Analysts: Trump, referendum talk make Quebec election unpredictable
A comparison of how left and centre-rated outlets covered analysts' predictions for the upcoming Quebec election.
AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

Analysts: Trump, referendum talk make Quebec election unpredictable
Photograph: The Toronto Star (embedded from source)
What this story says
- Analysts predict the upcoming Quebec election will be hard to forecast due to factors including Donald Trump and referendum discussions.
- Four years ago, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party began the provincial election campaign with a substantial lead.
- The outcome of the current Quebec election is considered less certain than it was four years ago.
- No right-rated outlets covered this story.
Who covered it
Percentages are shares of the 22 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 2 of the 24 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .
Trust
30/100
Craft
45/100
Hype
41/100
24 sources · methodology
Thin on the right so far
None of the 22 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated right.
This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.
Analysts have stated that the upcoming Quebec election will be difficult to predict. They point to the influence of Donald Trump and discussions about potential referendums as key factors contributing to this uncertainty. This contrasts with the provincial election held four years ago, when François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party was in a commanding lead at the campaign's outset. At that time, the primary question was which party would secure second place, indicating a less competitive race.
Coverage comparison
What the coverage left out
No right-rated outlets published reports on this story. The left-rated reports did not mention that the outcome of the current Quebec election is less certain than four years ago.
Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 4 times, most recently on 24 Aug 2026, 13:00, and will add the sides that appear.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
16 rated outlets
- Sixteen left-rated reports led with the prediction that Donald Trump and referendum talk would make the Quebec election tough to predict. All sixteen reports stated that four years ago, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party was far in the lead at the start of the provincial election campaign, and that the only debate was who would finish second. None of these reports mentioned that the outcome of the current election is less certain than four years ago.
Centre
6 rated outlets
- Six centre-rated reports led with the prediction that Donald Trump and referendum talk would make the Quebec election tough to predict. All six reports stated that four years ago, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party was far in the lead at the start of the provincial election campaign, and that the only debate was who would finish second. In addition, all six reports noted that the outcome of the current Quebec election is less certain than four years ago.
Right
0 rated outlets
No outlet rated right has run this story so far. We are still checking, and will say plainly if that does not change.
Questions about this coverage
- How did the left and right cover Analysts: Trump, referendum talk make Quebec election unpredictable?
- Of the 22 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 73% are rated left, 27% are rated centre, 0% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 24. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
- Is Analysts: Trump, referendum talk make Quebec election unpredictable left or right?
- The story itself is neither. What can be counted is who has covered it, and 73% of the 22 rated outlets on it are rated left — so far this is a story carried mostly by the left. Coverage is still arriving and that can change, which is why the figure is dated rather than fixed.
- Is the coverage of Analysts: Trump, referendum talk make Quebec election unpredictable biased?
- Analysts: Trump, referendum talk make Quebec election unpredictable is one event reported by 24 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
- Which side is not reporting Analysts: Trump, referendum talk make Quebec election unpredictable?
- When we first saw this story, outlets rated right had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
- Which outlets covered Analysts: Trump, referendum talk make Quebec election unpredictable?
- 24 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
- What makes the upcoming Quebec election unpredictable?
- Analysts suggest that discussions surrounding Donald Trump and the possibility of referendums are key factors contributing to the unpredictability of the upcoming Quebec election. These elements create an uncertain political environment.
- How does the current election compare to the one four years ago?
- Four years ago, François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec party began the provincial election campaign with a significant lead, making the outcome largely predictable. The current election, however, is considered less certain by analysts.
- Which political groups covered this story?
- The story was covered by left-rated and centre-rated outlets. No right-rated outlets published reports on this topic.
Read it at the source
24 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
16- Trump and referendum talk make the Quebec election tough to predict, analysts say (opens National Observer in a new tab)
National Observer — is National Observer biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Oakville News in a new tab)
Oakville News — is Oakville News biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens thealbertan.com in a new tab)
thealbertan.com — is thealbertan.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens ElliotLakeToday.com in a new tab)
ElliotLakeToday.com — is ElliotLakeToday.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens InnisfilToday.ca in a new tab)
InnisfilToday.ca — is InnisfilToday.ca biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Bay Today in a new tab)
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Sudbury in a new tab)
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Bowen Island Undercurrent in a new tab)
Bowen Island Undercurrent — is Bowen Island Undercurrent biased? Our profile of this outlet
Show 8 more
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Elora Fergus Today in a new tab)
Elora Fergus Today — is Elora Fergus Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Thorold Today in a new tab)
Thorold Today — is Thorold Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Orillia Matters in a new tab)
Orillia Matters — is Orillia Matters biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens SooToday.com in a new tab)
SooToday.com — is SooToday.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Rocky Mountain Outlook in a new tab)
Rocky Mountain Outlook — is Rocky Mountain Outlook biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens The Toronto Star in a new tab)
The Toronto Star — is The Toronto Star biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens WellandTribune.ca in a new tab)
WellandTribune.ca — is WellandTribune.ca biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens The Hamilton Spectator in a new tab)
The Hamilton Spectator — is The Hamilton Spectator biased? Our profile of this outlet
Centre
6- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens nanaimonewsnow.com in a new tab)
nanaimonewsnow.com — is nanaimonewsnow.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Ckpg Today in a new tab)
Ckpg Today — is Ckpg Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Medicine Hat News in a new tab)
Medicine Hat News — is Medicine Hat News biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens meadowlakeNOW in a new tab)
meadowlakeNOW — is meadowlakeNOW biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Battlefords NOW in a new tab)
Battlefords NOW — is Battlefords NOW biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Winnipeg Free Press in a new tab)
Winnipeg Free Press — is Winnipeg Free Press biased? Our profile of this outlet
Right
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Not rated
2- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Loonie Politics in a new tab)
Loonie Politics — is Loonie Politics biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say (opens Airdrie City View in a new tab)
Airdrie City View — is Airdrie City View biased? Our profile of this outlet
How did this read?
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