FAO warns global food prices will rise by end of 2026 due to wars and El Niño

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that global food prices will rise by the end of 2026 and continue increasing in 2027. Maximo Torero, the FAO’s chief economist, attributed the surge to wars in Iran and Ukraine, the El Niño weather phenomenon, and rising costs for fuel and fertiliser. Torero told Reuters that the impact of these factors would become visible in consumer prices within three to six months.

Australia, one of the world’s largest crop exporters, reported a 21% decline in winter crop production, linked to higher fuel and fertiliser prices. The FAO also noted that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route, would affect agricultural inputs such as oil and natural gas, which are used for pumping, packaging, and fertiliser production. In the U.S., the Farm Bureau estimated that farmers could lose $32 billion in 2027 without federal assistance, with every major crop projected to remain below breakeven.

El Niño’s impact on rainfall patterns was highlighted as a significant risk, with India’s monsoon already delayed and below-average rainfall expected. Torero warned that the combination of these factors could push tens of millions into acute food insecurity. The FAO’s warning was corroborated by reports from outlets across Africa, Europe, and the Americas, though some focused on immediate price increases while others emphasised future projections.

When the price surge begins

Outlets disagreed on whether the food price surge had already started. The Financial Post reported that global food prices had reached a three-year high in July, citing supply fears. HuffPost, however, quoted Torero as saying that while commodity prices had begun to rise, the impact on consumer food prices would not be visible until the end of 2026. Other outlets, including Globo and IOL Portugal, focused on the FAO’s projection of price increases by the end of the year without specifying whether the rise had already begun.

What the coverage left out

None of the right-rated digests mentioned the U.S. Farm Bureau’s estimate that farmers could lose $32 billion in 2027 without federal assistance. The figure was included only in HuffPost’s report. The FAO’s specific timeline for the transmission of commodity prices to consumer costs, three to six months, was also omitted from all digests, including those rated centre and right. Only HuffPost quoted Torero’s explanation of the delay.

The FAO’s warning that tens of millions could face acute food insecurity due to El Niño and other factors was not mentioned in any of the centre or right-rated digests. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz on agricultural inputs was also left out of all digests except HuffPost’s report.