Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show
JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs offer differing estimates on Gulf oil flows amid ongoing conflict.
AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show
Photograph: 연합뉴스-Yonhap News Agency (embedded from source)
What this story says
- Middle East crude oil exports are estimated to be at 98% of pre-war levels, according to JP Morgan.
- Goldman Sachs estimates oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels per day.
- Refined petroleum product exports from the Middle East are at 58% of pre-war levels, JP Morgan reports.
- US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to their lowest point since 1982.
Who covered it
Percentages are shares of the 36 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 36 of the 72 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .
Trust
50/100
Craft
45/100
Hype
20/100
72 sources · methodology
Thin on the left so far
Only 5 of the 36 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated left.
This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have nearly returned to pre-war levels, with JP Morgan estimating daily shipments at 17.5 million barrels, representing 98% of pre-war volumes. This recovery is occurring despite ongoing risks to shipping in the region. JP Morgan also reported that refined petroleum product exports from the Middle East stand at 58% of pre-war levels.
Divergent Estimates on Oil Flows
Estimates for oil flows from the region vary between major financial institutions. While JP Morgan's analysis places Middle East crude oil exports at 17.5 million barrels per day, Goldman Sachs estimates oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels per day. Kpler reported that oil and product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million barrels per day, which is 77% of pre-war levels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds fewer than 284 million barrels, the lowest quantity since 1982.
What the coverage left out
None of the centre or right-rated reports mentioned the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks falling below 284 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. This detail was present in the full report from the right-rated outlet Yonhap News Agency.
Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 3 times, most recently on 30 Sept 2026, 09:30, and will add the sides that appear.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
5 rated outlets
- All three left‑rated outlets reported that oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has risen sharply, reaching roughly 70 to 80 percent of the volume seen before the conflict. The Danas article cited the Wall Street Journal, while the Telegrafi digest referred to Vortexa data and the Semafor digest quoted Kpler research.
- Danas’ full report added that Iran’s capacity to interrupt the flow is weakening, allowing the U.S. Navy and Gulf producers to evade attacks more effectively. It noted Saudi Arabia’s continued pipeline exports after repairs, although volumes remain lower, and said the brief price dip was outweighed by market concerns over stalled U.S., Iran talks.
- The Telegrafi and Semafor digests did not mention Iran’s reduced leverage, the U.S., Iran negotiation context, or Saudi pipeline repairs, limiting their coverage to percentage figures. None of the three left‑rated pieces provided a cost estimate for the increased shipments.
Centre
18 rated outlets
- The centre-rated reports highlighted the divergence in estimates between JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs regarding oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Both outlets noted JP Morgan's figure of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, for crude oil exports. They also reported Goldman Sachs' higher estimate of 23.3 million barrels per day for oil outflows in the Persian Gulf. Bloomberg's report included a quote from JP Morgan analysts stating, "The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again," and noting it was "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war."
Right
13 rated outlets
- Right-rated reports focused on the recovery of Middle East oil exports to near pre-war levels, often framing it as a blow to Iran's leverage. Yonhap News Agency's full report cited JP Morgan's estimate of 17.5 million barrels per day, 98% of pre-war levels, and Kpler's figure of 13.1 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz. It also mentioned the use of 'oil shuttle services' for exports and the potential weakening of Iran's negotiating position. RealClearMarkets' digest stated, "Trump Is Proving That Iran Can't Control Global Oil Supply," suggesting the recovery ends "energy blackmail." Business Times and Moneycontrol digests both reported JP Morgan's figure of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, for crude oil shipments.
Questions about this coverage
- How did the left and right cover Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show?
- Of the 36 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 14% are rated left, 50% are rated centre, 36% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 72. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
- Is Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show left or right?
- Neither side dominates it. Of the 36 rated outlets on this story, 14% are rated left, 50% are rated centre, 36% are rated right, and no side holds the 70% this site would want before calling a field one-sided. A story is not left or right in any case; the outlets that carried it are what carry ratings.
