James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in four Texas Senate polls
Democratic nominee holds narrow advantage in surveys released over the past week, including one by Fox News
MediaBias Comparison Desk
AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised
This article was written at the MediaBias News desk from the one-paragraph digests an aggregator publishes for each of the outlets listed below it, together with 2 of those outlets' own reports read in full. How we do it
Texas state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, greets supporters at a primary election watch party March 3, 2026, in Austin, Texas.AP
Photograph: Daily Kos (embedded from source)
What this story says
- Four polls released in the past week show Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by margins of two to three points.
- No Republican super PAC has reserved ad spending in Texas, while AFP Action announced $5.6 million in reservations for five other Senate races.
- Paxton’s campaign dismissed the polls, saying only the November election result matters, a statement a political analyst called a sign of a losing race.
- Donald Trump, who endorsed Paxton in the primary, has not spent money to support his campaign or other competitive Republican Senate candidates.
Who covered it
Percentages are shares of the 6 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. Coverage measured .
Trust
64/100
Craft
71/100
Hype
68/100
6 sources · methodology
Thin on the right so far
None of the 6 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated right.
This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.
Four consecutive polls released over the past week show Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for a U.S. Senate seat. The surveys, conducted by Texas Southern University, Wedgewood Polls, Texas Public Opinion Research, and Fox News, each found Talarico ahead by margins of two to three percentage points. The Fox News poll, which showed Talarico at 51% to Paxton’s 48%, was the only one to place him above the 50% threshold.
A spokesperson for Paxton’s campaign told Axios that "the only poll that matters is Nov. 3," a statement Nathan Gonzales, editor-in-chief of Inside Elections, described in a 2013 article as the second-most common phrase used by losing candidates. Gonzales wrote that such remarks indicate a campaign is losing at the time and lacks evidence to the contrary. A Republican pollster, Patrick Ruffini, wrote on X that if the election were held today, Talarico would likely win.
No Republican super PAC has reserved advertising spending in Texas, despite Paxton’s polling deficit. AFP Action, a super PAC tied to the Koch brothers, announced $5.6 million in ad reservations for five Senate races on Tuesday, none of them in Texas. The group did include Montana, suggesting concern about that state’s race. Paxton has struggled to raise money, and the Republican donor class has shown little support for his campaign.
Donald Trump, who endorsed Paxton in the Texas primary over the objections of Republican leaders, has not spent any of his campaign funds to support Paxton or other competitive Republican Senate candidates. According to Axios, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Trump that Republicans might hold Texas but that Trump would be responsible for the outcome. Trump has used his war chest only to target GOP politicians he considers insufficiently loyal.
What the coverage left out
No centre- or right-rated outlet ran this story at all. None of the reports printed below mention the sample sizes or methodologies of the polls, or whether they were conducted before or after specific campaign events. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll’s exact margin was not included in the Daily Kos report.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
4 rated outlets
- The Daily Kos report led on the four consecutive polls showing Talarico ahead, including the Fox News survey that placed him above 50%. It quoted Paxton’s campaign spokesperson dismissing the polls as irrelevant until November, and cited Nathan Gonzales’ analysis that such statements are a sign of a losing campaign. The report also highlighted the absence of Republican super PAC spending in Texas, contrasting it with AFP Action’s $5.6 million reservations in other states.
- The Daily Kos described Paxton as "scandal-plagued" and quoted Talarico’s remarks on MS NOW, where he called Paxton’s personal and public conduct corrupt. The report used the phrase "white whale" in its headline to frame the Texas Senate race as a long-sought Democratic opportunity. It also noted Trump’s refusal to spend money on Paxton’s campaign, calling it evidence that Trump prioritises personal loyalty over party success.
Centre
2 rated outlets
We have not written our reading of the centre coverage of this story. The centre-rated outlets that ran it are listed below.
Right
0 rated outlets
No outlet rated right has run this story so far. We are still checking, and will say plainly if that does not change.
Read it at the source
6 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
4- A blue Texas: Will Democrats finally catch their white whale this year? (opens Daily Kos in a new tab)
- ‘One-two blow’ wallops MAGA candidate as election prospects grow increasingly dire: report (opens Raw Story in a new tab)
- Rice Researcher: Paxton Should Be Worried (opens Houston Press in a new tab)
Houston PressOpinion
- Third Texas Senate poll in a week shows Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton (opens USA Today in a new tab)
Centre
2Right
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Not rated
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
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