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Global warming to exceed 1.5C, UN report warns

Current policies put Earth on track for 2.8C warming by 2100, but drastic cuts could limit overshoot.

AI-assisted coverage comparison, editor-supervised · How this was made

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Un manifestante sostiene un globo terráqueo que incorpora una miniatura de la Torre Eiffel y hace referencia al objetivo de 1,5 grados establecido en el Acuerdo de París sobre el clima, durante una protesta organizada por el movimiento ecologista «Fridays for Future» frente a la Antigua Ópera de Fráncfort.Boris Roessler/Dpa / Europa Press

What this story says

  • Global warming is now certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, according to a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.
  • With current policies, the Earth is heading towards 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.
  • The best-case scenario projects temperatures peaking around 1.7-1.8 degrees Celsius mid-century before returning to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100.
  • Achieving the best-case scenario requires substantial reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions.

Who covered it

Left 26%(17)Centre 39%(26)Right 35%(23)

Percentages are shares of the 66 outlets carrying a published leaning rating. 57 of the 123 outlets we know ran this story carry no rating and are not counted in them. Coverage measured .

Trust

42/100

Craft

59/100

Hype

41/100

123 sources · methodology

The global average temperature is set to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a threshold established by the Paris Agreement. Decades of insufficient climate action have led to this point, according to the UN Environment Programme's (UNEP) annual report. The extent to which this 1.5-degree limit is exceeded, and for how long, depends on immediate global responses.

The report outlines a best-case scenario where global temperatures peak around 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius by mid-century and then decline to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below by 2100. However, this outcome necessitates significant and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. For every five years that CO2 emissions continue at current levels, global warming increases by approximately 0.1 degrees Celsius.

If current global policies remain in place, the Earth is projected to warm by 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, a level from which returning to 1.5 degrees Celsius is not possible, the report states. Even if all national climate targets are met, warming is estimated to reach 2.6 degrees Celsius. If all net-zero pledges are also fulfilled, the temperature rise by 2100 could be around 2.1 degrees Celsius.

Disagreement on future warming projections

While the UN Environment Programme report projects a potential warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 under current policies, some reports indicate different figures. Globo, for instance, notes the UN estimate that with stricter measures, heating could reach a peak of 1.7°C to 1.8°C around 2050 and then gradually decrease, returning to 1.5°C by 2100. However, the core message across reports is that the 1.5C threshold will be breached.

What the coverage left out

None of the centre or right-rated reports printed below mention the specific percentage reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions required by 2030, 2035, and 2040 to achieve the best-case scenario. These figures were stated in the full report from Ekstra Bladet and are corroborated by other sources that mention the need for drastic action.

Still developing. We have re-checked which outlets are covering this 3 times, most recently on 21 Oct 2026, 07:00, and will add the sides that appear.

How each side covered it

Our own reading of the reporting listed below, written from the outlets’ articles rather than quoted from them. The reasoning is set out on our methodology page.

Left

17 rated outlets

  • The left-rated outlets reported that the UN Environment Programme says the 1.5°C target is now unattainable and that projected warming will reach about 2.8°C by the end of the century, with mid-century temperatures of 1.7-1.8°C. La Vanguardia, Al-Monitor, La Presse, Le Monde, Le Temps, Liberation, Newcastle Herald, Novinky.cz, The Canberra Times, franceinfo.fr, SVT Nyheter and t-online all led on these projections and warned that current policies are insufficient.
  • La Vanguardia’s full report quoted UN Secretary-General António Guterres urging that every fraction of a degree matters, and PNUMA director Inger Andersen stressing the health and economic risks of additional warming. It also highlighted the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, a rise in U.S. emissions, and the added electricity demand from AI data centres.
  • The digests did not contain the detailed emission-reduction pathways La Vanguardia listed - 18% cuts by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 - nor the figure of 320 gigatonnes of CO2 that would need permanent removal. None of the digests mentioned cost estimates or financing needs, showing those specifics were omitted from the left-rated coverage.

Centre

26 rated outlets

  • Centre-rated reports focused on the inevitability of exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold and the urgent need for emissions cuts. Ekstra Bladet highlighted that the 1.5-degree limit cannot be avoided due to decades of insufficient climate action, quoting UN Secretary-General António Guterres stating, 'Exceeding is not surrendering.' They detailed the best-case scenario requiring specific emission reductions and noted that current policies lead to 2.8 degrees Celsius warming. Hola News also stressed the need for 'urgent and strict cuts' to minimize the overshoot. Volksfreund.de and Westfalenpost mentioned the 2.8-degree projection and the remaining hope, while Nature reported that limiting warming to the safest levels is likely out of reach.

Right

23 rated outlets

  • Right-rated reports acknowledged that global warming will inevitably exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, but also noted the possibility of a return to that level. Globo reported the UN's estimate of a peak around 1.7-1.8 degrees Celsius mid-century, followed by a gradual decrease to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, under stricter measures. BT stated that global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees, but it can come back down, according to a UN report.

Questions about this coverage

How did the left and right cover Global warming to exceed 1.5C, UN report warns?
Of the 66 outlets on this story carrying a published leaning rating, 26% are rated left, 39% are rated centre, 35% are rated right. Those percentages are shares of the rated outlets, not of every outlet that ran it, which was 123. The sections above set out what each side emphasised, in its own terms.
Is Global warming to exceed 1.5C, UN report warns left or right?
Neither side dominates it. Of the 66 rated outlets on this story, 26% are rated left, 39% are rated centre, 35% are rated right, and no side holds the 70% this site would want before calling a field one-sided. A story is not left or right in any case; the outlets that carried it are what carry ratings.
Is the coverage of Global warming to exceed 1.5C, UN report warns biased?
Global warming to exceed 1.5C, UN report warns is one event reported by 123 outlets, and this page does not rate the story as biased or unbiased. What it publishes is the spread: which outlets ran it, where named rating organisations place each of them on the spectrum, and what each side chose to lead with. A leaning rating describes an outlet's record over time, not this article, and the two should not be run together.
Which outlets covered Global warming to exceed 1.5C, UN report warns?
123 that we know of, every one of them listed further up this page with a link to its own report and to what we hold on the publisher. Nothing here is a summary of somebody else's summary: the outlets are named so the original reporting can be read.
Will global warming exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius?
Yes, according to a UN Environment Programme report, global warming will inevitably exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Decades of insufficient climate action have made this unavoidable, though the duration of the overshoot can be limited.
What is the projected warming by 2100 with current policies?
With current global climate policies in place, the Earth is heading towards 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. This is a significant increase from the 1.5-degree target.
Is there a scenario where temperatures return to 1.5 degrees Celsius?
Yes, the best-case scenario projects global temperatures peaking around 1.7-1.8 degrees Celsius mid-century and then gradually falling back to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. This outcome requires immediate and drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Read it at the source

123 outlets, grouped by the leaning a published rating gives them. Every headline links to the original; an underlined outlet name opens our profile of that publisher.

Left

17
Show 9 more

Centre

26
Show 18 more

Right

23
Show 15 more

Not rated

57
Show 49 more

How did this read?

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UN: Global warming to exceed 1.5C | MediaBias News