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Appeals court sides with Nevada in prediction market regulation fight

Ruling states Kalshi's sports contracts are gambling, not federally regulated swaps.

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Appeals court sides with Nevada in prediction market regulation fight

What this story says

  • A federal appeals court rejected Kalshi's attempt to prevent Nevada from regulating its prediction markets.
  • The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Kalshi's prediction market contracts for sporting events are sports bets, not federally regulated swaps.
  • The court found that federal commodity trading law does not prevent Nevada from applying its gambling regulations to Kalshi's sports event contracts.
  • The ruling is part of a broader legal battle involving about 20 states over the regulation of prediction markets.

Who covered it

Left 19%(18)Centre 79%(76)Right 2%(2)

Percentages are shares of the 96 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 25 of the 121 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .

Trust

60/100

Craft

70/100

Hype

20/100

121 sources · methodology

Missing from the right

Only 2 of the 96 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated right.

A reader who follows the right would not have seen this. We report the absence rather than explain it: outlets choose what to cover for many reasons, and we have no evidence about which one applies here.

A federal appeals court has ruled that Nevada can regulate Kalshi's prediction markets, rejecting the company's efforts to block state oversight. The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals determined that Kalshi's contracts based on sporting events are sports bets and not federally regulated financial swaps. This decision represents a significant victory for states asserting their authority over prediction market platforms.

Conflicting rulings on federal preemption

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals stated that Kalshi failed to demonstrate that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Nevada's gambling laws. In its written opinion, the court noted that the substance of the contracts offered on Kalshi's platform is sports gambling, irrespective of how the company labels them. This ruling contrasts with a previous decision by the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which had concluded that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive authority over sports-related event contracts on Kalshi. The 9th Circuit panel sent the question of Kalshi's trading on election contracts back to a lower court for further consideration.

What the coverage left out

None of the left- or centre-rated reports mentioned the specific cost estimate for the prediction market contracts, if any were provided. The full reports from CBS News and Associated Press News did not include details on the financial value of the contracts or the potential economic impact of the ruling.

Coverage settled. We checked this 10 times and stopped on 3 Sept 2026, 12:00. The figures above are what it finished at.

How each side covered it

Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.

Left

18 rated outlets

  • Associated Press News, The Seattle Times, The Hamilton Spectator, CNN, CNBC, The Record, Mashable, The New Republic, Arizona Mirror and The Sun Chronicle all reported that a federal appeals‑court panel refused to let Kalshi restart trading on sports and election contracts in Nevada while the company contests the state’s regulatory effort.
  • The Associated Press full report added Nevada attorney‑general statements calling the ruling a major victory, a Kalshi comment that it will seek further review, and context that roughly twenty states are involved in similar prediction‑market litigation and that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission traditionally oversees commodity markets.
  • None of the digest‑only pieces mentioned the attorney‑general’s quote, Kalshi’s intention to seek review, the estimate of twenty states in related lawsuits, or the CFTC’s historical role; those specifics appear only in the Associated Press report.

Centre

76 rated outlets

  • Centre-rated reports focused on the court's decision that Kalshi's prediction market contracts are sports bets, not federally regulated swaps. CBS News reported that the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals said Kalshi failed to show that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Nevada gambling laws. The court stated that Kalshi's prediction market contracts are sports bets, not federally regulated swaps. CBS News quoted one of the judges, Ryan Nelson, who wrote, "The substance of the sports event contracts offered on Kalshi's DCM is sports gambling, regardless of whether Kalshi calls them swaps." WBAL, Ottumwa Courier, Devdiscourse, and Winnipeg Free Press also reported that the federal appeals court panel refused to let Kalshi restart trading on sports and elections events in Nevada. The Nevada Independent noted that the 9th Circuit panel disagreed "with Kalshi's overly broad reading" that the Commodity Exchange Act allows it to offer sports event contracts.

Right

2 rated outlets

  • Right-rated outlets reported that a federal appeals court ruled Nevada can regulate sports-related prediction contracts. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected arguments that these contracts are federally regulated financial instruments.
  • The Daily Wire and California Globe stated the ruling was a significant setback for the prediction market industry. Both outlets noted the court rejected challenges from Kalshi and Crypto.com.
  • The California Globe specified the ruling affirmed Nevada’s gaming regulators’ authority. It also reported the court found the contracts to be sports bets, not federal ‘swaps’.

Questions about this coverage

How did the left and right cover Appeals court sides with Nevada in prediction market regulation fight?
Of the 96 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 19% are rated left, 79% are rated centre, 2% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 121. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
Is Appeals court sides with Nevada in prediction market regulation fight left or right?
The story itself is neither. What can be counted is who has covered it, and 79% of the 96 rated outlets on it are rated centre — so far this is a story carried mostly by the centre. Coverage of this one has settled, so that is unlikely to move much now.
Is the coverage of Appeals court sides with Nevada in prediction market regulation fight biased?
Appeals court sides with Nevada in prediction market regulation fight is one event reported by 121 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
Which side is not reporting Appeals court sides with Nevada in prediction market regulation fight?
When we first saw this story, outlets rated right had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
Which outlets covered Appeals court sides with Nevada in prediction market regulation fight?
121 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
What did the appeals court rule regarding Kalshi and Nevada?
A federal appeals court ruled that Nevada can regulate Kalshi's prediction markets. The court determined that Kalshi's contracts based on sporting events are sports bets and not federally regulated financial swaps, rejecting Kalshi's argument that federal law preempts state gambling regulations.
Why is this ruling significant for states?
The ruling is significant because it supports states' authority to regulate prediction markets under their own gambling laws. It is part of a larger legal conflict involving approximately 20 states that are litigating over who has regulatory oversight of these platforms.
Did all courts rule the same way on this issue?
No, the rulings have differed. While the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals sided with Nevada, a previous decision by the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals found that the CFTC has exclusive control over sports-related event contracts on Kalshi, reaching a different conclusion on federal preemption.

Read it at the source

121 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.

Left

18
Show 10 more

Centre

76
Show 68 more

Right

2

Not rated

25
Show 17 more

How did this read?

About the coverage, not about the story. We do not ask whether you agree with what happened — we have no honest use for that answer.

Nevada regulates Kalshi | MediaBias News