Farage sets Reform UK talks condition as party slips to third in polls

Reform UK has slipped to third place in a new opinion poll, with 18% support, behind Labour on 27% and the Conservatives on 23%. The survey, conducted by Lord Ashcroft between 30 July and 3 August 2026, showed the Greens close behind Reform on 15%. The poll was published as Nigel Farage ruled out talks with Rupert Lowe, leader of the rival right-wing party Restore Britain, unless Lowe expels co-founder Charlie Downes.

Farage said at a press conference in Westminster that Downes and other figures in Restore Britain’s orbit had made statements he described as unacceptable. He referred to Downes’ recent remarks, which campaigners against antisemitism said perpetuated an antisemitic trope, and to a Restore Britain backer who has advocated for the removal of all Jews from the UK. Lowe has previously said the backer, Steve Laws, has no role in the party’s decision-making but is welcome to support it.

Lowe rejected Farage’s demand in a post on X, writing that expelling Downes would mean putting a young man out of work as he prepares to start a family. Lowe had earlier offered to set aside past disagreements with Farage to work together, but set conditions including the exclusion of Conservative defectors from a future Reform cabinet. Farage also used the press conference to announce plans to deport foreign prisoners to countries including El Salvador, a policy Reform said would free up 10,000 UK prison spaces.

The Lord Ashcroft poll projected Labour would win 309 seats if an election were held now, 17 short of a majority, with the Conservatives on 192 and Reform on 31. The National reported this projection. A separate Ipsos poll, conducted over a similar period, put Labour on 28%, Reform on 25% and the Conservatives on 18%, projecting Labour would win 292 seats, Reform 180 and the Conservatives 57. The National carried both projections.

All six left-rated digests led on Reform UK’s drop to third place in the Lord Ashcroft poll. Politico Europe’s full report focused on Farage’s demand that Lowe expel Downes, quoting Farage’s statement that Reform members and voters would be “utterly shocked” if he met with Downes. The report also detailed Farage’s reference to a Restore Britain backer advocating the removal of all Jews from the UK. The New Statesman’s digest described the difficulty of uniting the radical right, while The Canary’s digest highlighted Reform’s declining polling as part of a longer trend.

The National’s full report led on Reform UK’s third-place position in the Lord Ashcroft poll, noting Labour’s nine-point lead and the Greens’ close fourth place. It included both the Lord Ashcroft and Ipsos seat projections, which differed on whether Reform or the Conservatives would be the second-largest party. The report quoted Lord Ashcroft’s comment that the “Burnham Bounce” was real but cautioned that voters were waiting for the new prime minister’s next move.

All three right-rated digests led on Reform UK’s polling slump. The Daily Express’s digest focused on Farage’s announcement of plans to deport foreign prisoners, with its Whitehall editor present at the press conference. GB News’s digest described the poll as a “bombshell” and noted Reform’s support had fallen to its lowest level since the 2024 general election. The Jewish Chronicle’s digest reported calls for the Conservatives to end an arrangement giving Rupert Lowe a seat on a Commons committee, despite controversy over Downes’ comments.

None of the right-rated digests mentioned Farage’s demand that Lowe expel Charlie Downes as a condition for talks. None of the centre-rated or right-rated digests reported Farage’s reference to a Restore Britain backer advocating the removal of all Jews from the UK. The cost of Reform’s prison deportation plan was not mentioned in any of the digests or reports.