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2026 likely second-hottest year, EU climate monitor reports

Global temperatures virtually certain to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, with October 2026 the warmest on record.

AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

Published
A child plays among fountains to cool off during hot weather in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Friday, Aug. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/ Fatima Shbair)

What this story says

  • 2026 is projected to be the second-hottest year on record, according to the EU's climate monitor.
  • Global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2026.
  • October 2026 was the warmest October globally, with temperatures 1.75C above pre-industrial levels.
  • An exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern is intensifying human-driven global warming.

Who covered it

Left 29%(17)Centre 39%(23)Right 32%(19)

Percentages are shares of the 59 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 75 of the 134 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .

Trust

48/100

Craft

60/100

Hype

41/100

134 sources · methodology

The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record, with global temperatures virtually certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The EU's climate monitor, Copernicus, reported that October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, with average surface air temperatures 1.75C above pre-industrial times (1850-1900). This marks the third consecutive month to exceed the 1.5C threshold.

Copernicus stated that 2026 has a 20 per cent chance of tying or exceeding 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded. The four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5C, the limit set in the Paris Agreement to avert the worst impacts of climate change. The report links the record warmth to an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern, which is turbocharging human-driven global warming.

Disagreement on 2024 comparison

While the EU's climate monitor projects 2026 to be the second-hottest year, reports differ on its comparison to 2024. CTV News, The Korea Times, rthk.hk, and Radio France Internationale state that 2026 still has a "20 per cent chance of tying or exceeding" 2024 as the warmest year. However, SANA reports the current year is the second hottest after 2024, and Le Devoir notes Copernicus concludes there is about a 20% chance of 2024 being equalled or exceeded. Devdiscourse and Naftemporiki do not mention 2024 in their reports.

What the coverage left out

None of the left-rated digests mention the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5C. None of the centre-rated digests mention the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5C. None of the right-rated digests mention the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5C.

Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 4 times, most recently on 6 Nov 2026, 17:45, and will add the sides that appear.

How each side covered it

Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.

Left

17 rated outlets

  • Seven left-rated reports led on the projection that 2026 will be the second-hottest year on record. The Korea Times, rthk.hk, SANA, in.gr, Xinhua, La Presse, and Novinky.cz all carried this central finding. Xinhua's headline stated that 2026 is "virtually certain to exceed 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold -- EU climate monitor." La Presse reported that "The Year 2026 Sees It Become the Second Hottest on the Planet." Novinky.cz focused on October being the warmest globally on record, noting it was the third consecutive month to exceed the 1.5C threshold.

Centre

23 rated outlets

  • Eight centre-rated reports highlighted the projection for 2026 to be the second-hottest year. Business Recorder, Devdiscourse, Lietuvos Radijas ir Televizija, Tagesschau, Le Devoir, and Radio France Internationale all carried this main point. Tagesschau's headline stated that the "1.5 Degree Mark Is Torn Again" by 2026, shortly before the COP31 climate conference. Le Devoir reported that "2026 in the Process of Becoming the Second Hottest Year ever..." Lietuvos Radijas ir Televizija noted that the "EU Climate Agency: 2026 Likely to Be Second Hottest Year on Record." Devdiscourse's headline focused on the warmest October on record and the likelihood of 2026 exceeding 1.5C.

Right

19 rated outlets

  • Seven right-rated reports focused on the record-breaking October and the projected warming. Globo's headline stated "World Had the Hottest October Ever Recorded." Dailymail.com reported "Last month was the warmest October EVER recorded globally." Times Live's headline read "Warmest October on record, 2026 likely to exceed critical heat measurement." Kronen Zeitung's headline warned "Horror Forecast: 2026 Skips 1.5 Degree Mark." NOS reported that "2026 Will Almost Certainly Exceed 1.5 Degrees of Warming After a Record-Warm October."

Questions about this coverage

How did the left and right cover 2026 likely second-hottest year, EU climate monitor reports?
Of the 59 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 29% are rated left, 39% are rated centre, 32% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 134. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
Is 2026 likely second-hottest year, EU climate monitor reports left or right?
Neither side dominates it. Of the 59 rated outlets on this story, 29% are rated left, 39% are rated centre, 32% are rated right, and no side holds the 70% this site would want before calling a field one-sided. A story is not left or right in any case; the outlets that carried it are what carry ratings.
Is the coverage of 2026 likely second-hottest year, EU climate monitor reports biased?
2026 likely second-hottest year, EU climate monitor reports is one event reported by 134 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
Which outlets covered 2026 likely second-hottest year, EU climate monitor reports?
134 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
What is the EU climate monitor's projection for 2026?
The EU's climate monitor, Copernicus, projects that 2026 is likely to be the second-hottest year on record. Global temperatures are also considered virtually certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2026.
What was the significance of October 2026?
October 2026 was the warmest October ever recorded globally. Average global surface air temperatures reached 1.75 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, marking the third consecutive month to surpass the 1.5C threshold.
What is contributing to the rising global temperatures?
According to the EU's climate monitor, an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern is a significant factor turbocharging human-driven global warming. This natural phenomenon temporarily raises sea temperatures, influencing weather patterns globally.

Read it at the source

134 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.

Left

17
Show 9 more

Centre

23
Show 15 more

Right

19
Show 11 more

Not rated

75
Show 67 more

How did this read?

About the coverage, not about the story. We do not ask whether you agree with what happened — we have no honest use for that answer.

2026 second-hottest year: EU climate monitor | MediaBias News