, a 51-point swing since 2024, when he led by 10 points. CNN’s Harry Enten described the shift as a "switcheroo" and "bonkers". --- MediaBias News — https://mediabias.news. Reproduced from https://mediabias.news/politics/trumps-approval-underwater-in-47-states-ahead-of-us-midterms. 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