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Politics29 outlets ran this5 min read

Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October Election

A Quaest survey shows the gap narrowing between the incumbent president and his right-wing challenger, with both facing high rejection rates.

AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

Published
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva speaks at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, on August 5, 2026 [Andre Borges/EPA]

What this story says

  • A Quaest poll released on 14 August shows Lula leading Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated runoff, within the two-point margin of error.
  • The gap has narrowed from a five-point lead for Lula in an earlier poll on 5 August.
  • Bolsonaro’s rejection rate stands at 54%, two points higher than Lula’s 52%.
  • The first round of Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for 4 October.

Who covered it

Left 16%(3)Centre 31%(6)Right 53%(10)

Percentages are shares of the 19 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 10 of the 29 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .

Trust

74/100

Craft

95/100

Hype

15/100

29 sources · methodology

Thin on the left so far

Only 3 of the 19 outlets with a published leaning rating that ran this story are rated left.

This story is still being watched, so it is a count and not yet a finding. Coverage keeps arriving for hours after an event, and a side that has published nothing this morning may publish by tonight. If it is still true when we stop checking, we will say so plainly.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by three percentage points in a simulated runoff for the October presidential election, according to a Quaest poll released on 14 August. The survey, conducted between 10 and 13 August, shows Lula at 43% and Bolsonaro at 40%, a result the pollster describes as a statistical tie given its two-point margin of error.

The gap has narrowed since an earlier Quaest poll on 5 August, which had Lula at 44% and Bolsonaro at 39%. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38%, while Bolsonaro polls at 31%. Three other candidates trail far behind: Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado at 4% each, and Romeu Zema at 2%.

Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is running as the right-wing candidate after his father was barred from the race. The elder Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible by Brazil’s top electoral court for abusing his power while in office and was later convicted over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

The poll also measured rejection rates: 54% of voters said they would not vote for Bolsonaro, while 52% said the same of Lula. The survey sampled 2,004 voters and was commissioned by the Brazilian media group Globo.

What the coverage left out

None of the right-rated digests mention the rejection rates for either candidate. None of the centre-rated digests report the first-round polling figures or the rejection rates. The left-rated reports are the only ones to carry Lula’s remarks about foreign interference in Brazil’s elections.

Tags:#BrazilElection#LulaDaSilva#FlavioBolsonaro#QuaestPoll#LatinAmericaPolitics#PresidentialRace

Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 5 times, most recently on 15 Aug 2026, 22:30, and will add the sides that appear.

How each side covered it

Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.

Left

3 rated outlets

  • The left-rated reports led on Lula’s narrow lead and the high rejection rates for both candidates. Al Jazeera’s full report described the race as a "statistical tie" and noted that Bolsonaro’s rejection rate exceeds Lula’s. It also quoted Lula’s remarks at his re-election launch, where he warned against foreign interference in Brazil’s mineral wealth and elections, singling out the US, China and France.
  • MercoPress’s digest highlighted the rejection rates, reporting that Bolsonaro’s 54% rejection rate is two points higher than Lula’s. CartaCapital’s digest noted the technical tie in the second-round scenario and specified the poll’s sample size and margin of error.

Centre

6 rated outlets

  • The centre-rated digests focused on the narrowing gap between the two candidates. Devdiscourse’s full report described the race as "tightening" and noted the slight decrease in Lula’s lead from the earlier poll. It did not mention the rejection rates or the first-round scenario.
  • Investing.com, Bloomberg, WTVB, The Mighty 790 KFGO and other centre-rated digests all led with the narrowing lead, using phrasing such as "Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows". None of the centre-rated digests mentioned the candidates’ rejection rates or the first-round polling figures.

Right

10 rated outlets

  • The right-rated digests uniformly described the race as a "technical tie" or "statistical tie". Anadolu Ajansı, Globo, The Star Kuala Lumpur, The Straits Times and eight other right-rated digests all led with Bolsonaro’s gains, using phrases like "narrow lead" or "technical tie".
  • Clarín’s digest described the race as starting "with a technical tie", while Globo’s digest explicitly stated that the candidates are "technically tied within the margin of error". None of the right-rated digests mentioned the candidates’ rejection rates or the first-round polling figures.

Read it at the source

29 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.

Left

3

Centre

6

Right

10
Show 2 more

Not rated

10
Show 2 more

Questions about this coverage

How did the left and right cover Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October…?
Of the 19 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 16% are rated left, 31% are rated centre, 53% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 29. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
Is Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October… left or right?
Neither side dominates it. Of the 19 rated outlets on this story, 16% are rated left, 31% are rated centre, 53% are rated right, and no side holds the 70% this site would want before calling a field one-sided. A story is not left or right in any case; the outlets that carried it are what carry ratings.
Is the coverage of Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October… biased?
Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October Election is one event reported by 29 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
Which side is not reporting Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October…?
When we first saw this story, outlets rated left had barely covered it. Coverage accretes for hours after an event, so that is where to look rather than a verdict — the split above is the current count, and it is the one to read.
Which outlets covered Lula Leads Bolsonaro by Three Points in Brazil Poll Ahead of October…?
29 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
What does the latest poll show about Brazil’s presidential race?
The Quaest poll released on 14 August shows Lula leading Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated runoff, within the two-point margin of error. This makes the race a statistical tie. The gap has narrowed from a five-point lead for Lula in an earlier poll on 5 August.
What are the rejection rates for Lula and Bolsonaro?
The Quaest poll indicates a rejection rate of 54% for Bolsonaro and 52% for Lula. This means over half of voters say they would not vote for either candidate. Only the left-rated reports carried these figures.
Why is Flávio Bolsonaro running instead of his father?
Jair Bolsonaro was barred from running after Brazil’s top electoral court ruled he had abused his power while in office. He was later convicted over a plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula. Flávio Bolsonaro is now the right-wing candidate.
Which outlets reported on Lula’s warnings about foreign interference?
Al Jazeera’s full report quoted Lula’s remarks at his re-election launch, where he warned against foreign interference in Brazil’s mineral wealth and elections. No other outlet in the reports below carried these remarks.

How did this read?

About the coverage, not about the story. We do not ask whether you agree with what happened — we have no honest use for that answer.

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