James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate race, poll shows
A Fox News poll indicates a tight race for the Texas Senate seat, with Talarico holding a narrow lead.
AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate race, poll shows
Photograph: nytimespost.com (embedded from source)
What this story says
- James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51% to 49% among likely Texas voters in a Fox News poll.
- The poll shows Talarico with a net positive personal rating of 8 points, while Paxton's is 18 points underwater.
- Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47% in the Texas governor's race.
- Seven in 10 Texans consider the cost of living extremely important to their Senate vote.
Who covered it
Percentages are shares of the 6 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. Coverage measured .
Trust
60/100
Craft
65/100
Hype
20/100
6 sources · methodology
Thin on the left so far
None of the 6 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated left.
This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.
Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow 51% to 49% lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the Texas U.S. Senate seat, according to a Fox News poll. The poll, conducted between September 24-28, 2026, surveyed 1,203 Texas registered voters. Talarico has a net positive personal rating of 8 points, with 52% favorable and 44% unfavorable views, while Paxton's rating is 18 points underwater at 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Republicans are six times more likely than Democrats to view Paxton unfavorably.
In the Texas governor's race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47%. Abbott has a 52% job approval rating as governor. Seven in 10 Texans stated that the cost of living will be extremely important in their vote for the Senate. Nearly half of voters also cited Trump and immigration as extremely important, while one-third mentioned artificial intelligence.
Where the reports disagree
The New York Times Post, which published the full report, stated that Talarico's advantage widens to 7 points among the larger sample of registered voters, which was outside the margin of error and up from a 3-point edge in July. Other reports did not include this detail.
What the coverage left out
None of the right-rated reports mentioned the net positive personal rating of 8 points for James Talarico or the 18-point underwater rating for Ken Paxton, details that were present in the full report from the New York Times Post.
Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 5 times, most recently on 2 Oct 2026, 09:15, and will add the sides that appear.
How each side covered it
Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.
Left
0 rated outlets
No outlet rated left has run this story so far. We are still checking, and will say plainly if that does not change.
Centre
1 rated outlet
- The centre-rated report from Political Wire led with the headline "Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Race." It highlighted the 51% to 49% lead for Talarico over Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, citing the Fox News poll. The report also mentioned Greg Abbott's lead over Gina Hinojosa in the governor's race.
Right
5 rated outlets
- The right-rated reports focused on the tight U.S. Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. The New York Times Post, which provided a full report, detailed Talarico's narrow 51-49% lead, his positive personal ratings compared to Paxton's negative ones, and the enthusiasm gap among Republicans. It also noted that Republicans were six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably than Democrats viewed Talarico. The reports mentioned Greg Abbott's lead over Gina Hinojosa in the governor's race and highlighted the importance of the cost of living to voters. The Jewish Insider digest noted that Jewish voters in Texas felt caught between the two candidates.
Questions about this coverage
- How did the left and right cover James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate race, poll shows?
- Of the 6 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 0% are rated left, 17% are rated centre, 83% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
- Is James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate race, poll shows left or right?
- Too few of the outlets on this story carry a published leaning rating to say. 6 of them do, and this site does not characterise a field under 12: at that size one newsroom filing moves the share by ten points. The percentages above are the count as it stands.
- Is the coverage of James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate race, poll shows biased?
- James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate race, poll shows is one event reported by 6 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
- Which side is not reporting James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate race, poll shows?
- When we first saw this story, outlets rated left had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
- Which outlets covered James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51-49 in Texas Senate race, poll shows?
- 6 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
- Who is leading in the Texas Senate race according to the Fox News poll?
- According to a Fox News poll, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51% to 49% among likely Texas voters. The poll was conducted from September 24-28, 2026, with a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points for likely voters.
- What are the personal ratings of the Senate candidates?
- James Talarico has a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable). Ken Paxton's rating is 18 points underwater (40% favorable vs. 58% unfavorable). Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably than Democrats view Talarico.
- Who is leading in the Texas governor's race?
- Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47% in the Texas governor's race, according to the same Fox News poll. Abbott also holds a 52% job approval rating as governor.
- What issues are most important to Texas voters in the Senate race?
- Seven in 10 Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote. Nearly half of voters also cited Trump and immigration as extremely important, while one-third mentioned artificial intelligence technology.
Read it at the source
6 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.
Left
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
Centre
1Right
5- Texas Jewish voters at a loss in the state’s hotly contested Senate race (opens Jewish Insider in a new tab)
Jewish Insider — is Jewish Insider biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Fox News Poll: It’s a Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton (opens wfmd.com in a new tab)
- Fox News Poll: It’s a Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton - NEW YORK TIMES POST (opens nytimespost.com in a new tab)
nytimespost.com — is nytimespost.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Fox News Poll: It’s a Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton – Democratic Accent (opens democraticaccent.com in a new tab)
democraticaccent.com — is democraticaccent.com biased? Our profile of this outlet
- Fox News Poll: It’s a Lone Star Senate showdown between Talarico and Paxton (opens Fox News in a new tab)
Not rated
0No outlet in this group ran the story.
How did this read?
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