Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms
Projections show only three states with positive net approval for the president as Democrats eye congressional gains
AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made
Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms
Photograph: Newsweek (embedded from source)
What this story says
- Trump’s net approval is positive in only three states: Wyoming (+14), Idaho (+9), and West Virginia (+6).
- The Economist’s projections show Trump underwater in 47 states, with the District of Columbia at -83, the lowest.
- CNN analyst Harry Enten gives Democrats a 52% chance of winning both House and Senate in the midterms.
- Trump’s net approval among Hispanic male voters has fallen to -41, a 51-point swing since 2024.
Who covered it
Percentages are shares of the 7 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. Coverage measured .
Trust
80/100
Craft
95/100
Hype
55/100
7 sources · methodology
Thin on the right so far
None of the 7 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated right.
This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.
Donald Trump’s net approval rating is positive in only three US states, according to state-level projections published by The Economist. The estimates, based on polling data from YouGov, show Wyoming at +14, Idaho at +9, and West Virginia at +6. Every other state and the District of Columbia register negative net approval, with the District at -83, Vermont at -50, and Maryland at -48.
The projections indicate Trump’s approval is lowest in states that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Battleground states where Trump won in 2024 now show negative net approval, including Arizona (-23), Georgia (-31), Michigan (-27), Nevada (-27), Pennsylvania (-26), and Wisconsin (-28). Newsweek reported these figures, noting they could influence control of Congress in the upcoming midterms.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported a 52% probability that Democrats will win control of both the House and Senate in the midterms. Enten identified potential Democratic gains in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa, which could result in a 52-48 majority. He also noted a 51-point swing in net approval among Hispanic male voters, from +10 for Trump in 2024 to -41 in 2026.
What the coverage left out
No right-rated outlet ran this story at all. None of the left-rated digests mentioned the state-level approval projections published by The Economist. The centre-rated digests did not report the 51-point swing in Hispanic male voter approval.
Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 5 times, most recently on 18 Aug 2026, 00:00, and will add the sides that appear.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
5 rated outlets
- The five left-rated digests led on the shift in Hispanic male voter approval and the likelihood of Democratic control of Congress. Raw Story and Alternet both quoted Harry Enten’s description of the 51-point swing among Hispanic men as a "switcheroo" and "bonkers shifts". The Independent’s digest framed the story as Trump losing a demographic "key to his victory over Kamala Harris".
- Mediaite and nj carried Enten’s 52% probability for a Democratic sweep of Congress. Mediaite’s digest quoted Enten saying he was "surprised" by the result before analysing the data. None of the left-rated digests mentioned the state-level approval projections published by The Economist.
Centre
2 rated outlets
- Newsweek’s full report led on the state-level approval projections, naming the three states where Trump’s net approval is positive and the states where it is most negative. The article quoted White House spokesperson Davis Ingle, who called the 2024 election "the ultimate poll" and listed Trump’s accomplishments. The Oregonian’s digest focused on Enten’s midterm projections, reporting that Democrats could flip seats in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa to reach a 52-48 majority.
Right
0 rated outlets
No outlet rated right has run this story so far. We are still checking, and will say plainly if that does not change.
Read it at the source
7 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
5- CNN data guru says Trump has lost a demographic key to his victory over Kamala Harris (opens The Independent in a new tab)
The Independent — is The Independent biased? Our profile of this outlet
- ‘I Was Surprised!’ CNN Data Guru Reveals ‘Most Likely’ Midterm Election Outcome (opens Mediaite in a new tab)
- Polling analyst reveals ‘most likely scenario’ for midterms — and it’s bad news for Trump (opens nj in a new tab)
- Republicans get a 'bonkers' warning shot over key group's 'wrath' against Trump (opens Raw Story in a new tab)
- CNN Data guru sees 'bonkers shifts' in Trump losses with key demographic (opens Alternet in a new tab)
Centre
2Right
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Not rated
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Questions about this coverage
- How did the left and right cover Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms?
- Of the 7 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 71% are rated left, 29% are rated centre, 0% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
- Is Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms left or right?
- Too few of the outlets on this story carry a published leaning rating to say. 7 of them do, and this site does not characterise a field under 12: at that size one newsroom filing moves the share by ten points. The percentages above are the count as it stands.
- Is the coverage of Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms biased?
- Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms is one event reported by 7 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
- Which side is not reporting Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms?
- When we first saw this story, outlets rated right had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
- Which outlets covered Trump’s approval underwater in 47 states ahead of US midterms?
- 7 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
- Which states have positive net approval for Trump?
- The Economist’s projections show only three states with positive net approval for Trump: Wyoming (+14), Idaho (+9), and West Virginia (+6). Every other state and the District of Columbia register negative net approval, with the District at -83, the lowest.
- What is the likelihood of Democrats winning both House and Senate?
- CNN data analyst Harry Enten assigned a 52% probability that Democrats will win control of both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms. He identified potential gains in Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa that could lead to a 52-48 majority.
- How has Trump’s approval among Hispanic male voters changed?
- Trump’s net approval among Hispanic male voters has fallen to -41 points, a 51-point swing since 2024, when he led by 10 points. CNN’s Harry Enten described the shift as a "switcheroo" and "bonkers".
How did this read?
About the coverage, not about the story. We do not ask whether you agree with what happened — we have no honest use for that answer.
