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Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs offer differing estimates on Gulf oil flows amid ongoing conflict.

AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

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Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show

What this story says

  • Middle East crude oil exports are estimated to be at 98% of pre-war levels, according to JP Morgan.
  • Goldman Sachs estimates oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels per day.
  • Refined petroleum product exports from the Middle East are at 58% of pre-war levels, JP Morgan reports.
  • US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to their lowest point since 1982.

Who covered it

Left 14%(5)Centre 50%(18)Right 36%(13)

Percentages are shares of the 36 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 36 of the 72 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .

Trust

50/100

Craft

45/100

Hype

20/100

72 sources · methodology

Thin on the left so far

Only 5 of the 36 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated left.

This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have nearly returned to pre-war levels, with JP Morgan estimating daily shipments at 17.5 million barrels, representing 98% of pre-war volumes. This recovery is occurring despite ongoing risks to shipping in the region. JP Morgan also reported that refined petroleum product exports from the Middle East stand at 58% of pre-war levels.

Divergent Estimates on Oil Flows

Estimates for oil flows from the region vary between major financial institutions. While JP Morgan's analysis places Middle East crude oil exports at 17.5 million barrels per day, Goldman Sachs estimates oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels per day. Kpler reported that oil and product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million barrels per day, which is 77% of pre-war levels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds fewer than 284 million barrels, the lowest quantity since 1982.

What the coverage left out

None of the centre or right-rated reports mentioned the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks falling below 284 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. This detail was present in the full report from the right-rated outlet Yonhap News Agency.

Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 3 times, most recently on 30 Sept 2026, 09:30, and will add the sides that appear.

How each side covered it

Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.

Left

5 rated outlets

  • All three left‑rated outlets reported that oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has risen sharply, reaching roughly 70 to 80 percent of the volume seen before the conflict. The Danas article cited the Wall Street Journal, while the Telegrafi digest referred to Vortexa data and the Semafor digest quoted Kpler research.
  • Danas’ full report added that Iran’s capacity to interrupt the flow is weakening, allowing the U.S. Navy and Gulf producers to evade attacks more effectively. It noted Saudi Arabia’s continued pipeline exports after repairs, although volumes remain lower, and said the brief price dip was outweighed by market concerns over stalled U.S., Iran talks.
  • The Telegrafi and Semafor digests did not mention Iran’s reduced leverage, the U.S., Iran negotiation context, or Saudi pipeline repairs, limiting their coverage to percentage figures. None of the three left‑rated pieces provided a cost estimate for the increased shipments.

Centre

18 rated outlets

  • The centre-rated reports highlighted the divergence in estimates between JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs regarding oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Both outlets noted JP Morgan's figure of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, for crude oil exports. They also reported Goldman Sachs' higher estimate of 23.3 million barrels per day for oil outflows in the Persian Gulf. Bloomberg's report included a quote from JP Morgan analysts stating, "The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again," and noting it was "a remarkable recovery for a region still at war."

Right

13 rated outlets

  • Right-rated reports focused on the recovery of Middle East oil exports to near pre-war levels, often framing it as a blow to Iran's leverage. Yonhap News Agency's full report cited JP Morgan's estimate of 17.5 million barrels per day, 98% of pre-war levels, and Kpler's figure of 13.1 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz. It also mentioned the use of 'oil shuttle services' for exports and the potential weakening of Iran's negotiating position. RealClearMarkets' digest stated, "Trump Is Proving That Iran Can't Control Global Oil Supply," suggesting the recovery ends "energy blackmail." Business Times and Moneycontrol digests both reported JP Morgan's figure of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, for crude oil shipments.

Questions about this coverage

How did the left and right cover Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show?
Of the 36 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 14% are rated left, 50% are rated centre, 36% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 72. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
Is Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show left or right?
Neither side dominates it. Of the 36 rated outlets on this story, 14% are rated left, 50% are rated centre, 36% are rated right, and no side holds the 70% this site would want before calling a field one-sided. A story is not left or right in any case; the outlets that carried it are what carry ratings.
Is the coverage of Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show biased?
Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show is one event reported by 72 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
Which side is not reporting Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show?
When we first saw this story, outlets rated left had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
Which outlets covered Middle East Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels, Reports Show?
72 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
What are the estimates for Middle East crude oil exports?
JP Morgan estimates Middle East crude oil exports at 17.5 million barrels per day, which is 98% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs provided a higher estimate of 23.3 million barrels per day for oil outflows in the Persian Gulf.
How do oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz compare to pre-war levels?
Kpler reported that oil and product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million barrels per day. This figure represents 77% of the pre-war levels for shipments passing through the strait.
What is the status of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks?
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks are below 284 million barrels. This is the lowest level recorded for the reserve since 1982, indicating a significant drawdown.

Read it at the source

74 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.

Left

5

Centre

19
Show 11 more

Right

13
Show 5 more

Not rated

37
Show 29 more

How did this read?

About the coverage, not about the story. We do not ask whether you agree with what happened — we have no honest use for that answer.

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