- Is the coverage of Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show biased?
- Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show is one event reported by 72 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
- Which side is not reporting Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show?
- When we first saw this story, outlets rated left had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
- Which outlets covered Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show?
- 72 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
- What are the estimates for Middle East crude oil exports?
- JP Morgan estimates Middle East crude oil exports at 17.5 million barrels per day, which is 98% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs provided a higher estimate of 23.3 million barrels per day for oil outflows in the Persian Gulf.
- How do oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz compare to pre-war levels?
- Kpler reported that oil and product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million barrels per day. This figure represents 77% of the pre-war levels for shipments passing through the strait.
- What is the status of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks?
- US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks are below 284 million barrels. This is the lowest level recorded for the reserve since 1982, indicating a significant drawdown.
Read it at the source
74 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
5- Oil Is Passing Through Hormuz Again, Traffic Has Returned to 70 Percent of Pre-War Levels (opens Telegrafi in a new tab)
- As Iran’s grip on Hormuz weakens, what leverage does Tehran have left? (opens Al-Monitor in a new tab)
Al-Monitor — is Al-Monitor biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Oil Deliveries Through the Strait of Hormus Are Increasing (opens Sueddeutsche Zeitung in a new tab)
Sueddeutsche Zeitung — is Sueddeutsche Zeitung biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Oil flows out of Middle East increase (opens Semafor in a new tab)
- WSJ: Iran's Power to Cut Off the Flow of Oil Through the Strait of Hormuz Is Weakening, Oil Exports Through the Persian Gulf Are Increasing (opens Dnevni list Danas in a new tab)
Dnevni list Danas — is Dnevni list Danas biased? Our profile of this outlet
Centre
19- Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever (opens Egypt Independent in a new tab)
Egypt Independent — is Egypt Independent biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Watch JPMorgan, Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels (opens Bloomberg in a new tab)
- JP Morgan, Goldman Diverge on Hormuz Oil Flow Estimates (opens Oil Price in a new tab)
- Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says (opens Bloomberg in a new tab)
Bloomberg
- Mideast Crude Oil Flows Hit 98% of Pre-War Level, JPMorgan Says (opens Live Mint in a new tab)
- Has Iran lost its grip on Gulf oil exports? (opens The Economist in a new tab)
The Economist — is The Economist biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens kioncentralcoast.com in a new tab)
kioncentralcoast.com — is kioncentralcoast.com biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens KEZI 9 News in a new tab)
KEZI 9 News — is KEZI 9 News biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
Show 11 more
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens WXOW in a new tab)
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens Local 3 News in a new tab)
Local 3 News — is Local 3 News biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens KESQ in a new tab)
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens KMIZ in a new tab)
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens KEYT in a new tab)
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens KVIA in a new tab)
- Irán ha perdido una influencia considerable en el estrecho de Ormuz. Esto no puede continuar así para siempre (opens KRDO in a new tab)
- Iran Has Lost Considerable Influence in the Strait of Ormuz. This Cannot Continue Forever. (opens KIFI in a new tab)
- The US Navy Just Pulled Off a Strategic Master Stroke in the Strait of Hormuz — the World’s Most Important Waterway May Never Be the Same (opens nationalsecurityjournal.org in a new tab)
nationalsecurityjournal.org — is nationalsecurityjournal.org biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Middle East oil exports rise as LNG traffic through Hormuz picks up (opens Euronews in a new tab)
