Climate change doubled Canada wildfire risk in 2026, study finds

A study published on 6 August 2026 by World Weather Attribution found that human-caused climate change doubled the likelihood of extreme fire conditions in Canada. The research, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, examined weather patterns linked to wildfires in Ontario and the Northwest Territories. It concluded that such conditions would have occurred once every 40 years in a pre-industrial climate but are now expected every 2 to 15 years.

Over 3.8 million hectares of land burned in Canada by August 2026, an area comparable to the size of Switzerland. The fires displaced thousands of residents and exposed millions to hazardous smoke, which spread across parts of the U.S. and Canada. The study attributed the increased fire risk to higher temperatures, prolonged drought, and drier vegetation, all linked to global warming.

U.S. President Donald Trump blamed Canada’s forest management for the fires, stating on 21 July 2026 that poor practices contributed to the spread of flames. He suggested punitive measures against Canada, though no details were provided. Canadian scientists and the study’s authors countered that climate change, driven by historical emissions, was the primary factor behind the extreme conditions.

Disagreement over the cause of the fires

The World Weather Attribution study, as reported by Digi24 and the Associated Press, found that climate change doubled the likelihood of fire conditions in Ontario and the Northwest Territories. The study compared current conditions to a hypothetical world without 1.4°C of warming since the pre-industrial era. Associated Press quoted study co-author Jonathan Boucher, who stated that climate change, not forest management, was the root problem.

Trump’s remarks, carried by outlets including Santa Maria Times and Independent Español, framed the fires as a result of Canadian mismanagement. Associated Press reported that scientists, including University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, attributed the conditions to historical U.S. emissions, noting that smoke does not carry a passport but carbon pollution does.

What the coverage left out

None of the right-rated digests mentioned U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments blaming Canada for the fires. The centre-rated digests, while reporting the study’s findings, did not quote scientists rebutting Trump’s claims. The left-rated digests were the only ones to include direct criticism of Trump’s remarks, with the Associated Press report carrying the most detail.

Digi24’s full report was the only one to describe the feedback loop between wildfires and climate change, noting that fires release carbon dioxide, which accelerates warming. This detail was absent from all digests, including those rated left and centre.