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Business & Economy7 outlets ran this3 min read

Oil majors expect profits to surge on Iran war

Companies anticipate higher refining margins and cash flow due to conflict in the Middle East.

AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

Published
Image Credit: Reuters

What this story says

  • Oil majors anticipate a substantial rise in third-quarter profits, with refining margins expected to increase three- to fourfold compared to the previous year.
  • Shell is guiding for a record refining margin of $42 a barrel, while TotalEnergies expects its refining and chemicals business cash flow to double.
  • Investors are focused on how oil companies will allocate their increased earnings, with debt reduction and disciplined spending being key considerations.
  • HSBC forecasts Shell will announce a $3.5 billion share buyback in the fourth quarter, and Citi data suggests BP's net debt to operating cash flow will fall significantly.

Who covered it

Left 0%(0)Centre 33%(2)Right 67%(4)

Percentages are shares of the 6 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 1 of the 7 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .

Trust

74/100

Craft

95/100

Hype

15/100

7 sources · methodology

Major oil companies are set to report a significant increase in third-quarter profits, driven by higher refining and trading results attributed to the war in Iran. The conflict has led to multi-year highs in energy prices, creating volatility that trading desks have profited from. Companies including Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies expect their refining margins to triple or quadruple from a year ago. Shell is specifically guiding for a record high refining margin of $42 a barrel. TotalEnergies anticipates its cash flow from refining and chemicals will double to approximately $4 billion compared to the previous quarter. Exxon has also signalled that higher refining margins could boost its downstream profit by $4.5 billion from the prior quarter.

Spending plans under scrutiny

As oil majors prepare to release their third-quarter results, investors are closely examining their spending plans. While companies have historically struggled with cost control during periods of high earnings, they have pledged to maintain discipline this time. Chevron and Exxon have so far used their increased cash to pay down debt. Analysts are monitoring Chevron's investments in Venezuela and its efforts to extend its contract for the TCO joint venture in Kazakhstan. HSBC projects that Shell will announce a $3.5 billion share buyback for the fourth quarter, following a reduction in its buyback pace earlier in the year. BP's financial position is also improving, with Citi data indicating its net debt to operating cash flow is expected to fall from 1.7 times at the end of 2025 to 0.8 times by the third quarter. HSBC analysts suggest that BP's priority will remain deleveraging, with stable capital expenditure and no buyback resumption before 2028.

What the coverage left out

None of the right-rated reports below mention the specific figure of $3.5 billion for Shell's expected fourth-quarter buyback, a detail present in ARY News's full report. Furthermore, no left-rated outlet ran this story.

Tags:#OilProfits#IranWar#EnergyMarkets#CorporateSpending#Shell#BP

Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 1 time, most recently on 20 Oct 2026, 11:15, and will add the sides that appear.

How each side covered it

Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.

Left

0 rated outlets

No outlet rated left has run this story so far. We are still checking, and will say plainly if that does not change.

Centre

2 rated outlets

  • The centre-rated report from WTVB led on the expectation of increased third-quarter profits for oil majors due to the Iran war boosting energy prices and refining results. It highlighted that investors are monitoring how companies will manage their windfall, focusing on debt reduction and spending discipline over increased shareholder payouts and investments. The digest noted Shell, BP, Exxon, and other producers are preparing for stronger earnings.

Right

4 rated outlets

  • The right-rated reports from ARY News, [your]NEWS, regionalmedianews.com, and The Straits Times all focused on oil majors facing a spending test amid windfall profits from the Iran war. ARY News, in its full report, detailed that the US-Israeli war on Iran has boosted refining and trading results, pushing energy prices to multi-year highs. It noted that companies like Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies expect refining margins to increase three- to fourfold, with Shell guiding for a record $42 a barrel. The reports also highlighted investor scrutiny over how companies will use their cash, with a focus on debt reduction and avoiding a spending spree. ARY News specifically mentioned BP's improving financial position, with net debt to operating cash flow expected to fall significantly, and HSBC's projection of a $3.5 billion buyback from Shell.

Questions about this coverage

How did the left and right cover Oil majors expect profits to surge on Iran war?
Of the 6 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 0% are rated left, 33% are rated centre, 67% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 7. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
Is Oil majors expect profits to surge on Iran war left or right?
Too few of the outlets on this story carry a published leaning rating to say. 6 of them do, and this site does not characterise a field under 12: at that size one newsroom filing moves the share by ten points. The percentages above are the count as it stands.
Is the coverage of Oil majors expect profits to surge on Iran war biased?
Oil majors expect profits to surge on Iran war is one event reported by 7 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
Which outlets covered Oil majors expect profits to surge on Iran war?
7 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
How much do oil majors expect their refining margins to increase?
Oil majors expect their third-quarter refining margins to increase three- to fourfold from a year ago. Shell is specifically guiding for a record high margin of $42 a barrel, indicating a substantial surge in profitability for the sector.
What is the main concern for investors regarding oil majors' profits?
Investors are primarily concerned with how oil majors will wisely use their increased cash piles. The focus is on whether companies will prioritise debt reduction and maintain spending discipline, rather than engaging in a spending spree or increasing shareholder payouts.
What financial improvements are expected for BP?
Citi data suggests BP's net debt to operating cash flow is projected to fall from 1.7 times at the end of 2025 to an expected 0.8 times by the third quarter. This indicates a significant strengthening of BP's balance sheet.

Read it at the source

7 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.

Left

0

No outlet in this group ran the story.

Centre

2

Right

4

Not rated

1

How did this read?

About the coverage, not about the story. We do not ask whether you agree with what happened — we have no honest use for that answer.

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