Parliamentary Budget Office cuts 2026‑27 growth outlook amid new U.S. tariffs
The forecast now shows 0.9% GDP growth for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027, with a $63.3 billion deficit for 2026‑27 and higher inflation expectations.
AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made
Parliamentary Budget Office cuts 2026‑27 growth outlook amid new U.S. tariffs
Photograph: CTV News (embedded from source)
What this story says
- The PBO trimmed its 2026‑27 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
- The projected budget deficit for 2026‑27 is now $63.3 billion, peaking at $70.2 billion in 2027‑28.
- The office assumes the Bank of Canada will raise its policy rate to 2.75% by mid‑2027.
- Higher energy prices are expected to keep 2026 inflation at an average of 2.8%.
Who covered it
Percentages are shares of the 29 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 4 of the 33 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .
Trust
50/100
Craft
65/100
Hype
20/100
33 sources · methodology
Thin on the right so far
None of the 29 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated right.
This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.
The Parliamentary Budget Office released a revised outlook on 20 October 2026, saying that new U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures have lowered its expectations for economic growth. The office now projects real gross domestic product growth of 0.9 per cent for the current year and 1.5 per cent for 2027, down from the 1.1 per cent and 1.6 per cent it announced in June.
Alongside the slower growth forecast, the PBO raised its estimate of the federal budget deficit to $63.3 billion for the 2026‑27 fiscal year. The deficit is expected to rise to $70.2 billion in 2027‑28, reflecting new spending measures that outweigh higher revenue. The office noted that the debt‑to‑GDP ratio will continue to climb over the next five years.
The report also contains assumptions about monetary policy and inflation. It expects the Bank of Canada to begin raising its policy rate in early 2027, reaching 2.75 per cent by mid‑year. On price trends, the PBO foresees the annual inflation rate averaging 2.8 per cent in 2026 before easing to 2.4 per cent in 2027, driven largely by higher energy costs.
““Canada faces a more challenging economic and fiscal outlook than we projected in June.””
$63.3 billion
Projected deficit for 2026‑27
Higher than the June estimate by about $3 billion per year on average through 2030‑31
What the coverage left out
No left‑rated or right‑rated outlets published a story on this revision, so their perspectives are absent from the reporting record.
Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 5 times, most recently on 20 Oct 2026, 18:30, and will add the sides that appear.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
22 rated outlets
We have not written our reading of the left coverage of this story. The left-rated outlets that ran it are listed below.
Centre
7 rated outlets
- CTV News highlighted the link between the tariff dispute and the weaker outlook, leading with the headline “Ottawa trims economic forecast for 2026‑2027 amid new U.S. tariffs.” The article quoted parliamentary budget officer Annette Ryan, who said Canada faces a more challenging economic and fiscal outlook than projected in June and that “additional trade measures and ongoing uncertainty are weighing on growth in real output, what we produce as a country.”
Right
0 rated outlets
No outlet rated right has run this story so far. We are still checking, and will say plainly if that does not change.
Questions about this coverage
- How did the left and right cover Parliamentary Budget Office cuts 2026‑27 growth outlook amid new U.S…?
- Of the 29 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 76% are rated left, 24% are rated centre, 0% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 33. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
- Is Parliamentary Budget Office cuts 2026‑27 growth outlook amid new U.S… left or right?
- The story itself is neither. What can be counted is who has covered it, and 76% of the 29 rated outlets on it are rated left — so far this is a story carried mostly by the left. Coverage is still arriving and that can change, which is why the figure is dated rather than fixed.
- Is the coverage of Parliamentary Budget Office cuts 2026‑27 growth outlook amid new U.S… biased?
- Parliamentary Budget Office cuts 2026‑27 growth outlook amid new U.S. tariffs is one event reported by 33 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
- Which side is not reporting Parliamentary Budget Office cuts 2026‑27 growth outlook amid new U.S…?