- Middle East Oil Exports Show Signs of Recovery (opens Eesti Rahvusringhääling in a new tab)
Eesti Rahvusringhääling — is Eesti Rahvusringhääling biased? Our profile of this outlet
Right
13- Has Iran Lost Leverage?... "Middle East Crude Oil Exports at 98% of Pre-War Levels" (opens 연합뉴스-Yonhap News Agency in a new tab)
연합뉴스-Yonhap News Agency — is 연합뉴스-Yonhap News Agency biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Trump Is Proving That Iran Can't Control Global Oil Supply (opens RealClearMarkets in a new tab)
RealClearMarkets — is RealClearMarkets biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- JPMorgan and Goldman see Middle East oil flows near pre-war levels (opens Business Times in a new tab)
Business Times — is Business Times biased? Our profile of this outlet
- West Asia crude oil flows hit 98% of pre-war level despite escalation, JPMorgan says (opens CNBC-TV18 in a new tab)
- Mideast crude oil flows hit 98% of pre-war level, JPMorgan says (opens Moneycontrol in a new tab)
Moneycontrol — is Moneycontrol biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Surge in Middle East Oil Exports Amid Decline of Iran's Influence (opens News Addicts in a new tab)
News Addicts — is News Addicts biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Middle East Exports Rebound As Iran's Chokehold On Strait Of Hormuz Falters (opens TrendingPolitics in a new tab)
TrendingPolitics — is TrendingPolitics biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump is proving that Iran CAN’T control the global oil supply — a win for the world (opens New York Post in a new tab)
New York Post — is New York Post biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
Show 5 more
- Iran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz continues to erode — and crude oil exports are rebounding (opens Conservative Review in a new tab)
Conservative Review — is Conservative Review biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Iran's stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz continues to erode — and crude oil exports are rebounding (opens The Blaze in a new tab)
The Blaze — is The Blaze biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Hormuz traffic nears prewar levels as Iran war simmers (opens Washington Times in a new tab)
Washington Times — is Washington Times biased? Our profile of this outlet
- The Parade of Hormuz Horribles Fizzles Out (opens National Review in a new tab)
National Review — is National Review biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Again Around 12.8 Million Barrels a Day: While Iran's Hormus Control Is Dwindling, Oil Exports Are Recovering (opens FOCUS online in a new tab)
FOCUS online — is FOCUS online biased? Our profile of this outlet
Not rated
37- Oil Relief Boosts Markets, But Britain's Energy Woes Persist (opens European Business Magazine in a new tab)
European Business Magazine — is European Business Magazine biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Middle East Oil Flows Near Prewar Levels as Estimates Diverge (opens TokenPost in a new tab)
- JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs: Middle East Oil Flows Approach Pre-War Levels (opens banker.bg in a new tab)
- Middle East Oil Exports Reach 98% – Why Warning Is Premature (opens finanzmarktwelt.de in a new tab)
finanzmarktwelt.de — is finanzmarktwelt.de biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Oil Flow From the Gulf Has Approached Pre-War Levels. (opens ekonomim.com in a new tab)
ekonomim.com — is ekonomim.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs: "Middle East Oil Shipments Near Pre-War Levels" (opens asiae.co.kr in a new tab)
asiae.co.kr — is asiae.co.kr biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Surprising Development in Oil Amidst the War: Almost Completely Back - Dünya Newspaper (opens dunya.com in a new tab)
- Open AI's Dirty Goal Sent Softbank Flying – Oil Flows Returning to Pre-War Levels (opens arvopaperi.fi in a new tab)
arvopaperi.fi — is arvopaperi.fi biased? Our profile of this outlet
Show 29 more
- MARKETS: Open AI's Outrageous Goal Put Softbank Flying -- Oil Flows Returning to Pre-War Levels (opens Tärkeimmät talousuutiset | Kauppalehti… in a new tab)
- JP Morgan: “Middle East Oil Exports Are Flowing Again” (opens Dagens industri in a new tab)
Dagens industri — is Dagens industri biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Hormuz oil flows rebound, but market still faces supply risks (opens Lahore Mirror in a new tab)
