152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds
A study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified wallets with a near-perfect win rate betting on military events.
AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

Insider Trading in Prediction Markets Raises National Security Concerns
Photograph: Devdiscourse (embedded from source)
What this story says
- The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 Polymarket wallets that bet on US military events with an average win rate of 97.2%.
- The wallets generated $8 million in profits, according to Moneycontrol, raising concerns about insider trading and national security.
- The study suggests foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades, despite Polymarket’s monitoring efforts.
- Calls for tighter regulation of prediction markets have followed, with experts warning that law enforcement alone is insufficient.
Who covered it
Percentages are shares of the 10 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 2 of the 12 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .
Trust
78/100
Craft
65/100
Hype
25/100
12 sources · methodology
Thin on the left so far
Only 1 of the 10 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated left.
This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.
A study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that 152 wallets on the Polymarket International platform traded on inside information about US military operations. The wallets achieved an average win rate of 97.2%, as reported by Devdiscourse. The research, published on 20 August 2026, raises concerns that foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades.
The wallets generated $8 million in profits, according to Moneycontrol. The study also noted that copycat trades by bots and wealthy investors may have amplified the signals, as reported by Devdiscourse. Polymarket’s public ledger makes it easier to detect unusual betting patterns, but experts argue that current monitoring measures are inadequate.
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective called for tighter regulation of prediction markets, including banning markets susceptible to insider trading. The study was partly driven by a case involving a US soldier accused of using classified information to bet on political events, as detailed in the full report by Devdiscourse.
What the coverage left out
None of the right-rated digests mentioned the 97.2% win rate reported by Devdiscourse. The left-rated digest from Al-Monitor did not include the $8 million profit figure reported by Moneycontrol. The centre-rated digests from Benzinga and WTVB did not detail the role of copycat trades or the calls for tighter regulation.
Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 4 times, most recently on 20 Aug 2026, 16:00, and will add the sides that appear.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
1 rated outlet
- The left-rated digest from Al-Monitor led on the national security implications of the trades. It reported that the research, conducted by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, found more than 150 wallets may have traded on inside US military information. The digest also noted concerns that foreign adversaries could exploit signals from these trades.
Centre
4 rated outlets
- The centre-rated digests from Reuters, Benzinga, WTVB, and Devdiscourse all led on the number of wallets involved and the potential for insider trading. Reuters and WTVB reported that more than 150 wallets may have traded on inside US military information, while Benzinga highlighted the national security concerns raised by the activity. Devdiscourse’s full report detailed the 97.2% win rate and the $8 million in profits, as well as the role of copycat trades in amplifying signals.
Right
5 rated outlets
- The right-rated digests from NDTV, Sapo, Seeking Alpha, Moneycontrol, and The Straits Times focused on the financial gains and the scale of the activity. NDTV’s digest noted that the wallets made millions, while Sapo and The Straits Times reported that more than 150 wallets were involved. Moneycontrol’s digest highlighted the $8 million in profits and the role of copycat trades. Seeking Alpha’s digest called for an investigation into potential insider bets on military information.
Questions about this coverage
- How did the left and right cover 152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds?
- Of the 10 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 10% are rated left, 40% are rated centre, 50% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 12. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
- Is 152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds left or right?
- Too few of the outlets on this story carry a published leaning rating to say. 10 of them do, and this site does not characterise a field under 12: at that size one newsroom filing moves the share by ten points. The percentages above are the count as it stands.
- Is the coverage of 152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds biased?
- 152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds is one event reported by 12 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
- Which side is not reporting 152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds?
- When we first saw this story, outlets rated left had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
- Which outlets covered 152 Polymarket Wallets Traded on US Military Secrets, Research Finds?
- 12 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
- How many Polymarket wallets were identified in the study?
- The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 wallets that traded on inside information about US military operations. The wallets had an average win rate of 97.2%, as reported by Devdiscourse, raising concerns about insider trading and national security.
- What profits did the wallets generate?
- The wallets generated $8 million in profits, according to Moneycontrol. The study also found that copycat trades by bots and wealthy investors may have amplified signals from these trades, as reported by Devdiscourse.
- Why are these trades a national security concern?
- The trades are a national security concern because foreign adversaries could exploit signals from the betting patterns, according to the research. The study calls for tighter regulation of prediction markets to prevent insider trading, as detailed in Devdiscourse’s full report.
Read it at the source
12 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
1Centre
4- Polymarket Bets Raise Red Flags as 150+ Wallets Flagged For US Military Information Leaks - JPMorgan Chas (opens Benzinga in a new tab)
- Insider Trading in Prediction Markets Raises National Security Concerns (opens Devdiscourse in a new tab)
Devdiscourse — is Devdiscourse biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Exclusive-More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds (opens WTVB in a new tab)
- EXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds (opens Reuters in a new tab)
Right
5- Inside "Orcas": How 150 Traders Made Millions Betting On US Military Moves (opens NDTV in a new tab)
- Betting at Polymarket May Be Revealing U.S. Military Secrets (opens Sapo in a new tab)
- Research group calls for probe of potential insider bets on military information on Polymarket (opens Seeking Alpha in a new tab)
Seeking Alpha — is Seeking Alpha biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Polymarket war bets raise alarm as 152 wallets post 97% win rate, make $8 million (opens Moneycontrol in a new tab)
Moneycontrol — is Moneycontrol biased? Our profile of this outlet
- More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds (opens The Straits Times in a new tab)
The Straits Times — is The Straits Times biased? Our profile of this outlet
Not rated
2How did this read?
About the coverage, not about the story. We do not ask whether you agree with what happened — we have no honest use for that answer.

