Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes
The bank reversed its earlier stance, now expecting increases in September and December.
AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made
US Stock Market: Barclays turns hawkish on Fed, sees two rate hikes in 2026<br>
Photograph: Times of India (embedded from source)
What this story says
- Barclays now expects the US Federal Reserve to implement two 25 basis point interest rate increases this year.
- The previous forecast from Barclays was that rates would remain unchanged for the remainder of the year.
- The shift in Barclays' prediction is attributed to recent comments by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
- Markets are pricing in a 60.4% chance of a rate hike in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Who covered it
Percentages are shares of the 11 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 6 of the 17 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .
Trust
60/100
Craft
60/100
Hype
20/100
17 sources · methodology
Thin on the left so far
None of the 11 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated left.
This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.
Barclays has revised its forecast for US interest rates, now predicting two 25 basis point hikes by the Federal Reserve in September and December. This marks a reversal from its prior expectation that rates would be held steady through the end of the year. The change in outlook follows recent statements from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which have been interpreted as signalling a more hawkish monetary policy stance.
Warsh's remarks, delivered at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, indicated ongoing concerns about inflation and suggested that financial conditions might not yet be sufficiently restrictive. He noted that inflation remained elevated and labour market conditions were consistent with full employment, complicating the Fed's policy decisions. The combination of persistent price pressures and a strong labour market has increased the possibility of further tightening rather than easing.
Financial markets have responded to Warsh's comments by increasing their expectations for a rate hike. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 60.4% probability of a rate increase in September. Interest-rate futures also reflect a stronger expectation for near-term borrowing cost increases.
Coverage comparison
What the coverage left out
None of the left-rated reports covered this story. The right-rated reports did not mention the CME Group's FedWatch tool or the specific probability figure it assigned to a September rate hike.
Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 7 times, most recently on 31 Aug 2026, 15:45, and will add the sides that appear.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
0 rated outlets
No outlet rated left has run this story so far. We are still checking, and will say plainly if that does not change.
Centre
7 rated outlets
- Centre-rated reports led with Barclays' revised forecast of two interest rate hikes in September and December. These reports highlighted that this prediction reverses the bank's earlier view of no further rate changes for the year. They noted that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent remarks strengthened expectations of monetary tightening, citing his comments on elevated inflation and restrictive financial conditions. The market's pricing of a 60.4% probability for a September hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, was also a key point.
Right
4 rated outlets
- Right-rated reports also focused on Barclays' expectation of two 25 basis point rate increases in September and December. These reports mentioned that the shift followed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks, which signalled a more hawkish stance. The digests from these outlets stated that Barclays now expects these hikes after Warsh's latest comments. One report mentioned that Barclays sees two U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes as inflation concerns persist.
Questions about this coverage
- How did the left and right cover Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes?
- Of the 11 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 0% are rated left, 64% are rated centre, 36% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 17. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
- Is Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes left or right?
- Too few of the outlets on this story carry a published leaning rating to say. 11 of them do, and this site does not characterise a field under 12: at that size one newsroom filing moves the share by ten points. The percentages above are the count as it stands.
- Is the coverage of Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes biased?
- Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes is one event reported by 17 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
- Which side is not reporting Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes?
- When we first saw this story, outlets rated left had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
- Which outlets covered Barclays forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes?
- 17 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
- What is Barclays' new forecast for US interest rates?
- Barclays now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and again in December. This is a change from their previous forecast of no rate changes for the rest of the year.
- Why has Barclays changed its forecast?
- The change follows recent remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that strengthened expectations of further monetary tightening. Warsh indicated that inflation remained elevated and financial conditions were not sufficiently restrictive.
- What is the market's expectation for a September rate hike?
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 60.4% probability of a rate hike in September, reflecting increased expectations following Warsh's comments.
Read it at the source
17 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Centre
7- Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech (opens Investing.com in a new tab)
Investing.com — is Investing.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Barclays forecasts two Fed rate hikes after Warsh Jackson Hole speech (opens Quartz in a new tab)
- Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year (opens cedarnews.net in a new tab)
cedarnews.net — is cedarnews.net biased? Our profile of this outlet
- US Stock Market: Barclays turns hawkish on Fed, sees two rate hikes in 2026 (opens The Economic Times in a new tab)
The Economic Times — is The Economic Times biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech (opens WTVB in a new tab)
- Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech (opens Reuters in a new tab)
- Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech (opens Market Screener in a new tab)
Market Screener — is Market Screener biased? Our profile of this outlet
Right
4- Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech (opens The Star Kuala Lumpur in a new tab)
The Star Kuala Lumpur — is The Star Kuala Lumpur biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Barclays Sees Two U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Hikes as Inflation Concerns Persist (opens [your]NEWS in a new tab)
[your]NEWS — is [your]NEWS biased? Our profile of this outlet
- US Stock Market: Barclays turns hawkish on Fed, sees two rate hikes in 2026 (opens Times of India in a new tab)
Times of India — is Times of India biased? Our profile of this outlet
- DNB Actually Sees More Transparency in the Fed's More Silent Course. (opens BNR Nieuwsradio in a new tab)
BNR Nieuwsradio — is BNR Nieuwsradio biased? Our profile of this outlet
Not rated
6- Barclays Expects to Raise US Interest in September and December. (opens alborsaanews.com in a new tab)
alborsaanews.com — is alborsaanews.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Rate Increases Fed 2026: Barclays Changes Forecast (opens The Cryptonomist in a new tab)
The Cryptonomist — is The Cryptonomist biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Fed's Warsh Signals Two More Rate Hikes After Hawkish Jackson Hole Remarks (opens Blockonomi in a new tab)
Blockonomi — is Blockonomi biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Barclays predicts two more Fed rate hikes after Warsh speech (opens Crypto Briefing in a new tab)
Crypto Briefing — is Crypto Briefing biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Barclays predicts two more Fed rate hikes after Warsh speech (opens Cryptocurrency News in a new tab)
Cryptocurrency News — is Cryptocurrency News biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Barclays sees two more Fed rate hikes this year after Warsh speech (opens BizToc in a new tab)
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