Lahore Mirror — is Lahore Mirror biased? Our profile of this outlet
- CNN: Iran Has Lost Its Significant Advantage in the Strait of Hormuz, but This Cannot Last Long (opens focus-news.net in a new tab)
focus-news.net — is focus-news.net biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever (opens Phil's Stock World in a new tab)
Phil's Stock World — is Phil's Stock World biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- CNN: Iran Has Lost Significant Leverage in the Strait of Hormuz (opens ГОЛОВНА in a new tab)
ГОЛОВНАOpinion
- Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Leverage Could Raise Conflict Risk (opens TokenPost in a new tab)
TokenPostOpinion
- Iran's leverage in Strait of Hormuz declines, raising conflict risk: WSJ (opens Crypto Briefing in a new tab)
Crypto Briefing — is Crypto Briefing biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Iran’s leverage in Strait of Hormuz declines, raising conflict risk: WSJ (opens Cryptocurrency News in a new tab)
Cryptocurrency News — is Cryptocurrency News biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Oil flows through Hormuz, alternative routes near 80% of pre-war levels (opens The Zambian Observer in a new tab)
The Zambian Observer — is The Zambian Observer biased? Our profile of this outlet
- CNN: Iran Is Losing Control of the Strait of Hormuz – Why the Current Balance Cannot Last (opens ΑΘΗΝΑ 9,84 in a new tab)
ΑΘΗΝΑ 9,84 — is ΑΘΗΝΑ 9,84 biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Oil supply from the Middle East rises sharply: What happens to crude prices next? - THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES (opens Thelocalreport.in in a new tab)
Thelocalreport.in — is Thelocalreport.in biased? Our profile of this outlet
- More Oil Is Passing Through the Strait of Hormuz Again, but It Is Far From Pre-War Levels (opens glasistre.hr in a new tab)
glasistre.hr — is glasistre.hr biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Oil Returns to Ormuz: Flows Have Increased but Prices Remain High (opens 1prime.ru in a new tab)
- Crude Prices Pressured as More Oil Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz (opens BizToc in a new tab)
- Oil Deliveries by Road From Hormus Are Increasing (opens Moneycab in a new tab)
- Oil Passes Through Hormuz Again, Traffic Has Returned to 70% of Pre-War Levels (opens vecernji.ba in a new tab)
vecernji.ba — is vecernji.ba biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Gulf Oil Is Approaching Pre-War levels... Has the Embargo Succeeded in Strangling Iran? (opens 7al.net in a new tab)
7al.net — is 7al.net biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Iran's Hormuz oil leverage fades as escalation risk climbs (opens MyCryptoParadise in a new tab)
MyCryptoParadise — is MyCryptoParadise biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Middle East Oil Exports Hit Highest Level Since War Began (opens vz.lt in a new tab)
- Iran War: Again More Oil Deliveries Through the Strait of Hormus (opens wiwo.de in a new tab)
- Middle East Oil Exports Rebound, But Hormuz Disruption Keeps Brent Above $100 (opens wealthiertoday.com in a new tab)
wealthiertoday.com — is wealthiertoday.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Increased Oil Exports Through Hormuz Could Weaken Iran's Leverage (opens inyheter.no in a new tab)
inyheter.no — is inyheter.no biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Oil Deliveries by Road From Hormus Are Increasing (opens ORF.at News in a new tab)
ORF.at News — is ORF.at News biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Middle East Oil Exports Resume and Iran's Hold over the Strait of Ormuz Weakens (opens L'Opinion in a new tab)
L'Opinion — is L'Opinion biased? Our profile of this outletOpinion
- Oil Deliveries by Road From Hormuz Are Increasing (opens suedtirolnews.it in a new tab)
suedtirolnews.it — is suedtirolnews.it biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Oil Deliveries by Road From Hormuz Rise Significantly (opens vienna.at in a new tab)
- WSJ: Iran's Power to Cut Off the Flow of Oil Through the Sea of Hormuz Is Weakening, Oil Exports Through the Persian Gulf Are Increasing (opens Naslovi.net in a new tab)
Naslovi.net — is Naslovi.net biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Middle East oil flows recover to nearly 80% of pre-war levels: WSJ (opens arabtimesonline.com in a new tab)
arabtimesonline.com — is arabtimesonline.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
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