- When we first saw this story, outlets rated right had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
- Which outlets covered Parliamentary Budget Office cuts 2026‑27 growth outlook amid new U.S…?
- 33 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
- What are the new real GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027?
- The PBO now expects real GDP to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027, down from the June projections of 1.1 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.
- How large is the projected budget deficit for 2026‑27?
- The office estimates the deficit will be $63.3 billion for the 2026‑27 fiscal year, with a peak of $70.2 billion in 2027‑28 as new spending outweighs higher revenues.
- What assumptions does the PBO make about the Bank of Canada’s policy rate?
- The PBO assumes the Bank of Canada will start raising its policy rate in early 2027 and will reach 2.75 per cent by mid‑year to keep inflation expectations anchored.
- Why did the PBO revise its outlook?
- The revision follows the breakdown of trade talks, the introduction of new U.S. tariffs and Canada’s counter‑tariffs, which the office says add uncertainty and weigh on real output growth.
Read it at the source
33 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
22- Budget watchdog trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens CBC News in a new tab)
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens thealbertan.com in a new tab)
thealbertan.com — is thealbertan.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Timmins Today in a new tab)
Timmins Today — is Timmins Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Thorold Today in a new tab)
Thorold Today — is Thorold Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens The Toronto Star in a new tab)
The Toronto Star — is The Toronto Star biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Sudbury in a new tab)
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens SooToday.com in a new tab)
SooToday.com — is SooToday.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Rocky Mountain Outlook in a new tab)
Rocky Mountain Outlook — is Rocky Mountain Outlook biased? Our profile of this outlet
Show 14 more
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Orillia Matters in a new tab)
Orillia Matters — is Orillia Matters biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Newmarket Today in a new tab)
Newmarket Today — is Newmarket Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Midland Today in a new tab)
Midland Today — is Midland Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Elora Fergus Today in a new tab)
Elora Fergus Today — is Elora Fergus Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Collingwood Today in a new tab)
Collingwood Today — is Collingwood Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Coast Reporter in a new tab)
Coast Reporter — is Coast Reporter biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Bradford Today in a new tab)
Bradford Today — is Bradford Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Bowen Island Undercurrent in a new tab)
Bowen Island Undercurrent — is Bowen Island Undercurrent biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Bay Today in a new tab)
- Parliamentary Budget Director--Reduced Growth and Projected Persistent Deficits in the Country (opens La Presse in a new tab)
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens The Record in a new tab)
The Record — is The Record biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens The Hamilton Spectator in a new tab)
The Hamilton Spectator — is The Hamilton Spectator biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens St Catharines Standard in a new tab)
St Catharines Standard — is St Catharines Standard biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens NiagaraFallsReview.ca in a new tab)
NiagaraFallsReview.ca — is NiagaraFallsReview.ca biased? Our profile of this outlet
Centre
7- Ottawa trims economic forecast for 2026-2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens CTV News in a new tab)
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Narcity in a new tab)
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens meadowlakeNOW in a new tab)
meadowlakeNOW — is meadowlakeNOW biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Medicine Hat News in a new tab)
Medicine Hat News — is Medicine Hat News biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Ckpg Today in a new tab)
Ckpg Today — is Ckpg Today biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens CFJC Today Kamloops in a new tab)
CFJC Today Kamloops — is CFJC Today Kamloops biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Winnipeg Free Press in a new tab)
Winnipeg Free Press — is Winnipeg Free Press biased? Our profile of this outlet
Right
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Not rated
4- PBO trims Canadian economic forecasts amid U.S. tariffs, countermeasures (opens BizToc in a new tab)
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Western Investor in a new tab)
Western Investor — is Western Investor biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Loonie Politics in a new tab)
Loonie Politics — is Loonie Politics biased? Our profile of this outlet
- PBO trims economic forecast for 2026 and 2027 amid new U.S. tariffs (opens Airdrie City View in a new tab)
Airdrie City View — is Airdrie City View biased? Our profile of this outlet
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