Bobby Pulido leads Monica De La Cruz in Texas 15th District poll
A House Majority PAC-sponsored survey shows the Democrat ahead 51% to 45% in a district Trump carried by 18 points
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This article was written at the MediaBias News desk from the one-paragraph digests an aggregator publishes for each of the outlets listed below it, together with 2 of those outlets' own reports read in full. How we do it
Left: Bobby Pulido, singer and candidate for the 15th district of Congress in Texas, speaks at a press conference during La Cura Fest by Carin Leon at EXPOGAN on March 15, 2026 in Hermosillo, Mexico. Right: Monica De La Cruz arrives to a House Republican Conference meeting in the U.S. Capitol Building on July 21, 2026, in Washington, DC.
Photograph: Newsweek (embedded from source)
What this story says
- A House Majority PAC poll shows Democrat Bobby Pulido leading Republican Monica De La Cruz 51% to 45% in Texas’ 15th Congressional District, a district Donald Trump carried by nearly 18 points in 2024.
- The poll was conducted by Normington Petts and Associates from 23-28 July 2026 among 500 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%.
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on 30 July 2026, citing Democratic momentum but still favouring De La Cruz.
- Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show Pulido with 67% and De La Cruz with 30-41% in the TX-15 race.
Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz 51% to 45% in a new poll of Texas’ 15th Congressional District, according to a survey sponsored by House Majority PAC and conducted by Normington Petts and Associates. The poll, shared with Newsweek on 4 August 2026, sampled 500 likely voters from 23-28 July 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%.
The district, redrawn in 2025, was carried by Donald Trump by nearly 18 points in the 2024 presidential election. De La Cruz first won the seat in 2022, becoming the first Republican to represent it since its creation in 1901. She defeated Democrat Michelle Vallejo again in 2024, securing 57.1% of the vote to Vallejo’s 42.9%.
A previous poll conducted by WelcomePAC from 18-25 May 2026 also showed Pulido ahead, 48% to 46%, among 802 likely voters. That survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1%, found Pulido had 73% name identification and a net favorability rating of plus eight. Only 36% of voters said De La Cruz deserved reelection, including 8% of self-identified independents.
Prediction markets have also shifted toward Pulido. At the time of writing, Kalshi’s TX-15 market listed Pulido at 67% and De La Cruz at 41%, while Polymarket showed Pulido at 67% and De La Cruz at 30%. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on 30 July 2026, noting that the district, though still favouring Republicans, had become a credible Democratic target.
What the coverage left out
No left- or right-rated outlet ran this story at all. The only report published was from Newsweek, rated centre.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
We hold no leaning breakdown for this story, so there is nothing to report about the left.
Centre
- Newsweek led its report with the House Majority PAC poll showing Pulido ahead 51% to 45%. The article framed the race as a test of whether Republican gains with Latino voters in South Texas could hold in a midterm environment less favourable to the GOP. It included the poll’s methodology, the previous WelcomePAC survey, prediction market data, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s rating change.
- Newsweek quoted Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s analysis directly: “a district Trump won by nearly 20 points ‘increasingly looks like a very real Democratic target.’” The report also noted that forecasters had not declared Pulido the favourite, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball maintaining a Leans Republican rating. It described the district’s history, De La Cruz’s 2022 and 2024 victories, and the impact of redistricting.
Right
We hold no leaning breakdown for this story, so there is nothing to report about the right.
Read it at the source
1 outlet, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Centre
1Right
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Not rated
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
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