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Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise

President touts enthusiasm and claims of flipping races amid forecasts favouring Democrats.

AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

Published
Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise

What this story says

  • President Donald Trump asserted his campaign rallies are creating "crowds and enthusiasm" and helping Republicans "flip races all over the place."
  • Trump posted on Truth Social that his involvement in the midterm campaign would defy expectations of a Democratic takeover of Congress.
  • He also hinted at "big surprises coming up in a few weeks" during an event in Maryland.
  • Election simulations indicate an 88 percent chance of Democrats retaking the House and a 73 percent chance of securing the Senate majority.

Who covered it

Left 60%(6)Centre 20%(2)Right 20%(2)

Percentages are shares of the 10 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 6 of the 16 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .

Trust

42/100

Craft

57/100

Hype

41/100

16 sources · methodology

Thin on the right so far

Only 2 of the 10 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated right.

This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.

President Donald Trump has claimed his campaign rallies are generating "crowds and enthusiasm" and that Republicans are "flipping races all over the place." He posted on Truth Social that his involvement in the midterm campaign would upend expectations that Democrats will take control of Congress. Trump also hinted at "big surprises coming up in a few weeks" during an event in Maryland. Election simulations give Democrats an 88 percent chance of retaking the House and a 73 percent chance of securing a Senate majority. Trump has faced political headwinds, with his approval rating hovering near record lows and voters concerned about the economy.

Disagreement on rally impact

The Independent reported that Trump's rallies have failed to fill venues, with empty seats visible at events in Ohio and Oklahoma. It also stated that television networks no longer consider his appearances a significant draw, leading him to criticise outlets like Fox News. In contrast, Anadolu Ajansı, Avaz.ba, bloomberght.com, Haberler, and El Periodista Online reported Trump's claim that his rallies have "changed things around" or "turned the tide" of the election race.

Omissions

None of the right-rated reports mention the election simulations that give Democrats an 88 percent chance of retaking the House and a 73 percent chance of securing the Senate majority. None of the centre-rated reports mention the specific claims made by President Trump about Iran attacking Los Angeles and San Diego.

Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 4 times, most recently on 7 Oct 2026, 00:45, and will add the sides that appear.

How other outlets pictured it

Which photograph to run is each newsroom’s own choice. The leaning beside a name is that outlet’s published rating, not a claim that the pictures divide along it. Every picture is shown from the outlet’s own server and links to the article it ran in.

President Donald Trump throws a pen he used to sign an executive order into the crowd at a campaign rally at the Pinnacle Bank Expo Center, Monday, October 5, 2026, in Grand Island, Nebraska.
NewsweekCentre
Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise
Joe.My.God.Left

How each side covered it

Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.

Left

6 rated outlets

  • Left-rated reports led on President Trump's claims about his rallies and the midterm elections, often contrasting them with polling data that favoured Democrats. The Independent's full report highlighted Trump's detachment from reality and the perilous political landscape for Republicans, noting that his rallies were not helping Republicans and that venues were not filling up. It also detailed his increasingly erratic commentary, including remarks about Iran potentially attacking Los Angeles and San Diego. Joe.My.God. and Raw Story focused on Trump's Truth Social posts about "flipping races" and a "midterm surprise." Mediaite and The Independent (digest) also featured Trump's claims of "unbelievable" crowds and a "midterm surprise," with Mediaite noting his assertion that "The Dumocrats never counted on this."

Centre

2 rated outlets

  • Centre-rated reports focused on President Trump's hints of "big surprises" and his claims of Republican momentum ahead of the midterms. Newsweek noted Trump's Truth Social post about a "Midterm Surprise" and his remarks in Maryland about "big surprises coming up." It also presented election simulations showing Democrats' chances of retaking Congress and mentioned that Trump faces political headwinds, with low approval ratings and voter concerns about the economy. Political Wire also highlighted Trump's hints at "big surprises" before the midterms.

Right

2 rated outlets

  • Right-rated reports highlighted President Trump's confidence in Republican success in the November 3 midterm elections. Anadolu Ajansı and Avaz.ba reported Trump's statement that Republicans will "do very well" and that "the meetings changed the situation." Avaz.ba also quoted Trump saying, "We're letting people know what the Republicans have accomplished, and it's incredible." Yonhap News Agency reported Trump bringing up a "surprise victory" theory and urging people to "watch out for the surprise."

Questions about this coverage

How did the left and right cover Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise?
Of the 10 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 60% are rated left, 20% are rated centre, 20% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 16. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
Is Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise left or right?
Too few of the outlets on this story carry a published leaning rating to say. 10 of them do, and this site does not characterise a field under 12: at that size one newsroom filing moves the share by ten points. The percentages above are the count as it stands.
Is the coverage of Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise biased?
Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise is one event reported by 16 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
Which side is not reporting Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise?
When we first saw this story, outlets rated right had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
Which outlets covered Trump Claims Rallies Will Cause Midterm Surprise?
16 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
What is Donald Trump claiming about the midterm elections?
President Donald Trump claims his rallies are generating significant "crowds and enthusiasm" and are helping Republicans "flip races all over the place." He has also teased a "midterm surprise" and suggested that his involvement will defy expectations of a Democratic takeover of Congress.
What do election simulations predict for the midterms?
Election simulations indicate a strong likelihood of Democratic gains. They give Democrats an 88 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives and a 73 percent chance of securing a majority in the Senate.
What has Donald Trump hinted about future events?
During an event in Maryland, President Donald Trump hinted at "big surprises coming up in a few weeks." This statement followed his Truth Social post about a "midterm surprise" and came amid his campaign rallies.

Read it at the source

16 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.

Left

6

Centre

2

Right

2

Not rated

6

How did this read?

About the coverage, not about the story. We do not ask whether you agree with what happened — we have no honest use for that answer.

Trump on Midterm Elections | MediaBias News